Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Baltimore/Washington

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
930 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to move southeast tonight and stall to
the south by Wednesday morning. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front. The next cold front crosses the area Saturday,
stalling over the southern Mid-Atlantic Sunday and eventually
pushing south Monday as high pressure builds in from the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH tonight/...
Expanded the severe thunderstorm watch to the rest of the
southeastern zones and most of the waters and extended until
midnight. Balt- wash metro areas have been cancelled from the
watch as expected.

Overnight, the upper trough will move through and may promote
isolated showers over the area. This will all be south of the area
by daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The front should push far enough south on Wednesday and Wednesday
night that dry weather will prevail across the forecast area,
although there may be some clouds at times given mid-level
troughing. Temperatures and humidity will be a notch lower.

The boundary will return back north on Thursday and Thursday night
as the high moves to the east. GFS continues to be the wettest
model on Thursday, but there will be a return southerly flow, so
will keep small POPs over southern parts of the CWA. Temperatures
and humidity will creep back upward.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper trough of low pressure and associated cold front at the
surface will move across the region Friday and Friday night. The
chance for showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. The
timing and placement of precipitation development is uncertain at
this time, but given bulk shear around 30 kt, a few stronger
storms could occur.

Unsettled conditions could linger through much of the weekend as the
associated surface cold front lingers just to our south. Additional
showers and thunderstorms could develop along this front Saturday
through Sunday night.

The next storm system will develop along the front at the western
end of the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday as the stalled front
starts tracking northward as a warm front. The threat for showers
and thunderstorms will be concentrated across central and southern
Virginia by the end of the weekend.

This shower and thunderstorm threat will then propagate north toward
the Mason-Dixon line as the newly-formed storm system moves parallel
to the Ohio Valley Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will cross from the NW tonight with leading
thunderstorms moving SE from DC metros. Depending on how quickly
drier air arrives, there could be some fog, but did not feel
confident enough to put in the TAFs. VFR in high pressure
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Front returns north Thursday and
Thursday night, although the probability of precipitation is low.

MVFR or IFR conditions possible at times Friday through the
weekend with showers and thunderstorms. Winds southwest to west 5
to 10 knots Friday and Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Ongoing thunderstorms for southern MD waters. Cold Front pushes
south Wednesday and returns north late this week, with a cold
front being slow to push into the area this weekend. In general,
sub-SCA conditions expected.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BAJ/ADS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/KLW
MARINE...BAJ/ADS/KLW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
923 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-300130-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-
ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
923 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT NORTH-CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND SURROUNDING CHESAPEAKE BAY
WATERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND.

LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ003>006-501>507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501>508-WVZ050>053-
055-501>506-300130-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-
NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-
NORTHERN VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE-CENTRAL VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE-
HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-
EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-
EASTERN PENDLETON-
923 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

JACKSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S COLLEGE PARK        38.99N  76.94W
06/28/2016                   PRINCE GEORGES     MD   PUBLIC

            ROOF OF PARKING GARAGE DAMAGED BY HIGH WINDS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1604351

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
958 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0932 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 SW QUANTICO           38.51N  77.30W
06/28/2016  M44 MPH          PRINCE WILLIAM     VA   AWOS

            38-KNOT WIND GUST MEASURED AT QUANTICO MARINE BASE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1604352

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1004 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW GARRISONVILLE     38.47N  77.46W
06/28/2016                   STAFFORD           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            GARRISONVILLE ROAD AND SHELTON SHOP ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1604353

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1012 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0931 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE FREDERICKSBURG     38.31N  77.48W
06/28/2016                   CITY OF FREDERICKS VA   911 CALL CENTER

            WIRES DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF POWHATAN STREET AND
            COLLEGE AVENUE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1604354

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1027 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0953 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E FAIRVIEW BEACH      38.33N  77.23W
06/28/2016                   KING GEORGE        VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF POTOMAC LANDING DRIVE
            AND MARINEVIEW ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1604355

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1029 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW DAHLGREN          38.36N  77.07W
06/28/2016                   KING GEORGE        VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF OWENS DRIVE AND
            MATHIAS POINT ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1604356

DH