Severe Thunderstorm Warning 244, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
255 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.Short Term...Tonight through Sunday night

Much like yesterday, convection developed rapidly by early afternoon
but a little more concentrated over the south versus previous days.
Current temperatures are actually running a little behind yesterday
but dew points are higher leading to excessive heat warnings around
the metropolitan area with a heat advisory covering the remainder of
the CWA. The very hot conditions will continue on Sunday and the
heat advisory will be continued but the extended period will offer
some relief.

Strong upper ridge that has been dominating of late is showing some
signs of breaking down. Latest moisture channel imagery shows an
upper trough over the western high plains that is effectively
flattening out this feature. Moisture channel imagery also shows an
upper level disturbance along the Tennessee/Mississippi border, on
the eastern periphery of the ridge, which is helping to enhance the
convection.

Precipitation chances will decrease this evening before ramping up
again tonight and especially Sunday as the aforementioned upper
disturbance drifts southwest through the day. Rain chances will be
higher over the south as a result. With PWATS in excess of two
inches and light winds aloft, locally heavy rain can not be
discounted. Precipitation chances will decrease Sunday night as the
disturbance weakens/moves into Texas by Monday morning.

&&

Long Term...Monday through Saturday

The gist of the long term period has not changed much. High
amplitude upper ridge will have broken down come Monday, thanks to a
couple of shortwave troughs making upper flow across the Canadian
border more zonal. Afterward the models are in good agreement with
building the ridge over the western United States by mid to late
week which will offer continued relief from the excessive heat we
have seen of late.

In addition to the relief in the heat, the pattern change will lead
to increased rain chances. This will be a mix of diurnally driven
convective tendencies, as well as the possibility of some MCS
activity. As such kept rain chances in the forecast during both the
daytime and nighttime hours, with the highest chances during the
afternoon and evening. One other thing to note about the long term
period is that precipitable water values will be fairly
high...around or exceeding 2 inches...through the period. With
overall weak flow and high PWAT levels, the possibility for flash
flooding will be of concern as storms will be efficient rain
producers and slow moving.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     96  77  93  76 /  30  20  30  20
Camden AR         99  78  95  74 /  30  30  50  30
Harrison AR       95  76  94  73 /  30  10  30  20
Hot Springs AR    99  78  96  74 /  30  30  40  30
Little Rock   AR 101  78  96  76 /  30  30  40  20
Monticello AR     96  78  93  75 /  30  40  60  30
Mount Ida AR      99  76  95  73 /  30  20  30  30
Mountain Home AR  97  76  95  74 /  30  10  30  20
Newport AR        97  77  94  76 /  30  20  40  20
Pine Bluff AR     96  78  93  75 /  30  40  50  30
Russellville AR   99  77  96  75 /  30  20  30  20
Searcy AR         97  77  94  74 /  30  30  40  20
Stuttgart AR      97  77  94  75 /  30  40  50  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-
Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-
Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR Faulkner-
Lonoke-Pulaski-Saline-White.

&&

Short Term...56 / Long Term...64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1130 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-241000-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-
CALHOUN-BRADLEY-DREW-
1130 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON  AND TONIGHT

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH
ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
PEAKING FROM 100 TO 110 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

HEAT INDICES WILL EXCEED 110 DEGREES IN AND NEAR THE LITTLE ROCK
METROPOLITAN AREA. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS AS THESE CONDITIONS CAN CREATE HEAT
ILLNESSES.

SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE SEEN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND
POTENTIALLY INTO MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE
90S...MAYBE APPROACHING 100. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK OVER 105
DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE
STATE.

CHANCES FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
STARTING SUNDAY...AND THROUGH PRETTY MUCH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER
THAN CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD ALSO BE
SEEN. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LZK.

62/66/56

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
537 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

ARZ044-056-232300-
JEFFERSON AR-PULASKI AR-
537 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI AND
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 537 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
REDFIELD...OR 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF SHERIDAN. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
REDFIELD...                       HENSLEY ISLAND...
KEARNEY...                        WRIGHT...
HENSLEY...                        LOCK AND DAM 5 PARK...
F.B. BAUGH RECREATION AREA...     TAR CAMP PARK...
JEFFERSON...

LAT...LON 3452 9221 3453 9205 3440 9204 3439 9220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 320DEG 1KT 3447 9215

46

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