Severe Thunderstorm Warning 274, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1250 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

.AVIATION...04/18z Taf Cycle

Sctd CU wl cont to dvlp this aftn...with WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA
expected. Once again...due to limited coverage...left out mention
in the fcst. Convection wl diminish early this evening.
Otherwise...VFR conds wl prevail. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 300 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
If I could cut and paste my discussion from this time yesterday
into today's discussion I would, because there's really not much
change to the overall picture.

However, we did decide to upgrade a large part of the Heat
Advisory to an Excessive Heat Warning through 00Z. It
unfortunately looks like indices could exceed 110 degrees for a
few hours, especially in the Arkansas River and Lower White River
Valleys.

Beyond that, we'll continue to deal with isolated diurnal
convection. And, as we saw yesterday, isolated stronger storms on
100-degree days can quickly become severe.

Is it fall yet?

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Hot and humid conditions will continue through the long term period
as upper level high pressure remains centered over the region. A
boundary will be present in Arkansas during the period...providing a
focus for afternoon convection and resulting in scattered convection
across much of the state. Rain chances will be mostly during the
daytime hours and driven by the heat of the day.

Temperatures will remain warm...likely above normal values...though
perhaps a couple degrees cooler than readings the last couple of
days.

FIRE WEATHER...
No significant fire weather issues are expected through the next
seven days. The biggest concerns will be protection of crews out
in the field due to excessive heat. Observe all precautions
necessary.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Bradley-
Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-Drew-
Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Monroe-Montgomery-
Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Sharp-
Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-Drew-
Faulkner-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-
Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Monroe-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-White-Woodruff-Yell.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
401 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-051000-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-
CALHOUN-BRADLEY-DREW-
401 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE 105 TO
110 DEGREE RANGE OVER MUCH OF ARKANSAS. IN A FEW PLACES...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS. COMPLETE ALL
OUTSIDE WORK EARLY OR POSTPONE IT IF POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE THREAT OF ANY ORGANIZED OR WIDSEPREAD STRONG OR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW. HOWEVER...ANY STRONGER STORM COULD
BECOME SEVERE...WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HEAD INDEX
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 105 DEGREES OR MORE IN MANY PLACES ACROSS
THE STATE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL...BUT BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED
DURING THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE OVERALL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD
OCCUR. THE MAIN THREAT IN SUCH A CASE WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LZK.

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