Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Little Rock, AR

162 
WGUS54 KLZK 291640
FFWLZK
ARC119-125-291900-
/O.EXT.KLZK.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-160429T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1140 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
  SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT
    
* AT 1138 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
  HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY TO
  OCCUR.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  LITTLE ROCK...         NORTH LITTLE ROCK...   BENTON...
  SHERWOOD...            JACKSONVILLE...        WEST LITTLE ROCK...
  MAUMELLE...            BRYANT...              DOWNTOWN LITTLE
  ROCK...
  LITTLE ROCK AFB...     SOUTHWEST LITTLE ROC...
  NORTH LITTLE ROCK AI...
  HASKELL...             SHANNON HILLS...       WRIGHTSVILLE...
  ARGENTA...             TRASKWOOD...           SWEET HOME...
  ESTES...               EAST END...            

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW! ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

&&

LAT...LON 3449 9222 3450 9240 3446 9241 3446 9259
      3442 9262 3441 9268 3447 9268 3448 9272
      3482 9286 3489 9246 3485 9245 3489 9244
      3494 9212 3467 9210 3463 9211 3462 9209
      3451 9208

$$

CAVANAUGH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
705 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR AS LOW CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE A LULL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY GOING BACK TO VFR INTO THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE EAST/SOUTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT
WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 14 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS FROM
16 TO 22 MPH. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING THIS MORNING IN SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS WAS NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE ARKANSAS
AND LOUISIANA BORDER. PRECIPITATION WAS FIRING DUE TO A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES BEGINNING TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. GOING INTO
TONIGHT...DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY COME INTO PLAY
IF STORMS CAN BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED.

THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WITH TWO TO THREE INCH AMOUNTS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY MORE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN POSTED IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

ON SATURDAY...THE BIG SOUTHWEST SYSTEM WILL HEAD ACROSS THE
PLAINS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION...WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE STATE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MORE SPOTTY...AND
RAIN WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY.

THE EVENT WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS
TO THE EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER ARKANSAS TO START THE PERIOD AS
A REMNANT CLOSE LOW DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EASTWARD TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH OUT WEST BREAKS DOWN. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THIS PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK...WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NEARLY MERIDIONAL
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THE ONLY PRECIP CHANCES TO
SPEAK OF WILL BE ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BREAKS DOWN
AND TRANSITS ARKANSAS. DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOU BELIEVE...RAIN
ARRIVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE EITHER MIDDAY
MONDAY...OR TUESDAY MORNING. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HAVE RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVING ON MONDAY TO GIVE A NOD TO THE CONSISTENTLY FASTER
EURO...BUT HAVE LOWER OVERALL CHANCES THAN THE EURO TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SLOWER GFS AND INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN AVAILABLE MODELS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SEEN EARLY
ON...BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR PROBABLE BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVELS AMPLIFY GREATLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  64  77  60 /  80  80  60  40
CAMDEN AR         80  67  79  63 /  80  80  60  40
HARRISON AR       69  61  76  54 /  70  70  40  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  66  78  61 /  90  80  60  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  65  79  62 /  80  80  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     81  67  80  65 /  70  70  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      76  65  77  58 /  90  80  50  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  62  77  56 /  70  70  50  30
NEWPORT AR        77  64  77  61 /  80  80  60  50
PINE BLUFF AR     80  66  79  64 /  80  80  70  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   75  65  78  58 /  90  80  50  30
SEARCY AR         77  65  77  61 /  80  80  60  40
STUTTGART AR      79  66  78  64 /  80  80  70  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK-SCOTT.

&&

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
506 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-301015-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-
CALHOUN-BRADLEY-DREW-
506 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
ARKANSAS TODAY. THE FIRST ROUND IN WEST AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING WILL POSE A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL. BUT AS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...DAMAGING
WINDS AND EVEN TORNADOES WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.
STILL...THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY WILL BE HAIL AND
WINDS.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG STORMS...FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A
POSSIBILITY AS HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING TO START THE DAY
SATURDAY...PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE STATE WITH TIME. THE MAIN
AREA TO WATCH FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL BE IN EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AS A RESULT. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LZK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
714 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

ARZ053>055-062-063-066-067-291300-
CALHOUN AR-OUACHITA AR-HOT SPRING AR-DALLAS AR-CLARK AR-CLEVELAND AR-
GRANT AR-
714 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CALHOUN...DALLAS...
SOUTHEASTERN CLARK...WESTERN GRANT...NORTHERN OUACHITA...SOUTHEASTERN
HOT SPRING AND NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL 800 AM CDT...

AT 714 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES EAST OF CADDO
VALLEY TO 13 MILES EAST OF RICHWOODS TO NEAR SPARKMAN TO NEAR
CHIDESTER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHERIDAN...            BEARDEN...             LEOLA...
SPARKMAN...            THORNTON...            CARTHAGE...
PRATTSVILLE...         POYEN...               CHIDESTER...
JENKINS FERRY STATE ...
DOGWOOD...             THIEL...
HARLOW...              AMY...                 RAMSEY...
WILLOW...              BRUSH CREEK...         BUNN...
MANNING...             LONO...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.

LAT...LON 3441 9247 3420 9237 3404 9239 3374 9249
      3371 9305 3386 9292 3400 9291 3420 9295
TIME...MOT...LOC 1214Z 245DEG 28KT 3415 9288 3403 9286 3389 9287 3375
9296

64

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
849 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

ARZ033-044>046-056-057-291430-
ARKANSAS AR-JEFFERSON AR-WHITE AR-PRAIRIE AR-PULASKI AR-LONOKE AR-
849 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...EASTERN
PULASKI...LONOKE...NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...SOUTH CENTRAL WHITE AND
WESTERN PRAIRIE COUNTIES UNTIL 930 AM CDT...

AT 849 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OLMSTEAD TO NEAR METO TO
ENGLAND TO NEAR WARBRITTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTH LITTLE ROCK...   SHERWOOD...            JACKSONVILLE...
CABOT...               STUTTGART...           LONOKE...
HAZEN...               LITTLE ROCK AFB...     BEEBE...
WARD...                ENGLAND...             CARLISLE...
AUSTIN IN LONOKE COU...
ALTHEIMER...           HUMPHREY...
HUMNOKE...             KEO...                 BARRETTSVILLE...
TOLTEC MOUNDS STATE ...
PARKERS CORNER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS.

LAT...LON 3440 9155 3428 9206 3452 9207 3473 9214
      3491 9227 3519 9184 3493 9159 3472 9154
TIME...MOT...LOC 1349Z 247DEG 31KT 3495 9221 3476 9206 3456 9199 3433
9200

44