Severe Thunderstorm Warning 245, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
251 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.Short Term...Tonight through Tuesday

Heat advisory will be allowed to expire this evening on schedule as
pattern starts to transform somewhat. While it will stay hot, after
all its July in the mid south, the oppressive heat will be ending
for the time being.

Latest moisture channel imagery showing a mid level trough moving
through the northern plains at this time. System is suppressing the
ridge and moving its axis to the west with a lowering of heights and
cooler temperatures. A weak impulse in the upper flow is moving
along the periphery of the upper high and helping to ignite this
afternoons convection. Some of this activity will likely persist
after dark as opposed to falling apart after the loss of heating like
the past few nights.

Attention will then turn to a cold front approaching from the north.
Latest data indicates it may barely get into the northern counties
tonight with at least some precipitation chances warranted. Forecast
for both Monday and Tuesday will be muddled with the aforementioned
frontal boundary in the area and the area in between upper level
highs to the west and to the east.

As such, will need to keep some scattered precipitation chances in
the forecast as a result with temperatures very close to where they
should be for this time of the year. The majority of the precip will
be diurnal in nature, aided by the plethora of outflow boundaries
still lurking about.

&&

.Long Term...Tuesday night through Sunday

Basically...the models cont to indc that an unsettled wx pattern wl
prevail acrs the mid-South thru the long term pd. The overall upr
air pattern wl transition...with upr highs bcmg centered ovr the 4-
corners region in the W...and a Bermuda high off the SE coastal
region.

The main storm track wl stay well N of AR thru the pd...with a broad
upr trof/shear zone situated ovr the FA. With plenty of moisture
holding in place...a series of weak upr lvl impulses wl combine to
produce scattered SHRA/TSRA pretty much each day. While most of the
convection wl be diurnally driven...low POPS wl be included durg the
overnight hrs for any lingering activity.

Models do cont to indc that a fntl bndry wl attempt to drop SEWD
into CNTRL and SRN MO later in the pd. If this trend holds...NRN AR
could see better chcs for organized convection later this coming
week and into next weekend. Locally heavy rainfall wl also bcm a
concern for locations where several rounds of convection occur in a
fairly short pd of time. One highlight wl be that daytime temps wl
be closer to normal thru the pd...thanks to abundant cloud cover and
contd rain chcs.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75  92  74  92 /  30  50  30  40
Camden AR         75  93  74  95 /  30  50  20  30
Harrison AR       73  88  72  88 /  30  50  30  40
Hot Springs AR    76  92  75  94 /  30  50  20  30
Little Rock   AR  78  94  77  95 /  30  50  20  30
Monticello AR     77  94  76  95 /  30  50  20  30
Mount Ida AR      74  91  73  93 /  30  50  30  30
Mountain Home AR  74  90  74  89 /  30  50  30  40
Newport AR        76  93  75  93 /  30  50  30  40
Pine Bluff AR     75  93  74  93 /  30  50  20  30
Russellville AR   76  92  75  93 /  30  50  30  30
Searcy AR         75  93  75  94 /  30  50  20  30
Stuttgart AR      77  93  76  94 /  30  50  20  30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-
Yell.

&&

Short Term...56 / Long Term...44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-251000-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-
CALHOUN-BRADLEY-DREW-
500 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY WILL AGAIN BE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES...AND
COMBINED WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 110 DEGREES. EXTRA CAUTION SHOULD BE TAKE
TO MINIMIZE THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH HEAT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...WITH
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY ALSO BE SEEN IN SPOTS AND LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. AFTER
SUNSET THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE COMING
WEEK...ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE A BIT...AND POSSIBLY
LOWER THE TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 90S...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 105 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST EACH DAY OF THE COMING WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS A BIT. OTHER THAN CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD ALSO BE SEEN. GIVEN THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF ANY STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE THREAT
FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LZK.

59

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
341 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

ARZ023-024-032-242130-
VAN BUREN AR-CLEBURNE AR-FAULKNER AR-
341 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN VAN BUREN...
NORTHWESTERN FAULKNER AND SOUTHWESTERN CLEBURNE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
CDT...

AT 341 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
DAMASCUS...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF CLINTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENBRIER...                     WOOSTER...
QUITMAN...                        GUY...
DAMASCUS...                       TWIN GROVES...
MALLET TOWN...                    WOOLLY HOLLOW STATE PARK...
FAIRBANKS...                      BEE BRANCH...
SOUTHSIDE IN VAN BUREN COUNTY...  MARTINVILLE...
MORGANTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3551 9222 3521 9225 3521 9252 3523 9253
      3525 9251 3526 9251 3528 9249 3537 9248
      3553 9242
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 013DEG 11KT 3541 9237

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