Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
150 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SW flow aloft has been convectively active with a 70kt 3h jet
stretching across the wrn CWFA again today. Meanwhile there is
a surface boundary nearing the nrn CWFA with mostly 60-65 dwpnts
in place. Pre-convective lapse rates are steeper today than
yesterday and along with said moisture this will yield SB CAPES
of 2000-3000 J/KG across much of the area. This with 0-6km bulk
shear of 40kts does support more severe wx today. Our favored
scenario is that the boundary to the n is enhanced/pushed farther
south by convective outflow and will move into the nrn CWFA in
phase with daytime heating and in proximity to the upper jet.
Convergence could increase along the boundary late this
afternoon/early evening when 85h winds increase resulting in the
proliferation of storms INVOF I-20 from Monahans to C. City and
northward. Large hail and strong winds are the main concerns, but
with the boundary a brief spin-up cannot be ruled out (NAM12 0-3km
SRH 276 m2/s2). More of the same is possible Saturday as the main
3h jet kicks out with much of the PB within the left rear quadrant
of said jet. Locally heavy rain will be possible today and
Saturday. Parts of SE NM and the northern tier of the CWFA will be
most susceptible to flooding or flash flooding with precipitable
water from 1-1.5 standard deviations above normal and recent
rainfall. A few -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible across the Trans
Pecos Mtns Sunday, but the main theme will be the resurgence of
the mid level ridge Sunday/Monday and the return of above normal
temps and dry conditions. Mid level flow will be favored to be
from the SE Tue/Wed so temps will cool a few degrees at least
across the PB, not so much farther w.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  89  70  93 /  60  30  30  10
Carlsbad                       64  88  65  92 /  20  30  30  10
Dryden                         72  94  72  94 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Stockton                  69  92  70  94 /  30  30  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 63  82  64  85 /  20  20  30  10
Hobbs                          63  83  64  88 /  40  40  40  10
Marfa                          61  85  62  85 /  30  30  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           68  90  69  93 /  40  30  30  10
Odessa                         68  89  70  92 /  40  40  30  10
Wink                           68  92  69  94 /  30  40  30  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
138 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-171845-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
138 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 /1238 PM MDT FRI SEP 16 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS...PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE...AS WELL AS ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RECENT RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
THE PERMIAN BASIN SATURDAY. STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1059 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             18 E VAN HORN           31.04N 104.53W
09/15/2016  E1.00 INCH       CULBERSON          TX   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY EXXON GAS STATION ON I-10
            AT EXIT 159. HAIL FELL FOR APPROXIMATELY 30 MINUTES FROM
            7-730 PM CDT.

&&

ANDREW.ARNOLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
242 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             2 S ARTESIA             32.82N 104.43W
09/15/2016  E2.75 INCH       EDDY               NM   PUBLIC

            BASEBALL SIZED HAIL CAUSED HOLES IN WALLS OF HOME ON
            KINCAID RANCH ROAD

&&

JULIE.PHILLIPSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
316 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

TXZ075-162100-
PECOS TX-
316 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM CDT...

AT 315 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES NORTH OF HOVEY...OR 26 MILES WEST OF FORT STOCKTON...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELDING AND FIRESTONE TEST TRACK.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 238 AND 254.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3063 10337 3077 10356 3102 10307 3076 10285
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 260DEG 14KT 3076 10331

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