Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
705 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR AS LOW CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE A LULL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY GOING BACK TO VFR INTO THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE EAST/SOUTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT
WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 14 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS FROM
16 TO 22 MPH. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING THIS MORNING IN SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS WAS NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE ARKANSAS
AND LOUISIANA BORDER. PRECIPITATION WAS FIRING DUE TO A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES BEGINNING TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. GOING INTO
TONIGHT...DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY COME INTO PLAY
IF STORMS CAN BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED.

THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WITH TWO TO THREE INCH AMOUNTS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY MORE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN POSTED IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

ON SATURDAY...THE BIG SOUTHWEST SYSTEM WILL HEAD ACROSS THE
PLAINS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION...WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE STATE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MORE SPOTTY...AND
RAIN WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY.

THE EVENT WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS
TO THE EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER ARKANSAS TO START THE PERIOD AS
A REMNANT CLOSE LOW DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EASTWARD TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH OUT WEST BREAKS DOWN. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THIS PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK...WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NEARLY MERIDIONAL
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THE ONLY PRECIP CHANCES TO
SPEAK OF WILL BE ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BREAKS DOWN
AND TRANSITS ARKANSAS. DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOU BELIEVE...RAIN
ARRIVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE EITHER MIDDAY
MONDAY...OR TUESDAY MORNING. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HAVE RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVING ON MONDAY TO GIVE A NOD TO THE CONSISTENTLY FASTER
EURO...BUT HAVE LOWER OVERALL CHANCES THAN THE EURO TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SLOWER GFS AND INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN AVAILABLE MODELS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SEEN EARLY
ON...BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR PROBABLE BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVELS AMPLIFY GREATLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  64  77  60 /  80  80  60  40
CAMDEN AR         80  67  79  63 /  80  80  60  40
HARRISON AR       69  61  76  54 /  70  70  40  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  66  78  61 /  90  80  60  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  65  79  62 /  80  80  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     81  67  80  65 /  70  70  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      76  65  77  58 /  90  80  50  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  62  77  56 /  70  70  50  30
NEWPORT AR        77  64  77  61 /  80  80  60  50
PINE BLUFF AR     80  66  79  64 /  80  80  70  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   75  65  78  58 /  90  80  50  30
SEARCY AR         77  65  77  61 /  80  80  60  40
STUTTGART AR      79  66  78  64 /  80  80  70  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK-SCOTT.

&&

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
506 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-301015-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-
CALHOUN-BRADLEY-DREW-
506 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
ARKANSAS TODAY. THE FIRST ROUND IN WEST AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING WILL POSE A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL. BUT AS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...DAMAGING
WINDS AND EVEN TORNADOES WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.
STILL...THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY WILL BE HAIL AND
WINDS.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG STORMS...FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A
POSSIBILITY AS HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING TO START THE DAY
SATURDAY...PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE STATE WITH TIME. THE MAIN
AREA TO WATCH FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL BE IN EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AS A RESULT. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LZK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
941 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     HAIL             FORDYCE                 33.81N  92.41W
04/29/2016  E0.88 INCH       DALLAS             AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MARBLE TO NICKLE SIZE HAIL FELL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1600001

224

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