Alert archive / Arkansas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2016

Flash Flood Warning 69, NWS Little Rock, AR

July 30, 2016Desha County, Drew County, Arkansas

NWS Little Rock, AR issued this flash flood warning at Jul 30, 2016, 5:35 PM CDT for Desha County, Drew County, Arkansas. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 30, 2016, 5:35 PM CDT (22:35 UTC)
Expired
Jul 30, 2016, 8:30 PM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS Little Rock, AR
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 139 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 186 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2016-07-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 523 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2016-07-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 31 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
523 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-88 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
968 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
31 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
25 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

974 
WGUS54 KLZK 302235
FFWLZK
ARC041-043-310130-
/O.NEW.KLZK.FF.W.0069.160730T2235Z-160731T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
535 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN DESHA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHEASTERN DREW COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT
    
* AT 534 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
  HEAVY RAIN OVER TILLAR. THE STORM IS NEARLY STATIONARY. UP TO
  THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS.
  FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  TILLAR...                         WINCHESTER...
  REED...                           YUKON...
  SELMA...                          

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW! ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

&&

LAT...LON 3382 9143 3366 9137 3367 9159 3378 9160
      3378 9155

$$

65

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 30, 2:22 PM CDT, 3 hours 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 30, 2:22 PM CDT, 3 hours 13 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
635 PM CDT JUL 30 2016

.Aviation...

Evening convection will affect KLIT, KPBF and KLLQ and will use VCTS
and Tempo groups at Taf sites. VFR conditions are forecast overall
with MVFR conditions with storms. Have seen heavy rain, gusty winds
to around 25 TO 35 knots with storms and a lot of lightning. The
storms will continue to drift southeast and gradually weaken through
midnight. Overnight, areas of MVFR with isolated showers or
thunderstorms may be seen, with some fog and low clouds forming.
Winds will be light and variable or less than 10 mph from the south.
Sunday will start with patchy MVFR conditions to mainly VFR with
ceilings. Then again isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon to evening. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 222 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday
Scattered convection is ongoing/developing across northern and
western Arkansas this afternoon. Expect this to fill in somewhat and
propagate southward through mostly the western half of the state
through the afternoon and early evening hours. Will carry chance
PoPs into the eastern parts of the forecast area but it appears
western Arkansas will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms
today.

An upper ridge will begin to build back into the region from the
southwest on Sunday. Northwest flow aloft will likely bring one more
MCS into the state during the day tomorrow...so will continue with
chance PoPs for Sunday across the eastern half of the forecast area.
Further west...will hold on to slight chances. The ridge will not be
firmly established by tomorrow afternoon just yet so think some
isolated storms could pop there.

Temperature wise...warm overnight temperatures and highs in the low
90s will be seen.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday

There's not much I can say without sounding like a broken record,
but here goes.

The upper ridge will expand through the week, choking off large-scale
moisture, allowing for only isolated/widely scattered diurnal
convection. Humidity will remain high, with afternoon heat index
values approaching the 100-105 degree range. Fortunately, the
ridge's influence will start to diminish in the weekend,
bringing a better shot at showers/storms to the area.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No significant fire weather issues are expected through the next
seven days. Minimum humidity will remain high...generally above
the 50th percentile. There will be several chances for isolated to
widely scattered afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms, with the highest chances in the next 48 hours, and
next weekend.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     73  92  75  95 /  30  40  20  20
Camden AR         75  95  76  96 /  20  30  10  20
Harrison AR       69  89  72  93 /  30  40  20  20
Hot Springs AR    75  94  76  95 /  30  30  10  20
Little Rock   AR  75  94  76  96 /  30  30  20  20
Monticello AR     76  94  76  94 /  20  30  20  30
Mount Ida AR      74  93  75  94 /  30  30  10  20
Mountain Home AR  70  90  73  94 /  30  40  20  20
Newport AR        73  91  74  94 /  20  40  20  30
Pine Bluff AR     74  93  75  94 /  20  40  20  30
Russellville AR   74  94  75  96 /  30  40  20  20
Searcy AR         74  93  74  95 /  30  40  20  30
Stuttgart AR      74  93  76  94 /  20  40  20  30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...57 / Long Term...64
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 30, 3:15 PM CDT, 2 hours 20 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
315 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-311000-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-CALHOUN-
BRADLEY-DREW-
315 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREATS OF THE SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS. SOME HAIL WILL BE SEEN...WITH ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS THAT COULD LEAD TO SPOTTY FLASH FLOODING. AFTER
SUNSET...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE FORECAST ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAY THREATS.  THEN HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS FROM THE
PLAINS. UNDER THE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES
IN SPOTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT REPORTS ARE REQUESTED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LZK.

46/59

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 30, 4:21 PM CDT, 1 hour 14 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
421 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

ARZ033-302200-
WHITE AR-
421 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WHITE COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM CDT...

AT 421 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR GRAVEL HILL...OR 14 MILES NORTH OF CABOT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEEBE...                          MCRAE...
GARNER...                         ANTIOCH IN WHITE COUNTY...
FLOYD...                          ROMANCE...

LAT...LON 3516 9211 3527 9205 3518 9175 3503 9187
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 295DEG 20KT 3518 9201

65
Special weather statement, Jul 30, 4:36 PM CDT, 59 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
436 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

ARZ054-302200-
HOT SPRING AR-
436 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HOT SPRING COUNTY
UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 435 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MALVERN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MALVERN...                        ROCKPORT...
PERLA...                          DONALDSON...
FRIENDSHIP...                     SOCIAL HILL...
CENTRAL...                        LONO...
MIDWAY IN HOT SPRING COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3417 9301 3429 9303 3443 9278 3431 9274
      3418 9269
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 248DEG 12KT 3426 9292

65
Special weather statement, Jul 30, 4:45 PM CDT, 50 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
445 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

ARZ052-053-302215-
PIKE AR-CLARK AR-
445 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PIKE AND
NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 445 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR AMITY...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF MURFREESBORO...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AMITY...                          ALPINE...
ROSBORO...                        SHAWMUT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3411 9357 3426 9363 3434 9340 3416 9328
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 248DEG 12KT 3423 9354

65
Special weather statement, Jul 30, 4:50 PM CDT, 45 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
450 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

ARZ039-044-302215-
PERRY AR-PULASKI AR-
450 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PULASKI AND EAST
CENTRAL PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 450 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
WYE MOUNTAIN...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PERRYVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WYE MOUNTAIN...                   WYE...

LAT...LON 3488 9250 3483 9265 3485 9265 3486 9273
      3494 9276 3497 9269
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 324DEG 16KT 3490 9268

65
Special weather statement, Jul 30, 5:00 PM CDT, 35 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

ARZ032-044-302230-
PULASKI AR-FAULKNER AR-
500 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PULASKI AND SOUTH
CENTRAL FAULKNER COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 500 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MAYFLOWER...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF MAUMELLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTH LITTLE ROCK...              SHERWOOD...
JACKSONVILLE...                   LITTLE ROCK AFB...
OAK GROVE IN PULASKI COUNTY...    MARCHE...
OLMSTEAD...                       GIBSON...
GRAVEL RIDGE...                   CAMP ROBINSON...
SYLVAN HILLS...                   MACON...
CATO...                           SALTILLO...

LAT...LON 3500 9240 3505 9229 3491 9209 3481 9234
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 329DEG 11KT 3496 9232

65
Special weather statement, Jul 30, 5:02 PM CDT, 33 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
502 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

ARZ043-044-302230-
SALINE AR-PULASKI AR-
502 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL PULASKI AND NORTH
CENTRAL SALINE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 502 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTHWEST OF SALEM IN SALINE COUNTY... OR 12 MILES WEST OF
WEST LITTLE ROCK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AVILLA...                         CONGO...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3479 9270 3482 9262 3471 9247 3462 9264
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 331DEG 12KT 3475 9264

65

The office that day

Everything else NWS Little Rock, AR issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 29, 7:12 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKClark33 min
Jul 29, 7:29 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKPolk46 min
Jul 29, 7:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKClark, Hot Spring, Montgomery, Pike40 min
Jul 29, 8:03 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKClark, Hot Spring, Montgomery, Pike3 hr
Jul 30, 2:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKScott42 min
Jul 30, 2:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKGarland, Montgomery27 min
Jul 30, 2:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKMontgomery, Pike26 min
Jul 30, 2:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKVan Buren39 min
Jul 30, 3:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKYell33 min
Jul 30, 3:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKGarland, Hot Spring52 min
Jul 30, 3:21 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKScott39 min
Jul 30, 3:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKMontgomery, Polk41 min
Jul 30, 3:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKGarland, Hot Spring17 min
Jul 30, 4:21 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKWhite39 min
Jul 30, 4:26 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKPolk3 hr
Jul 30, 4:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLonoke, Prairie, White25 min
Jul 30, 4:36 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKHot Spring24 min
Jul 30, 4:45 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKPike30 min
Jul 30, 4:50 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKPerry25 min
Jul 30, 4:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLonoke, Prairie, White, Woodruff47 min
Jul 30, 5:00 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKPulaski30 min
Jul 30, 5:02 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKSaline28 min
Jul 30, 5:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKClark32 min
Jul 30, 5:49 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKPerry, Pulaski, Saline3 hr
Jul 30, 5:55 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKWoodruff50 min
Jul 30, 6:07 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKCleveland23 min
Jul 30, 6:51 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLZKDrew, Lincoln39 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arkansas, 2016Every flash flood warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.