Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
310 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TO LAKE ERIE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH ACROSS MARYLAND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING IN VERY MOIST AND DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE.
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM
FREDERICKSBURG VA TO ABERDEEN MD. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOW STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE ORDER OF 8-10 MB/3HR SO EXPECTING WARM FRONT
TO PUSH A BIT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SVRL HOURS. ENVIRONMENT
FVRBL FOR TORNADOES DUE TO CURVED LONG HODOGRAPHS AND 0-3KM SRH
APPROACHING 600 M^2/S^2. LATEST NSSL WRF-ARW SHOWS CURRENT LINE
SOUTH OF AUGUSTA COUNTY TO INTENSIFY IN AREA OF STRONG ASCENT FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE 500 MB HEIGHT
FALLS IN THE ORDER OF 230 METER/12HR. LINE OF CONVECTION WILL THEN
RAISE AROUND 65KT CLEARING THE ENTIRE FCST AREA BY 02Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...CDFNT WILL CLEAR THE AREA
BY 06Z THU WITH RAIN ENDING. UPSLOPE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE WITH
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AFTER 06Z BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 12Z THU.
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI WITH BREEZY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS. DESPITE VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN.
BEST CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IS ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE. WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO MARGINAL FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVS AND WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVZY ATTM. ALSO...CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY OVER THE SW PART OF THE FCST AREA LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
ABLE TO CANCEL IT SOONER THAN CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL BE FIGHTING LOWERING
HEIGHTS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AS RIDGING PERSISTS OVER
WESTERN NOAM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER OVER THE PERIOD
IN AN OTHERWISE STORMY PATTERN. COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE LACKING
FOR ANY APPRECIABLE WINTRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST LATER NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE
AT KDCA...KBWI AND KMTN. CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER 03Z THU.
BREEZY THU WITH FREQ GUSTS TO 30 KT.

MAINLY VFR THIS WEEKEND W/ WLY FLOW AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THU THEN DIMINISHING INTO
SCA THU NIGHT AND BELOW SCA FRI NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE NOSING OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW
SCA LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING THREAT DIMINISHING DUE TO EXPECTED FAST
STORM MOTION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY THU.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR DCZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ003>006-011-013-014-
     503>508.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ017.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ014-018.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ011-508.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ025>027-029-503-
     504-507-508.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-
     050>056-501-502-505>508.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ055-501-502-505-
     506.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...LFR/DFH
MARINE...LFR/DFH
HYDROLOGY...LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
343 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-251000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-
ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
343 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM. THE MAIN HAZARDS
ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA...EXCEPT SOUTHERN
MARYLAND...FROM 10 AM TO MIDNIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD
MESSAGE...FFALWX...FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY REQUIRE WIND ADVISORIES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

GALE WARNINGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK HAS BEEN ACTIVATED. PLEASE FORWARD ANY
DAMAGE REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MDZ003>006-501>507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501>508-WVZ050>053-
055-501>506-251000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-
NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-
NORTHERN VA BLUE RIDGE-CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-
BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-
WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-
EASTERN PENDLETON-
343 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 11 PM FOR MOST COUNTIES EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS OF VIRGINIA. THE
MAIN HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD MESSAGE...FFALWX...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LIKELY REQUIRE WIND ADVISORIES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT EARLY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK HAS BEEN ACTIVATED. PLEASE FORWARD ANY
DAMAGE REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HTS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
452 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     FLOOD            2 NE GLENDOWER          37.86N  78.51W
02/24/2016                   ALBEMARLE          VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE FOOT OF WATER WAS FLOWING ACROSS THE ROAD IN THE
            200 BLOCK OF GLENDOWER ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1603168

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
507 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 8 E SMITH ISLAND        37.97N  75.88W
02/24/2016  M62 MPH          ANZ543             VA   BUOY

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1603169

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
519 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 WNW FREDERICKSBURG    38.32N  77.53W
02/24/2016                   STAFFORD           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED JUST NORTHWEST OF FREDERICKSBURG.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1603170

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
525 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE HEFLIN            38.50N  77.56W
02/24/2016                   STAFFORD           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES AT TACKETTS MILL ROAD AND
            MILL LANE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1603171

DH

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