Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
632 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Will continue with TSRA in the forecast for FST for the next
several hours. Otherwise expect MVFR/IFR cigs to develop at
eastern TAF sites as stratus develops overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 235 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The large upper low that has been affecting weather across the
nation's midsection since the early part of the weekend has
finally started to progress northeastward, and will reach the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by Thursday. Prior to that, this
afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated
across the area, with some strong (possibly severe) thunderstorms
possible, particularly across the Lower Trans Pecos and Permian
Basin along a diffuse dryline. Clearing across the western half of
the forecast area has allowed temperatures to warm into the 70s,
and a cumulus field has developed with an isolated thunderstorm in
central Pecos county. The extent of coverage of convection this
afternoon and evening hinges on the amount of further
destabilization that can occur, given clearing has been slow
across the eastern half of the forecast area. While low level
shear is fairly weak, deep layer shear is around 40-50kts, and
given lapse rates of around 7C/km, stronger storms will be capable
of producing hail and gusty wind. Storms that develop this
afternoon will move east tonight, with another cloudy night
expected with lows a bit above normal in the mid 40s to mid 60s.

As the trough axis finally begins to move east of the region on
Wednesday, temperatures will warm up to near and slightly above
normal, with a few showers and thunderstorms possible across the
far eastern CWA where moisture will be greater. Wednesday night,
a shortwave rounding the back side of the departing low is progged
to generate showers and thunderstorms across the Texas
Panhandle, with the trough and associated convective outflow
resulting in precipitation chances late Wednesday night/early
Thursday morning across the central and eastern Permian Basin.
Focus for convection Thursday afternoon then looks to shift to the
Stockton Plateau/Lower Trans Pecos along and ahead of a front,
which will also serve to keep temperatures a bit below normal
across the northern half of the forecast area.

Temperatures will slowly rebound back to normal on Friday as
ridging develops over the region. Friday night into Saturday, a
shortwave embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft will yield a
return of precipitation chances, mainly along and south of the
Pecos River. Sunday onward, the forecast looks to be warm and
dry, as above normal temperatures return and the dryline shifts
east, confining precipitation chances to Central Texas and points
east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  80  59  73 /  40  10  20  30
Carlsbad                       51  85  52  79 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                         63  87  65  86 /  40  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  57  86  58  80 /  30  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 51  80  51  74 /  10   0   0  10
Hobbs                          49  80  50  75 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                          41  81  42  78 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           57  83  59  77 /  40  10  10  20
Odessa                         57  83  59  77 /  40  10  10  20
Wink                           56  88  57  81 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
217 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-201930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
217 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016 /117 PM MDT TUE APR 19 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A TATUM...TO PECOS...TO LAJITAS LINE.  SOME
STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
904 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

TXZ082-200300-
TERRELL TX-
904 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TERRELL COUNTY
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 903 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTH OF DRYDEN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TERRELL COUNTY.

LAT...LON 2980 10180 2981 10182 2979 10182 2981 10185
      2978 10193 2982 10198 2980 10199 2980 10204
      2979 10204 2979 10207 2980 10214 2985 10219
      2984 10220 2985 10224 2987 10227 3002 10216
      2985 10176 2979 10177 2978 10181
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 302DEG 20KT 2991 10215

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
929 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 PM     HAIL             E DERMOTT               32.86N 101.02W
04/19/2016  E1.00 INCH       SCURRY             TX   PUBLIC

            WAGON WHEEL DUDE RANCH EAST OF DERMOTT. VERY STRONG
            WINDS.

&&

CMR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
929 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

TXZ047-200300-
BORDEN TX-
929 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BORDEN COUNTY UNTIL
1000 PM CDT...

AT 929 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MESQUITE...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF GAIL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GAIL AND MESQUITE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3283 10169 3296 10159 3291 10138 3274 10147
TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 301DEG 22KT 3288 10157

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
951 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 PM     HAIL             10 NE SNYDER            32.82N 100.79W
04/19/2016  E0.88 INCH       SCURRY             TX   PUBLIC

            KOONSMAN RANCH REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

&&

CMR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
955 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

TXZ047-200345-
BORDEN TX-
955 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BORDEN COUNTY UNTIL
1045 PM CDT...

AT 954 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHEAST OF GAIL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GAIL.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3270 10148 3291 10151 3291 10122 3267 10121
TIME...MOT...LOC 0254Z 240DEG 49KT 3287 10138

12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1023 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

TXZ050-200400-
ANDREWS TX-
1023 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN ANDREWS COUNTY UNTIL 1100
PM CDT...

AT 1022 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES WEST OF FRANKEL CITY...OR 21 MILES WEST OF ANDREWS ALONG STATE
HIGHWAY 176...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FRANKEL CITY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3216 10295 3245 10303 3247 10262 3217 10254
TIME...MOT...LOC 0322Z 240DEG 49KT 3237 10290

12