Flash Flood Warning 114, NWS Memphis, TN

272 
WGUS74 KMEG 141630
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1130 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

TNC047-075-097-157-167-141640-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0114.000000T0000Z-160714T1645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TIPTON TN-HAYWOOD TN-FAYETTE TN-LAUDERDALE TN-SHELBY TN-
1130 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN TIPTON...HAYWOOD...
NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...SOUTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE AND NORTHEASTERN
SHELBY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. FLOOD WATERS HAVE RECEDED. FLOODING IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY
REMAINING ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3577 8931 3577 8929 3575 8927 3575 8922
      3573 8916 3570 8912 3570 8910 3510 8944
      3510 8988 3579 8947 3579 8933

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
704 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016/

.Short term...

Better storm chances will exist throughout the day
and night on Thursday as a series of shortwave disturbances make
their way through the Mid- South. Strong storms will be possible
this afternoon and evening as the first of the series of
shortwaves impacts the region. Model soundings depict a very
unstable atmosphere throughout the Mid-South this evening with
MUCAPE values ranging from 2500-4000 j/kg, 0-3km lapse rates
between 6-7 C/km, and dewpoints in the low to mid 70's. Model
soundings also depict an inverted-V lower sounding profile
suggesting an increased wind threat. However, weak shear values
don't support long tracked well organized storms. The main threat
with any storms today will be strong winds and hail. PWAT values
over 2 inches also indicates flash flooding will be a threat. High
temperatures today will be in the low to mid-90's, these highs
coupled with dewpoints in the mid 70's could lead to heat index
values near 105 degrees in some locations not impacted by
convective thunderstorms. Coverage and timing of thunderstorms
today is still uncertain, however there is enough confidence in
storm coverage during peak heating hours to support not issuing a
heat advisory today. The Storm Prediction Center has placed
Northeastern Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel in a slight risk
zone in their Day 1 Outlook Product. The rest of the Mid- South
was placed in a moderate risk.

The best chances of storms during this active period remains on
Friday as a deeper upper shortwave swings through the Mid
Mississippi Valley. All indications so far suggest better
thunderstorm coverage and intensity on Friday.

.Long term...
Models are trending drier on Saturday and Sunday as drier air
associated with a building upper ridge over the Plains begins to
filter into the region. The best chances of storms on Saturday
will exist in the southern portions of the Mid-South. Warmer,
drier weather is expected on Sunday and Monday as the steep upper
ridge moves slowly eastward towards the Mid-South. Hot and humid
weather will continue throughout the upcoming week, with daily
highs in the mid to upper 90's. However, storm chances will
increase slightly during mid-week as the upper ridge retrogrades
slightly west.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...

12z TAF Set

An MCS has held together overnight and is advancing southward
across east Arkansas this morning. This MCS is pushing into a
moderately unstable airmass and it appears that inhabition is
weaker than previously thought. Therefore storms should continue
to progress south and impact KJBR and KMEM this morning. Further
east...storms should develop later this afternoon and continue
through the day. Mainly VFR cigs are anticipated...but there could
be brief periods of MVFR conditions in stronger storms. Winds will
remain out of the southwest through the day.

There will likely be a break late this afternoon before another
MCS forms to our west and impacts all of the terminals tonight.
Provided best initial timing but this may be difficult to
determine further than a few hours out. Winds will remain light
southerly outside of convection.

JLH

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
445 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-151145-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
445 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MID-SOUTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE
STRAIGHT- LINE WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS A
DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN...
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90'S COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70'S WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS HEAT
INDICES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TOMORROW.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
844 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

TNZ049-050-088-089-141430-
FAYETTE TN-TIPTON TN-HAYWOOD TN-SHELBY TN-
844 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 930 AM CDT FOR...

NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...

AT 844 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING ${ALLTHREAT}NEAR
DIXONVILLE...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF COVINGTON

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON...SOUTHWESTERN
HAYWOOD AND NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3533 8927 3522 8975 3547 8976 3559 8951
      3558 8951 3558 8949 3561 8946 3566 8935
TIME...MOT...LOC 1344Z 277DEG 15KT 3538 8965

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
847 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

ARZ028-036-048-TNZ048-049-088-141430-
MISSISSIPPI AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-CRITTENDEN AR-TIPTON TN-LAUDERDALE TN-
SHELBY TN-
847 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 930 AM CDT FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
EASTERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
WESTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
WESTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...

AT 847 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH
WAS LOCATED OVER MARIE...OR NEAR KEISER

${REPORT2}

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...EASTERN ST. FRANCIS...
CRITTENDEN...WESTERN TIPTON...SOUTHWESTERN LAUDERDALE AND WESTERN
SHELBY COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3491 9078 3515 9057 3514 9050 3522 9051
      3544 9031 3544 9029 3547 9029 3575 9003
      3576 8957 3499 9023 3499 9031 3496 9026
      3491 9030
TIME...MOT...LOC 1347Z 242DEG 21KT 3563 9005

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
850 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

ARZ028-TNZ019-048-050-141430-
MISSISSIPPI AR-LAUDERDALE TN-DYER TN-HAYWOOD TN-
850 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 930 AM CDT FOR...

NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
SOUTHERN DYER COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
NORTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...

AT 850 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH
WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF ASHPORT...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BLYTHEVILLE

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN LAUDERDALE...SOUTHERN
DYER AND NORTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3588 8932 3588 8934 3583 8936 3579 8934
      3576 8935 3575 9003 3600 8996 3602 8928
TIME...MOT...LOC 1350Z 242DEG 21KT 3588 8980

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
921 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

TNZ019-048>051-088-089-141500-
FAYETTE TN-TIPTON TN-LAUDERDALE TN-DYER TN-HAYWOOD TN-CROCKETT TN-
SHELBY TN-
921 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR...

NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
TIPTON COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN DYER COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
WESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
WESTERN CROCKETT COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...

AT 921 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR COVINGTON

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...TIPTON...LAUDERDALE...SOUTHEASTERN
DYER...WESTERN HAYWOOD...WESTERN CROCKETT AND NORTHEASTERN SHELBY
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3598 8917 3597 8914 3590 8913 3587 8911
      3528 8949 3528 9007 3601 8955 3601 8920
TIME...MOT...LOC 1421Z 249DEG 33KT 3552 8962

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
923 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

ARZ036-048-049-MSZ001-007-TNZ088-141515-
ST. FRANCIS AR-CRITTENDEN AR-LEE AR-TUNICA MS-DESOTO MS-SHELBY TN-
923 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1015 AM CDT FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
CENTRAL CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
EASTERN LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHERN TUNICA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
WESTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN SHELBY COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...

AT 923 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER WEST MEMPHIS

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN ST. FRANCIS...CENTRAL CRITTENDEN...EASTERN
LEE...NORTHERN TUNICA...WESTERN DESOTO AND SOUTHERN SHELBY COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3528 9019 3528 8965 3464 9029 3464 9087
TIME...MOT...LOC 1423Z 249DEG 21KT 3513 9020

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
942 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

TNZ049>052-088>090-141530-
FAYETTE TN-TIPTON TN-HARDEMAN TN-MADISON TN-HAYWOOD TN-CROCKETT TN-
SHELBY TN-
942 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1030 AM CDT FOR...

FAYETTE COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
WESTERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
MADISON COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
HAYWOOD COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
SOUTHERN CROCKETT COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...

AT 942 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR ARLINGTON...OR 14
MILES SOUTH OF COVINGTON

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN FAYETTE...SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON...WESTERN HARDEMAN...
MADISON...HAYWOOD...SOUTHERN CROCKETT AND SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3499 8919 3500 9008 3580 8922 3579 8861
      3578 8861
TIME...MOT...LOC 1442Z 248DEG 53KT 3536 8959