Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
525 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

.AVIATION...
FORECASTS WILL REFLECT CURRENT PRECIPITATION SHIELD...TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH 04Z. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL 06-13Z.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WELL...AFTER A BIT OF A DELAYED START...RAIN IS DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE
DELTA REGION...AND THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WET WEATHER
THIS WEEK IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BEING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAIN AREA
OF RAIN WILL MOVE UP INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH MOST
AREAS SEEING A RESPITE...AT LEAST UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STILL
NOT EXPECTING OVERLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE SYSTEM TONIGHT...BUT
ONE TO TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE FALLING AS STRAIGHT
RUNOFF...AND WILL PROLONG ANY HIGH WATER ISSUES. SO...WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

AFTER LATE TONIGHT...FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE COLD FRONT...
SURFACE LOW AND CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH THE WARM FRONT PAST THE REGION...
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE WARMING INTO THE 70S
AREAWIDE. THE WARMER TEMPS...HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD OFFER LITTLE IF ANY
HINDRANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A CONCERN. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY WAY FOR THINGS TO EVOLVE WOULD BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
GREATEST WITH THESE CELLS. AFTER SUNSET...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL
WANE...WITH THE SYSTEM EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A WIND/HAIL EVENT.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING. DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND WITH WINDS COMING BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE NO
PROBLEM WARMING INTO THE 70S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PARENT LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALL THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ONTO
THE WEST COAST THURSDAY AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH SATURDAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE 70S AND 80S. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTER A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE DRY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. HUMIDITY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
30TH PERCENTILE...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     65  54  71  54 /  60  80  60  60
CAMDEN AR         68  54  76  53 /  70  40  40  30
HARRISON AR       63  51  68  50 /  40  50  60  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    66  53  72  52 /  60  50  60  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  54  73  54 /  70  70  60  50
MONTICELLO AR     69  56  74  56 /  80  60  40  50
MOUNT IDA AR      66  52  71  52 /  60  40  60  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  52  71  52 /  40  60  60  50
NEWPORT AR        66  54  71  53 /  60  80  60  70
PINE BLUFF AR     68  55  73  54 /  80  70  50  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  53  71  51 /  50  50  60  40
SEARCY AR         67  53  72  53 /  70  80  60  60
STUTTGART AR      68  55  72  55 /  80  80  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DESHA-DREW-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-MONROE-
OUACHITA.

&&

AVIATION...99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
530 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-131100-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-
CALHOUN-BRADLEY-DREW-
530 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

RAIN...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH
OF ARKANSAS SATURDAY EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...AND SPREAD THE RAIN
TO ARKANSAS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. DUE TO THE OVERALL HEAVY RAIN THAT HAS
FALLEN...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE IN SOME
LOCALS. THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE QUITE LOW.
LATER TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION...SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERING THE CHANCE OF RAIN.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING OVER PARTS
OF ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER ARKANSAS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT REPORTS OF ADDITIONAL
FLOODING ARE REQUESTED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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