Alert archive / Arkansas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2016
Flash Flood Warning 68, NWS Little Rock, AR
NWS Little Rock, AR issued this flash flood warning at Jul 30, 2016, 4:26 PM CDT for Polk County, Arkansas. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 30, 2016, 4:26 PM CDT (21:26 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 30, 2016, 7:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Little Rock, AR
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- None
County Polk County, AR
The radar
The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Shreveport, LA (KBAD), launched 12:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 219 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1071 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -47 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1027 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 9 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -66 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -2 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
933
WGUS54 KLZK 302126
FFWLZK
ARC113-310030-
/O.NEW.KLZK.FF.W.0068.160730T2126Z-160731T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
426 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...
* UNTIL 730 PM CDT
* AT 424 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COSSATOT RIVER STATE PARK
TO SHADY...TO BARD SPRINGS RECREATION AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE PAST HOUR. FLASH FLOODING IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
HARTLEY... SHADY...
COSSATOT RIVER STATE PARK... BARD SPRINGS RECREATION AREA...
CANEY CREEK WILDERNESS... ROARING BRANCH NATURAL AREA...
SHADY LAKE RECREATION AREA...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW! ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.
&&
LAT...LON 3448 9427 3450 9413 3445 9397 3435 9397
3435 9417 3436 9423
$$
65What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 30, 2:22 PM CDT, 2 hours 4 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 30, 2:22 PM CDT, 2 hours 4 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation National Weather Service Little Rock AR 635 PM CDT JUL 30 2016 .Aviation... Evening convection will affect KLIT, KPBF and KLLQ and will use VCTS and Tempo groups at Taf sites. VFR conditions are forecast overall with MVFR conditions with storms. Have seen heavy rain, gusty winds to around 25 TO 35 knots with storms and a lot of lightning. The storms will continue to drift southeast and gradually weaken through midnight. Overnight, areas of MVFR with isolated showers or thunderstorms may be seen, with some fog and low clouds forming. Winds will be light and variable or less than 10 mph from the south. Sunday will start with patchy MVFR conditions to mainly VFR with ceilings. Then again isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon to evening. (59) && .Prev Discussion.../ Issued 222 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/ .SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday Scattered convection is ongoing/developing across northern and western Arkansas this afternoon. Expect this to fill in somewhat and propagate southward through mostly the western half of the state through the afternoon and early evening hours. Will carry chance PoPs into the eastern parts of the forecast area but it appears western Arkansas will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms today. An upper ridge will begin to build back into the region from the southwest on Sunday. Northwest flow aloft will likely bring one more MCS into the state during the day tomorrow...so will continue with chance PoPs for Sunday across the eastern half of the forecast area. Further west...will hold on to slight chances. The ridge will not be firmly established by tomorrow afternoon just yet so think some isolated storms could pop there. Temperature wise...warm overnight temperatures and highs in the low 90s will be seen. && .LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday There's not much I can say without sounding like a broken record, but here goes. The upper ridge will expand through the week, choking off large-scale moisture, allowing for only isolated/widely scattered diurnal convection. Humidity will remain high, with afternoon heat index values approaching the 100-105 degree range. Fortunately, the ridge's influence will start to diminish in the weekend, bringing a better shot at showers/storms to the area. && .FIRE WEATHER... No significant fire weather issues are expected through the next seven days. Minimum humidity will remain high...generally above the 50th percentile. There will be several chances for isolated to widely scattered afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms, with the highest chances in the next 48 hours, and next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 73 92 75 95 / 30 40 20 20 Camden AR 75 95 76 96 / 20 30 10 20 Harrison AR 69 89 72 93 / 30 40 20 20 Hot Springs AR 75 94 76 95 / 30 30 10 20 Little Rock AR 75 94 76 96 / 30 30 20 20 Monticello AR 76 94 76 94 / 20 30 20 30 Mount Ida AR 74 93 75 94 / 30 30 10 20 Mountain Home AR 70 90 73 94 / 30 40 20 20 Newport AR 73 91 74 94 / 20 40 20 30 Pine Bluff AR 74 93 75 94 / 20 40 20 30 Russellville AR 74 94 75 96 / 30 40 20 20 Searcy AR 74 93 74 95 / 30 40 20 30 Stuttgart AR 74 93 76 94 / 20 40 20 30 && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && Short Term...57 / Long Term...64
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 30, 3:15 PM CDT, 1 hour 11 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 315 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016 ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-311000- BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD- INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY- FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND- SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT- JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-CALHOUN- BRADLEY-DREW- 315 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREATS OF THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. SOME HAIL WILL BE SEEN...WITH ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD LEAD TO SPOTTY FLASH FLOODING. AFTER SUNSET...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAY THREATS. THEN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS FROM THE PLAINS. UNDER THE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES IN SPOTS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT REPORTS ARE REQUESTED. && VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LZK. 46/59
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 30, 3:21 PM CDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 321 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016 ARZ037-302100- SCOTT AR- 321 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SCOTT COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM CDT... AT 321 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BEAUCHAMP...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF WALDRON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BOLES... PARKS... NEEDMORE... Y CITY... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 3470 9420 3485 9420 3489 9394 3469 9391 TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 276DEG 9KT 3476 9414 65
Local storm report, Jul 30, 4:10 PM CDT, 16 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
410 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0305 PM TSTM WND DMG CHOCTAW RECREATION AREA 35.53N 92.38W
07/30/2016 VAN BUREN AR PUBLIC
TWO TREES REPORTED DOWN.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LZK1600083
JHOODSpecial weather statement, Jul 30, 4:21 PM CDT, 5 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 421 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016 ARZ033-302200- WHITE AR- 421 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WHITE COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM CDT... AT 421 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GRAVEL HILL...OR 14 MILES NORTH OF CABOT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BEEBE... MCRAE... GARNER... ANTIOCH IN WHITE COUNTY... FLOYD... ROMANCE... LAT...LON 3516 9211 3527 9205 3518 9175 3503 9187 TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 295DEG 20KT 3518 9201 65
The office that day
Everything else NWS Little Rock, AR issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 7:12 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LZK | Clark | 33 min |
| Jul 29, 7:29 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LZK | Polk | 46 min |
| Jul 29, 7:35 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Clark, Hot Spring, Montgomery, Pike | 40 min |
| Jul 29, 8:03 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | Clark, Hot Spring, Montgomery, Pike | 3 hr |
| Jul 30, 2:33 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Scott | 42 min |
| Jul 30, 2:42 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Garland, Montgomery | 27 min |
| Jul 30, 2:44 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Montgomery, Pike | 26 min |
| Jul 30, 2:51 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Van Buren | 39 min |
| Jul 30, 3:07 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Yell | 33 min |
| Jul 30, 3:08 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Garland, Hot Spring | 52 min |
| Jul 30, 3:21 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LZK | Scott | 39 min |
| Jul 30, 3:52 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Montgomery, Polk | 41 min |
| Jul 30, 3:56 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Garland, Hot Spring | 17 min |
| Jul 30, 4:21 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LZK | White | 39 min |
| Jul 30, 4:35 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Lonoke, Prairie, White | 25 min |
| Jul 30, 4:36 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LZK | Hot Spring | 24 min |
| Jul 30, 4:45 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LZK | Pike | 30 min |
| Jul 30, 4:50 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LZK | Perry | 25 min |
| Jul 30, 4:58 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Lonoke, Prairie, White, Woodruff | 47 min |
| Jul 30, 5:00 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LZK | Pulaski | 30 min |
| Jul 30, 5:02 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LZK | Saline | 28 min |
| Jul 30, 5:13 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Clark | 32 min |
| Jul 30, 5:35 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | Desha, Drew | 3 hr |
| Jul 30, 5:49 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | Perry, Pulaski, Saline | 3 hr |
| Jul 30, 5:55 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LZK | Woodruff | 50 min |
| Jul 30, 6:07 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LZK | Cleveland | 23 min |
| Jul 30, 6:51 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LZK | Drew, Lincoln | 39 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arkansas, 2016Every flash flood warning in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.