Flash Flood Warning 128, NWS Memphis, TN

610 
WGUS74 KMEG 170107
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
807 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

MSC095-170117-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0128.000000T0000Z-160717T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE MS-
807 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL MONROE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A
THREAT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY REMAINING ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3367 8850 3367 8849 3368 8853 3394 8872
      3399 8840 3383 8824 3375 8825 3375 8832
      3372 8833 3369 8837 3369 8839 3367 8842
      3368 8843 3366 8846 3367 8848 3365 8851

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
257 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Skies are partly cloudy across most of the forecast area this
afternoon with temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to lower90s.
Some thunderstorms have developed with most of the activity over
portions of north Mississippi. These thunderstorms should start to
die out later this afternoon.

An upper level ridge is taking control of much of the southern
U.S. for the next couple of days. This will mean mainly dry
weather for tonight through Monday night. Temperatures will be
quite warm during the period with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Heat index values will climb to at or slightly above 100 degrees
for both Sunday and Monday but should remain below 105 so no Heat
Advisory is needed at this time.

A couple of upper level disturbances will drop into the forecast
area from the north. One will move through the region on Tuesday
and the second one will move through on Wednesday. As a result,
there will be a chance of thunderstorms both days. The upper
level disturbance on Tuesday appears to be a little stronger so
there will be a little better chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Outside of thunderstorms, temperatures will remain quite warm with
highs both days in the low to mid 90s.

A return to dry weather is expected for Thursday and Friday as
temperatures remain in the low to mid 90s. Another upper level
disturbance may move through the region next Saturday so there may
be a few thunderstorms then.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions and light winds expected to prevail for much of
the period. Winds mostly from the east to northeast
today...shifting more southerly tomorrow. Thunderstorms are
developing near TUP...will carry vcts for much of the afternoon
and amend if radar indicates storms look to be on station.

30

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
315 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-171015-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
315 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING...SMALL
HAIL...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED
105 DEGREES AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY
BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE OR
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS TENNESSEE.

JLH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
507 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

MSZ016-024-162245-
LEE MS-MONROE MS-
507 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...

AT 506 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW WREN...OR NEAR
AMORY

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN LEE AND MONROE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3403 8872 3407 8872 3418 8858 3416 8854
      3409 8854 3409 8843 3395 8822 3378 8824
      3370 8848
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 318DEG 27KT 3402 8859