Alert archive / New Mexico / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

September 15, 2016Eddy County, New Mexico

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 15, 2016, 6:00 PM MDT for Eddy County, New Mexico. It was in force for 60 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 15, 2016, 6:00 PM MDT (00:00 UTC)
Expired: Sep 15, 2016, 7:00 PM MDT
In force: 60 min
Issued by: NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Possible
Hail: 1.75 in
Wind: 70.0 mph

County Eddy County, NM

The radar

The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 183 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Sep 15, 12:42 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 0.0 hours before the alert went out and 206 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1190 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -26 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1881 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 22 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 57 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

717 
WUUS54 KMAF 160000
SVRMAF
NMC015-160100-
/O.NEW.KMAF.SV.W.0209.160916T0000Z-160916T0100Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...

* UNTIL 700 PM MDT

* AT 558 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  LAKEWOOD...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ARTESIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
  20 MPH.

  HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
           CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO 
           MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SEVEN RIVERS AIRPORT...AVALON...LIVING DESERT STATE PARK...
  SEVEN RIVERS...LAKEWOOD...BRANTLEY LAKE STATE PARK...
  CARLSBAD NORTH...LAKE AVALON AND OTIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO SHELTER INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING. STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3259 10447 3283 10430 3264 10383 3225 10421
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 298DEG 18KT 3268 10430 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

49

1 follow-up statement

366 
WWUS54 KMAF 160027
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

NMC015-160100-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0209.000000T0000Z-160916T0100Z/
EDDY NM-
627 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY...

AT 625 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHEAST
OF AVALON...OR 17 MILES NORTH OF CARLSBAD...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO 
         MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AVALON...LIVING DESERT STATE PARK...CARLSBAD NORTH...AND LAKE AVALON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3263 10436 3281 10428 3264 10383 3225 10421
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 280DEG 18KT 3264 10414 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

49

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 15, 5:18 PM MDT, 42 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 15, 5:18 PM MDT, 42 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
618 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms are possible throughout the period with the best
chances being for CNM and HOB. Did not add TEMPO groups in for the
other terminals for now but will amend as necessary. Outside of
thunderstorms, winds will remain fairly light out of the south.
There is a slight chance of low ceilings and visibilities around
12z for all terminals but the best chances will be for CNM and
HOB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 210 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An upper trough located over the Northern Rockies this morning
extends south to Mexico while the ridge over the east extends from
the Gulf to the Great Lakes.  The trough will tear in two with a
portion of it digging back to the SW and forming a cut off low by
Saturday.  Models eventually weaken this feature before sweeping it
east next week.

Models have been advertising fropas but these fronts have tended not
to end up making it here.  Now it appears do not have a significant
front arriving till the end of next week. As a result temps warm
above normal next week into the 90s.

Had morning storms over SE NM that have lingered into this afternoon
and drifted into Southern Lea and Western Permian Basin.  High pops
Friday and Friday night north as models develop good qpf along an E-
W trough/boundary.  Latest SWODY1 has SE NM in a slight risk severe
due to a lingering boundary... surface heating... good shear... and
nose of upper jet... now A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect
until 02z.  Also SE NM... Upper Trans Pecos... and much of the
Permian Basin are in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall tonight.
Have increased pops tonight NW and will mention severe/flooding
potential in the HWO.  Rain chances will continue through the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  90  69  88 /  40  30  50  30
Carlsbad                       66  89  65  86 /  50  30  20  30
Dryden                         71  94  72  92 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Stockton                  69  92  69  91 /  30  20  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 62  86  63  80 /  50  30  20  30
Hobbs                          64  84  63  84 /  50  50  40  40
Marfa                          58  85  58  83 /  30  40  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           68  91  69  88 /  40  30  30  20
Odessa                         68  90  68  87 /  40  30  30  20
Wink                           69  92  68  90 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

99/99/

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 15, 1:01 PM MDT, 4 hours 59 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
201 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-161915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
201 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 /101 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR EDDY AND LEA COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING. SEE THE
WATCH PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS...PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE...AS WELL AS ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RECENT RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WINDS TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 15, 4:02 PM MDT, 1 hour 58 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
502 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 W HOPE                32.82N 104.75W
09/15/2016                   EDDY               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD NOT REACHING THE GROUND, BUT BECOMING CLOSER
            AS THEY REPORT IT ON THE PHONE.

&&

CMR

Local storm report, Sep 15, 4:23 PM MDT, 1 hour 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
523 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     TORNADO          1 W HOPE                32.82N 104.75W
09/15/2016                   EDDY               NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JD

Local storm report, Sep 15, 4:35 PM MDT, 1 hour 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
535 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             10 W ARTESIA            32.85N 104.60W
09/15/2016  E0.75 INCH       EDDY               NM   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

MSCHULDT

Local storm report, Sep 15, 5:51 PM MDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
651 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0649 PM     HAIL             5 S ARTESIA             32.78N 104.43W
09/15/2016  E1.00 INCH       EDDY               NM   PUBLIC

            549 PM MDT.

&&

CMR

Local storm report, Sep 15, 5:56 PM MDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
656 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             4 S ARTESIA             32.79N 104.43W
09/15/2016  E1.75 INCH       EDDY               NM   PUBLIC

            REPORTED 550 PM MDT.

&&

CMR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 15, 6:53 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Eddy	54 min
Sep 15, 8:45 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Eddy	60 min
Sep 15, 8:54 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Eddy	66 min
Sep 15, 9:45 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Eddy	60 min
Sep 15, 10:06 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Eddy	54 min
Sep 16, 2:47 AM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Lea	43 min
Sep 16, 3:46 AM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Lea	44 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in New Mexico, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.