Flash Flood Warning 127, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
257 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Skies are partly cloudy across most of the forecast area this
afternoon with temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to lower90s.
Some thunderstorms have developed with most of the activity over
portions of north Mississippi. These thunderstorms should start to
die out later this afternoon.

An upper level ridge is taking control of much of the southern
U.S. for the next couple of days. This will mean mainly dry
weather for tonight through Monday night. Temperatures will be
quite warm during the period with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Heat index values will climb to at or slightly above 100 degrees
for both Sunday and Monday but should remain below 105 so no Heat
Advisory is needed at this time.

A couple of upper level disturbances will drop into the forecast
area from the north. One will move through the region on Tuesday
and the second one will move through on Wednesday. As a result,
there will be a chance of thunderstorms both days. The upper
level disturbance on Tuesday appears to be a little stronger so
there will be a little better chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Outside of thunderstorms, temperatures will remain quite warm with
highs both days in the low to mid 90s.

A return to dry weather is expected for Thursday and Friday as
temperatures remain in the low to mid 90s. Another upper level
disturbance may move through the region next Saturday so there may
be a few thunderstorms then.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions and light winds expected to prevail for much of
the period. Winds mostly from the east to northeast
today...shifting more southerly tomorrow. Thunderstorms are
developing near TUP...will carry vcts for much of the afternoon
and amend if radar indicates storms look to be on station.

30

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
315 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-171015-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
315 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING...SMALL
HAIL...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED
105 DEGREES AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY
BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE OR
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS TENNESSEE.

JLH