Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
229 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday
Immediate forecast concern is the MCS approaching the forecast
area from eastern Oklahoma. This convective system is expected to
continue to slide to the southeast...along a well defined
instability gradient...exiting the forecast area by 15/04z.
Recent output of CAM type models have converged towards this
solution. Near term forecasts account for the expected movement
of this system.

An additional complex is expected to form overnight to the west
of the initial system...and again move to the
southeast...affecting at least western sections after 15/06z.

Mid level lapse rates...and forcing along smaller scale boundaries will
provide support for convection during the rest of this period.
Conditions supporting organized convective complexes...as of those
supporting today's activity...are not expected. Any severe
thunderstorm activity will be limited to diurnally
enhanced...pulse type single cells.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
If I could sum up the extended forecast in two words it would be
"ridge" and "hot". An upper level ridge will dominate through the
entire period and above normal temperatures will be the rule.
Afternoon max values could top out over 100 in some areas.

There will be some low precipitation chances toward the latter half
of the period as the center of the ridge settles in over the
mid plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     73  89  70  90 /  50  40  30  20
Camden AR         77  93  75  95 /  50  30  30  40
Harrison AR       69  86  69  87 /  50  40  30  40
Hot Springs AR    75  92  75  92 /  70  40  30  30
Little Rock   AR  76  92  74  92 /  60  40  30  30
Monticello AR     77  92  75  93 /  70  40  30  40
Mount Ida AR      73  91  72  91 /  70  50  30  30
Mountain Home AR  70  87  70  87 /  50  40  30  30
Newport AR        73  89  71  90 /  50  40  30  20
Pine Bluff AR     76  92  74  92 /  60  40  30  30
Russellville AR   74  91  74  91 /  70  50  30  30
Searcy AR         73  90  72  91 /  50  40  30  30
Stuttgart AR      75  91  73  92 /  50  40  30  30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...55 / Long Term...53

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
340 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-151000-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-
CALHOUN-BRADLEY-DREW-
340 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE AREA AS STORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO ARKANSAS. THESE STORMS HAVE
BEEN OCCASIONALLY SEVERE IN OKLAHOMA...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO
ARKANSAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LARGE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE STATE.

LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THIS EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS COULD BE SEEN...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO BE SEEN
WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE SEEN WITH
THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT COULD ALSO BE
SEEN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
WHILE THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...SOME
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE SEEN.

CHANCES FOR RAINFALL DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN INCREASE WELL INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100.
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY INCREASE OVER 105 DEGREES DURING THIS SAME
PERIOD...WITH HEAT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LZK.

62/44

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