Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
830 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

.Discussion...

Most of the evening convection was winding down, except in the
northwest parts of AR. It has intensified initially but still expect
storms to slowly weaken over next few hours, as they move east
southeast. Did update a bit earlier to fine tune forecast due to
convection trends and ending of excessive heat advisory. Will do
this again a bit later to fine tune overnight convection trends.
Otherwise, a frontal boundary will gradually sag south later tonight
and into Saturday, and help develop convection on Saturday. This
will also help lower temperatures on Saturday and only a heat
advisory is planned at this time. Lows tonight are expected in the
70s in most locations. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 620 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016/
.Aviation...

Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Friday evening convection is winding down, and only a slight chance
will be seen the rest of this evening and overnight. Coverage will
be quite low and will only include in northwest and southeast parts
of AR, including possible KHRO and KLLQ Tafs. Only patchy fog and
ceilings overnight but will again not include in Tafs due to very
low coverage. Winds will be southeast to southwest 5 to 10 mph,
becoming mainly light and variable overnight with a light southeast
flow. Similar weather conditions expected for Saturday. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 305 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016/

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday Night

Once again this aftn...WDLY SCTD convection noted ovr the FA. One
note of interest fm earlier was a dense shield of higher clouds ovr
NERN AR which inhibited storm formation. However...storms did manage
to dvlp along the leading edge of the cloud shield where max heating
occurred. Mid aftn temps were well into the 90s to arnd 100
degrees... with rain cooled areas in the 80s.

The much talked about upr high is fcst to rmn centered to our W thru
the weekend. The rdg itself wl contract somewhat...allowing a more
NWLY flow aloft to prevail ovr the Mis-South. This wl allow a weak
fntl bndry to drop SWD into AR...with somewhat better chcs for
organized convection.

As far at temps...expect another hot day acrs the Natural State on
Sat. However...high temps wl be held down a few degrees due to more
clouds and rain chcs as compared to recent days.

Aftn heat index values are still expected to exceed 105 degrees over
much of CNTRL/SRN AR Sat Aftn...where a Heat Advisory is already
posted. A few locations ovr SRN AR may reach a heat index of 110
degrees Sat aftn...but this wl not be a widespread occurance. No
additional heat headlines are planned for the rest of the weekend as
the aforemtioned fntl bndry lingers ovr AR...along with more clouds
and contd rain chcs.
&&

.Long Term...Sunday through Friday

An upper level high pressure system will be over the southern U.S.
to begin the long term period. This pattern will continue through
much of the long term period. Models indicate the high shifting to
the east for Tuesday and Wednesday then back to the west Thursday
and Friday.

Hot and humid conditions will continue through the period and small
rain chances will continue in the afternoons. Better rain chances
will be on Sunday when several short waves move through northwest
flow over Arkansas. Highs will be in the mid 80s to mid 90s Sunday
and Monday...then the heat returns for the middle and late part of
next week.
&&

Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-
Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-
Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Monroe-Montgomery-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Pope-
Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Sharp-White-Woodruff-Yell.

Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 PM CDT Saturday FOR
Arkansas-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-Drew-
Faulkner-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Jackson-Jefferson-
Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Monroe-Montgomery-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-
Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-White-Woodruff-Yell.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Baxter-Fulton-Izard-
Stone.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Saturday FOR Cleburne-Polk-Scott-Van
Buren.
&&

Short Term...44 / Long Term...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
800 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-061000-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-
CALHOUN-BRADLEY-DREW-
800 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE A LOWER THREAT. LATER TONIGHT
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
A RISK IF THE STORMS MOVE SLOWLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING TO AROUND 105 DEGREES FOR
MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE THREAT OF ANY
ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.
HOWEVER A STRONGER STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...BUT STORM REPORTS ARE
REQUESTED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LZK.

57/59

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