Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Little Rock, AR

821 
WGUS74 KLZK 122346
FFSLZK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
546 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

ARC103-122354-
/O.CAN.KLZK.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-160313T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OUACHITA AR-
546 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR OUACHITA COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL HAS MOVED AWAY FROM OUACHITA
COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3326 9223 3327 9244 3341 9263 3380 9256
      3397 9164 3394 9105 3378 9107 3377 9115
      3366 9108 3371 9116 3368 9123 3358 9116
      3356 9124 3352 9125 3357 9145 3339 9146
      3340 9199 3330 9198 3320 9213 3316 9214

$$

ARC011-013-025-039-041-043-079-130315-
/O.CON.KLZK.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-160313T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CALHOUN AR-BRADLEY AR-DESHA AR-DALLAS AR-DREW AR-LINCOLN AR-
CLEVELAND AR-
546 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CST FOR
CALHOUN...BRADLEY...DESHA...SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS...DREW...SOUTHWESTERN
LINCOLN AND SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES...

AT 544 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN
MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCH OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
MONTICELLO...WARREN...DUMAS...FORDYCE...DERMOTT...STAR CITY...HAMPTON...
ROHWER...HERMITAGE...WILMAR...CALION...THORNTON...ARKANSAS CITY...
MITCHELLVILLE...HARRELL...TILLAR...WATSON...WINCHESTER...HEBRON AND
TIPTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN! MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3326 9223 3327 9244 3341 9263 3380 9256
      3397 9164 3394 9105 3378 9107 3377 9115
      3366 9108 3371 9116 3368 9123 3358 9116
      3356 9124 3352 9125 3357 9145 3339 9146
      3340 9199 3330 9198 3320 9213 3316 9214

$$

55

065 
WGUS74 KLZK 130153
FFSLZK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service LITTLE ROCK AR
750 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2016

ARC013-039-130200-
/O.CAN.KLZK.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-160313T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CALHOUN AR-DALLAS AR-
750 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CALHOUN AND SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AREAS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM
CALHOUN AND DALLAS COUNTIES. 

LAT...LON 3324 9221 3338 9223 3379 9214 3397 9164
      3394 9105 3378 9107 3377 9115 3367 9109
      3371 9116 3368 9123 3358 9116 3356 9124
      3352 9125 3357 9145 3339 9146 3340 9199
      3330 9198 3320 9213 3316 9214 3322 9220

$$

ARC011-025-041-043-079-130315-
/O.CON.KLZK.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-160313T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BRADLEY AR-DESHA AR-DREW AR-LINCOLN AR-CLEVELAND AR-
750 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CST FOR
BRADLEY...DESHA...DREW...SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHEASTERN
CLEVELAND COUNTIES...

At 750 PM CST, AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH 915 PM...ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RECENT
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. 

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Monticello, Warren, Dumas, Dermott, Rohwer, Hermitage, Wilmar,
Arkansas City, Mitchellville, Tillar, Watson, Winchester, Green Hill,
Omega, Herbine, Lucca Landing, Ladelle, Ingalls, Yancopin and Mills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you encounter flooded roads, Turn Around, Don't Drown! Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3324 9221 3338 9223 3379 9214 3397 9164
      3394 9105 3378 9107 3377 9115 3367 9109
      3371 9116 3368 9123 3358 9116 3356 9124
      3352 9125 3357 9145 3339 9146 3340 9199
      3330 9198 3320 9213 3316 9214 3322 9220

$$

55

804 
WGUS74 KLZK 130307
FFSLZK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
907 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

ARC041-043-079-130317-
/O.EXP.KLZK.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-160313T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DESHA AR-DREW AR-LINCOLN AR-
907 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR DESHA...DREW AND SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 915 PM CST...

LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
EVENING...HOWEVER NO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. 

LAT...LON 3378 9107 3377 9115 3373 9115 3367 9109
      3371 9116 3369 9122 3358 9116 3356 9124
      3352 9125 3355 9135 3356 9135 3357 9145
      3339 9146 3340 9200 3345 9202 3353 9201
      3353 9198 3385 9197 3397 9164 3394 9105

$$

55

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
241 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WELL...AFTER A BIT OF A DELAYED START...RAIN IS DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE
DELTA REGION...AND THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WET WEATHER
THIS WEEK IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BEING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAIN AREA
OF RAIN WILL MOVE UP INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH MOST
AREAS SEEING A RESPITE...AT LEAST UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STILL
NOT EXPECTING OVERLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE SYSTEM TONIGHT...BUT
ONE TO TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE FALLING AS STRAIGHT
RUNOFF...AND WILL PROLONG ANY HIGH WATER ISSUES. SO...WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

AFTER LATE TONIGHT...FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE COLD FRONT...
SURFACE LOW AND CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH THE WARM FRONT PAST THE REGION...
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE WARMING INTO THE 70S
AREAWIDE. THE WARMER TEMPS...HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD OFFER LITTLE IF ANY
HINDRANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A CONCERN. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY WAY FOR THINGS TO EVOLVE WOULD BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
GREATEST WITH THESE CELLS. AFTER SUNSET...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL
WANE...WITH THE SYSTEM EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A WIND/HAIL EVENT.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING. DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND WITH WINDS COMING BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE NO
PROBLEM WARMING INTO THE 70S.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PARENT LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALL THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ONTO
THE WEST COAST THURSDAY AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH SATURDAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE 70S AND 80S. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTER A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE DRY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. HUMIDITY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
30TH PERCENTILE...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     54  71  54  75 /  80  60  60  10
CAMDEN AR         54  76  53  80 /  40  40  30   0
HARRISON AR       51  68  50  74 /  50  60  40  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    53  72  52  78 /  50  60  30   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  54  73  54  77 /  70  60  50  10
MONTICELLO AR     56  74  56  78 /  60  40  50   0
MOUNT IDA AR      52  71  52  79 /  40  60  30   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  52  71  52  75 /  60  60  50  10
NEWPORT AR        54  71  53  74 /  80  60  70  10
PINE BLUFF AR     55  73  54  75 /  70  50  50  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   53  71  51  77 /  50  60  40   0
SEARCY AR         53  72  53  75 /  80  60  60  10
STUTTGART AR      55  72  55  75 /  80  60  60  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DESHA-DREW-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-MONROE-
OUACHITA.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1238 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-131100-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-
CALHOUN-BRADLEY-DREW-
1238 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF ARKANSAS TODAY. WHILE NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED...
RAINFALL MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING OR AREAL FLOODING
CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.