Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

631 
WWUS54 KMAF 170224
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
924 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

TXC335-415-170233-
/O.CAN.KMAF.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-160417T0245Z/
SCURRY TX-MITCHELL TX-
924 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN SCURRY AND
NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR WESTERN
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3250 10113 3289 10088 3291 10070 3286 10066
      3241 10066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 247DEG 39KT 3268 10034 

$$

12

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
624 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
TS is developing this afternoon but is expected to remain east of
the TAF sites. TS may briefly appear at FST or MAF but will put it
into the TAFs with an AMD if needed. Winds will generally be light
to moderate from a southeasterly to westerly direction.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 231 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A large cutoff low over New Mexico and Colorado today will provide
the opportunity for some rain over the forecast area.  Unfortunately
some of the resulting storms which develop could be severe.  A
dryline over west Texas has been driven eastward into the Permian
Basin this afternoon, and could make it to the eastern fringe of the
forecast area before retreating westward tonight due to strong
height falls with the upper low.  There will be plenty of
instability along and east of the dryline, around 1500 to 2500 J/Kg,
with the atmosphere mainly uncapped during max heating, so a few
storms could develop along the dryline this afternoon.  0 to 6 km
bulk shear will be 50 to 60kt so organized thunderstorms are
expected, some of which could produce hail, due in part to steep mid
level lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/Km.  The nose of a 100kt h25 jet will
begin to nose into the region also, but it appears mid level support
from a well defined shortwave trough will be missing, at least
through 17/00Z.

A strong shortwave trough will wheel around the base of the upper
low tonight, and along with most of the same parameters above,
likely result in widespread thunderstorms developing along the
dryline tonight over the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos, if not perhaps a little further west over the central Permian
Basin.  Think a linear Mesoscale Convective System will evolve, but
a tornado or two is not outside the realm of possibility as there is
good turning of winds from the surface to h5.  Large hail and
damaging winds will be the main threat, but also heavy rainfall.
Pwats will rise to around 1 inch, and with thunderstorms possibly
training over the Lower Trans Pecos/eastern Permian Basin, rainfall
amounts could total 1 to 3 inches in a short amount of time and
result in flash flooding.  There are some differences on how far
west thunderstorms will develop on the dryline in the model data
tonight, most likely due to how quickly a Pacific cold front
collides with the retreating dryline.  Will favor a slower Pac front
since the cutoff low is still northwest of the forecast area, which
will allow the dryline to move further west before colliding with
the front, which could result in convection developing further west.
But due to these uncertainties, have added the next tier of counties
to the west of the current Flash Flood Watch, which will include
Martin, Midland, Ector and Crane counties.  The threat of severe
storms will diminish late tonight, but the potential for heavy
rainfall/flash flooding could continue through Sunday morning,
especially over the eastern most Permian Basin.

Strong winds are still expected to occur in the Guadalupe Mountains
through this afternoon, and the High Wind Warning will remain
intact.  Also, fire weather concerns are enumerated in the Fire
Weather Discussion below.  The upper low will gradually lift
northward through Tuesday, and could impart slight chances of rain
to the area Sunday night through Monday night.  Fortunately, any
thunderstorms that develop look to stay below severe levels during
this time.  Temperatures will mainly be above normal through next
week, but below normal Monday behind a cold front.  We could see
more rain chances mid next week, but there is not a lot of agreement
amongst models at this time.

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather conditions with high fire danger will continue
through this evening across the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast
New Mexico Plains where a Red Flag Warning remains in effect.
Relative humidity values across that area have dropped to the 10 to
15 percent range this afternoon, with west to southwest winds
gusting to over 30 MPH across the plains, and upwards of 60 MPH in
the Guadalupe Mountains. Wind gusts will diminish after sunset this
evening, and as relative humidity values begin to recover, fire
weather conditions will improve.  This afternoon, thunderstorms are
possible across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos,
with a westward expansion of storm coverage expected as the dryline
retreats this evening.  A line of storms is expected to develop from
roughly the central Permian Basin SSW through the Lower Trans Pecos,
with rounds of heavy rain possible as the line moves east through
the early morning.  As much of the west will stay dry, relative
humidity values there could drop to around 10 to 15 percent on
Sunday, though light 20 foot winds will preclude critical fire
weather conditions.  Fire weather conditions look to continue to
improve through the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     54  72  51  71 /  80  40  20  30
Carlsbad                       46  73  47  72 /  10   0  10  20
Dryden                         61  84  60  79 /  70  50  30  30
Fort Stockton                  53  80  54  72 /  70  10  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 44  67  45  65 /  10   0  10  20
Hobbs                          45  72  46  70 /  20  10  20  20
Marfa                          40  72  42  71 /  20  10  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           53  75  53  71 /  70  20  20  20
Odessa                         53  75  53  72 /  60  10  20  20
Wink                           48  80  52  75 /  30  10  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for Borden-Crane-
     Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-
     Scurry-Terrell-Upton.

     High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

99/99/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
455 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-172200-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
455 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016 /355 PM MDT SAT APR 16 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ONE OR TWO TORNADOES
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. TORNADO WATCH NUMBER
094 IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS
PECOS...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MIDLAND AND ODESSA...FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS AND POINTS EAST WITH THE MAIN CONCERN SHIFTING TO
FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THESE AREAS BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO HANG AROUND FOR EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LAMESA TO FORT STOCKTON
LINE.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
731 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             1 W FLUVANNA            32.89N 101.17W
04/16/2016  M1.00 INCH       SCURRY             TX   PUBLIC

&&

ANDREW.ARNOLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
731 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

TXZ062-063-069-070-170115-
REAGAN TX-GLASSCOCK TX-UPTON TX-MIDLAND TX-
731 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN UPTON...WESTERN
REAGAN...SOUTHEASTERN MIDLAND AND GLASSCOCK COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM
CDT...

AT 731 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES SOUTH OF MIDKIFF...OR 19 MILES NORTHEAST OF RANKIN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GARDEN CITY...MIDKIFF...NORTH REAGAN FIRE STATION...BIGBY CORNER...
STILES...SAINT LAWRENCE...TEXON AND LEES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR WESTERN
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3119 10167 3143 10203 3208 10168 3207 10126
      3167 10127
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 210DEG 15KT 3146 10177

29

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
748 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 PM     HAIL             1 S MCCAMEY             31.12N 102.22W
04/16/2016  E1.75 INCH       UPTON              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
752 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             7 N LORAINE             32.51N 100.71W
04/16/2016  E1.00 INCH       MITCHELL           TX   PUBLIC

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
813 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             4 SE DUNN               32.53N 100.84W
04/16/2016  E1.00 INCH       SCURRY             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

0801 PM     HAIL             5 NW COLORADO CITY      32.45N 100.92W
04/16/2016  E1.75 INCH       MITCHELL           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED AT THE COLORADO CITY AIRPORT

0803 PM     HAIL             13 SE SNYDER            32.58N 100.76W
04/16/2016  E1.75 INCH       SCURRY             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROAD 465 AND
            FM1606.

&&

PAT.VESPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
822 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     TORNADO          3 SW HERMLEIGH          32.61N 100.80W
04/16/2016                   SCURRY             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            UNKNOWN INTENSITY

&&

ANDREW.ARNOLD