Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1153 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016/

UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE NEEDED THIS EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EVENING IS THE ARRIVAL OF THE
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. IT CONTINUES
TO LOOK LIKE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH VERY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PRECIP SHIELD.

TVT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI TO DALLAS-
FORT WORTH TEXAS AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT IS BECOMING STATIONARY AS
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING NEAR DALLAS.
A SECONDARY WARM FRONT EXTENDS OUT FROM THIS DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS
LOUISIANA. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHWARD
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL ON SATURDAY.

SHOWERS WITH A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY MOVE BACK INTO LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE OCCURRED THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT THANKS TO THE
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY THE
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN
ARKANSAS. THIS WILL HELP DECENT INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE SECONDARY WARM FRONT WILL HELP TO BRING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND WILL HELP ENHANCE HELICITY. A FEW LOW TOPPED
SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE MAINLY NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ROUGHLY AROUND
00Z. ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE INTO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW JUST BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS
ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING
EASTWARD INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE SATURDAY
EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LIGHT DUSTING IN CERTAIN
SPOTS WITH LOCATIONS NEAR PARIS TENNESSEE SEEING THE BEST CHANCE.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY. THE CLOUDS
WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 30S TO THE UPPER 30S. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FRIGID AS THE
COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PRODUCE A GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO AROUND
20 DEGREES.

THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN AROUND THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS
ONE REINFORCING FRONT AFTER ANOTHER MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BY
THURSDAY...ONE OF THE REINFORCING FRONTS WILL STALL NEAR THE GULF
COAST AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG IT. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH ARCTIC AIR LIKELY STILL IN
PLACE...A WIDE RANGE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD FALL OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING
OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

IFR/LIFR LAYER WAS SLOWLY WORKING NORTH THROUGH MS AT 0545Z...
HAVING REACHED MEM...BUT YET TO ARRIVE AT NQA. LOWER CIGS AND
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ARKLAMISS.

TSRA ON TRACK FOR EARLY MORNING ARRIVAL AT MEM TOWARD 12Z...WITH
PEAK CHANCES NEAR 15Z.

ARCTIC FRONT PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...BUT TEMPS NOT
LIKELY SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SNOW ACCUM SATURDAY EVENING.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
407 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-091215-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
407 AM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG BOTH THE
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVERS. IN ADDITION...MAJOR RIVER
FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR OSCEOLA
ARKANSAS. SUCH RIVER FLOODING MAY CAUSE DAMAGE TO PROPERTY ON AND
AROUND THE RIVERS AND RELATED TRIBUTARIES. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR THE LATEST
RIVER FLOODING INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PARTS OF THE
MAIN STEM OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR THE LATEST RIVER FLOODING
INFORMATION.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON
SATURDAY EAST OF A MARTIN TENNESSEE TO SOMERVILLE TENNESSEE TO
COFFEEVILLE MISSISSIPPI LINE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS A SECONDARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY.

SJM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
141 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016

ARZ035-036-048-090830-
ST. FRANCIS AR-CRITTENDEN AR-CROSS AR-
141 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL UNTIL 230 AM CST FOR...

NORTHEASTERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

AT 141 AM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW HOME...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF HUGHES...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN ST. FRANCIS...CRITTENDEN AND CROSS COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3541 9090 3544 9054 3544 9016 3543 9015
      3542 9017 3538 9018 3537 9016 3538 9014
      3540 9014 3541 9012 3538 9008 3535 9011
      3531 9011 3530 9017 3528 9017 3525 9014
      3525 9010 3504 9030 3493 9038 3518 9095
TIME...MOT...LOC 0741Z 211DEG 32KT 3506 9048