Alert archive / Texas / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

May 21, 2016Andrews County, Texas

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued this special weather statement at May 21, 2016, 9:01 PM CDT for Andrews County, Texas. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 21, 2016, 9:01 PM CDT (02:01 UTC)
Expired: May 21, 2016, 9:45 PM CDT
In force: 44 min
Issued by: NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

County Andrews County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 2.0 hours before the alert went out and 63 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1218 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -50 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2185 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 19 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 103 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 2.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 21, 6:26 PM CDT, 2 hours 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 21, 6:26 PM CDT, 2 hours 35 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
626 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions continue across the terminals with a thunderstorm
currently affecting KINK. Storms will continue in this area for
the next hour or so. These storms may head toward KHOB so will
amend if needed. Expect MVFR cigs to develop overnight at KMAF,
KHOB and possibly further west. Low clouds will begin to break by
late morning with VFR conditions returning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico sitting under
an upper-lvl ridge between two systems, one over the Great lakes
region, and the other over eastern OR.  Sfc observations show
return flow has backed a weak dryline up against the mountains,
w/dewpoints in the 50s as far west as KROW-KCNM-KMRF-KPRS.  East of
the dryline, sfc analysis shows a ridge of cape in excess of
3000J/kg extending from LBBB-K6R6, w/radar showing convection
developing over the Davis Mtns.  Coupled w/a shortwave in WV imagery
approaching thru Chihuahua, things could get somewhat busy shortly.
W/mid-lvl LR's in excess of 7C/km over the northern half of the CWA,
dcapes in excess of 1000J/kg throughout, and deep lyr shear of 35-
45kts, large hail/damaging winds will be possible w/the stronger
storms.  However, forecast soundings develop impressive helicities
after 00Z, w/LCLs 1500-2500' AGL, so an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out.  We'd insert a svr mention into the grids, but would
rather reserve that for Sunday, in which the dryline will be a
little sharper/further east, and parameters mentioned above a bit
more favorable for severe wx than today's.  W/the dryline further
east on Sunday, this will result in critical fire wx conditions in
some areas west of the dryline, and we've put the Guadalupes into a
Fire Wx Watch as a result.  Monday, continued leeside troughing/sw
flow will push the dryline even further east, where it will remain
on the eastern fringes of the CWA thru the rest of the week,
favoring slight chances of convection each day there.  Longer range
models hint at more widespread convection possibly Thursday or so,
when a trough is forecast to pass north of the region.

Otherwise, temps should remain above normal for the most of the week,
coming back to near-normal in the extended as the aforementioned
trough approaches and thicknesses fall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  87  71  94 /  30  40  30  20
Carlsbad                       62  94  61  95 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         72  86  73  92 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  69  91  70  93 /  20  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 62  85  60  87 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          68  90  60  90 /  30  10  10  10
Marfa                          54  85  50  86 /  20  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           70  88  71  95 /  30  30  20  20
Odessa                         71  89  71  94 /  30  20  20  10
Wink                           71  95  66  96 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

99/99/29

Hazardous weather outlook, May 21, 12:51 PM CDT, 8 hours 10 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1251 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-221800-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
1251 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 /1151 AM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE PERMIAN
BASIN, THE TRANS PECOS REGION, AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE TO PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LIGHTNING. A TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LIGHTNING EACH DAY. A
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN LATER THIS EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 21, 8:12 PM CDT, 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
812 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 W SEMINOLE            32.72N 102.81W
05/21/2016                   GAINES             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER POLES DOWN ON US 180

&&

CMR

Local storm report, May 21, 8:13 PM CDT, 48 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
813 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     HAIL             SEMINOLE                32.72N 102.65W
05/21/2016  E1.75 INCH       GAINES             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS HOUSE AND AUTO WINDOWS BROKEN DUE TO HAIL.

&&

CMR

Local storm report, May 21, 8:19 PM CDT, 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
819 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SW SEAGRAVES          32.93N 102.58W
05/21/2016  M65 MPH          GAINES             TX   MESONET

&&

CMR

Local storm report, May 21, 8:23 PM CDT, 38 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
823 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     HAIL             7 S SEAGRAVES           32.84N 102.57W
05/21/2016  E2.00 INCH       GAINES             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

CMR

Local storm report, May 21, 8:25 PM CDT, 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
825 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 S SEAGRAVES           32.84N 102.57W
05/21/2016  M61 MPH          GAINES             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

CMR

Special weather statement, May 21, 9:01 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
901 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

TXZ050-060-061-220245-
WINKLER TX-ANDREWS TX-ECTOR TX-
901 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LEA...NORTHEASTERN
WINKLER...SOUTHERN ANDREWS AND NORTHWESTERN ECTOR COUNTIES UNTIL 945
PM CDT...

AT 901 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16
MILES EAST OF JAL...OR 23 MILES NORTHEAST OF KERMIT...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANDREWS...GOLDSMITH...ANDREWS COUNTY AIRPORT AND NORTH COWDEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3235 10239 3192 10251 3194 10310 3200 10309
      3200 10306 3215 10307 3238 10303
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 274DEG 16KT 3215 10291

29

The office that day

Everything else NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 21, 7:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Andrews, Gaines	46 min
May 21, 8:03 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Andrews	42 min
May 21, 8:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Andrews	46 min
May 21, 8:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Gaines	30 min
May 21, 9:52 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Gaines	38 min
May 22, 12:17 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Gaines	28 min
May 22, 3:30 AM CDT	Fire Weather Watch	MAF		25 hr
May 22, 3:30 AM CDT	Red Flag Warning	MAF		19 hr
May 22, 4:05 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Martin	40 min
May 22, 4:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Borden, Dawson	46 min
May 22, 4:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Borden, Dawson, Howard, Martin	41 min
May 22, 5:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Borden	36 min
May 22, 5:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Borden, Dawson, Howard, Martin	48 min
May 22, 5:51 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Borden, Dawson, Howard, Martin	3 hr
May 22, 6:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Howard, Martin	38 min
May 22, 6:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Terrell	44 min
May 22, 6:22 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	MAF	Howard	23 min
May 22, 6:25 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF		50 min
May 22, 6:35 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MAF	Howard, Martin	4 hr
May 22, 6:44 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threat	MAF	Glasscock, Howard	31 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Texas, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.