Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Memphis, TN

486 
WWUS54 KMEG 141411
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
911 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

TNC075-167-141430-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0140.000000T0000Z-160714T1430Z/
TIPTON TN-HAYWOOD TN-
911 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON AND SOUTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES...

AT 911 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST
OF DANCYVILLE...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BROWNSVILLE...DANCYVILLE...MASON...STANTON...OAKVIEW...GIFT...
GAINESVILLE...KEELING...COTTON LAKE...ASBURY...MORTON HILL...
MEUX CORNER...SHEPP...CANAAN GROVE...TABERNACLE...
HICKORY POINT AND TURNPIKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3566 8929 3540 8926 3540 8963 3553 8962
TIME...MOT...LOC 1411Z 242DEG 21KT 3548 8944 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

964 
WWUS54 KMEG 141422
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
922 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

TNC075-167-141431-
/O.EXP.KMEG.SV.W.0140.000000T0000Z-160714T1430Z/
TIPTON TN-HAYWOOD TN-
922 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON AND
SOUTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 930 AM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE...THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3566 8929 3540 8926 3540 8963 3553 8962
TIME...MOT...LOC 1419Z 242DEG 21KT 3548 8944 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
704 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016/

.Short term...

Better storm chances will exist throughout the day
and night on Thursday as a series of shortwave disturbances make
their way through the Mid- South. Strong storms will be possible
this afternoon and evening as the first of the series of
shortwaves impacts the region. Model soundings depict a very
unstable atmosphere throughout the Mid-South this evening with
MUCAPE values ranging from 2500-4000 j/kg, 0-3km lapse rates
between 6-7 C/km, and dewpoints in the low to mid 70's. Model
soundings also depict an inverted-V lower sounding profile
suggesting an increased wind threat. However, weak shear values
don't support long tracked well organized storms. The main threat
with any storms today will be strong winds and hail. PWAT values
over 2 inches also indicates flash flooding will be a threat. High
temperatures today will be in the low to mid-90's, these highs
coupled with dewpoints in the mid 70's could lead to heat index
values near 105 degrees in some locations not impacted by
convective thunderstorms. Coverage and timing of thunderstorms
today is still uncertain, however there is enough confidence in
storm coverage during peak heating hours to support not issuing a
heat advisory today. The Storm Prediction Center has placed
Northeastern Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel in a slight risk
zone in their Day 1 Outlook Product. The rest of the Mid- South
was placed in a moderate risk.

The best chances of storms during this active period remains on
Friday as a deeper upper shortwave swings through the Mid
Mississippi Valley. All indications so far suggest better
thunderstorm coverage and intensity on Friday.

.Long term...
Models are trending drier on Saturday and Sunday as drier air
associated with a building upper ridge over the Plains begins to
filter into the region. The best chances of storms on Saturday
will exist in the southern portions of the Mid-South. Warmer,
drier weather is expected on Sunday and Monday as the steep upper
ridge moves slowly eastward towards the Mid-South. Hot and humid
weather will continue throughout the upcoming week, with daily
highs in the mid to upper 90's. However, storm chances will
increase slightly during mid-week as the upper ridge retrogrades
slightly west.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...

12z TAF Set

An MCS has held together overnight and is advancing southward
across east Arkansas this morning. This MCS is pushing into a
moderately unstable airmass and it appears that inhabition is
weaker than previously thought. Therefore storms should continue
to progress south and impact KJBR and KMEM this morning. Further
east...storms should develop later this afternoon and continue
through the day. Mainly VFR cigs are anticipated...but there could
be brief periods of MVFR conditions in stronger storms. Winds will
remain out of the southwest through the day.

There will likely be a break late this afternoon before another
MCS forms to our west and impacts all of the terminals tonight.
Provided best initial timing but this may be difficult to
determine further than a few hours out. Winds will remain light
southerly outside of convection.

JLH

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
445 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-151145-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
445 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MID-SOUTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE
STRAIGHT- LINE WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS A
DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN...
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90'S COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70'S WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS HEAT
INDICES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TOMORROW.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
807 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

ARZ026>028-141400-
CRAIGHEAD AR-MISSISSIPPI AR-POINSETT AR-
807 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR...

EASTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
EASTERN POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

AT 807 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH
WAS LOCATED NEAR MANILA

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN CRAIGHEAD...MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN POINSETT
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3599 9037 3600 8978 3576 8990 3573 8996
      3567 8994 3556 9000 3555 9004 3545 9005
      3545 9007 3548 9008 3548 9011 3545 9013
      3545 9069
TIME...MOT...LOC 1307Z 266DEG 23KT 3586 9022

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
808 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

ARZ035-036-048-141400-
ST. FRANCIS AR-CRITTENDEN AR-CROSS AR-
808 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR...

ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

AT 808 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH
WAS LOCATED NEAR WYNNE

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN ST. FRANCIS...NORTHWESTERN CRITTENDEN AND CROSS COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3500 9115 3500 9105 3517 9104 3545 9082
      3544 9026 3490 9051 3491 9115
TIME...MOT...LOC 1308Z 258DEG 31KT 3521 9085

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
834 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

TNZ001-002-019-141415-
LAKE TN-DYER TN-OBION TN-
834 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 915 AM CDT FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
DYER COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN OBION COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...

AT 834 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH
WAS LOCATED NEAR HELOISE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CARUTHERSVILLE

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN LAKE...DYER AND SOUTHWESTERN OBION COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3603 8916 3600 8971 3610 8965 3613 8959
      3617 8960 3630 8951 3631 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 1334Z 253DEG 17KT 3606 8960

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
844 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

TNZ049-050-088-089-141430-
FAYETTE TN-TIPTON TN-HAYWOOD TN-SHELBY TN-
844 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 930 AM CDT FOR...

NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...

AT 844 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING ${ALLTHREAT}NEAR
DIXONVILLE...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF COVINGTON

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON...SOUTHWESTERN
HAYWOOD AND NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3533 8927 3522 8975 3547 8976 3559 8951
      3558 8951 3558 8949 3561 8946 3566 8935
TIME...MOT...LOC 1344Z 277DEG 15KT 3538 8965

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
847 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

ARZ028-036-048-TNZ048-049-088-141430-
MISSISSIPPI AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-CRITTENDEN AR-TIPTON TN-LAUDERDALE TN-
SHELBY TN-
847 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 930 AM CDT FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
EASTERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
WESTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
WESTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...

AT 847 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH
WAS LOCATED OVER MARIE...OR NEAR KEISER

${REPORT2}

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...EASTERN ST. FRANCIS...
CRITTENDEN...WESTERN TIPTON...SOUTHWESTERN LAUDERDALE AND WESTERN
SHELBY COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3491 9078 3515 9057 3514 9050 3522 9051
      3544 9031 3544 9029 3547 9029 3575 9003
      3576 8957 3499 9023 3499 9031 3496 9026
      3491 9030
TIME...MOT...LOC 1347Z 242DEG 21KT 3563 9005