Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
347 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...
At 2:30 PM, Satellite imagery showed an increasingly agitated
cumulus field within a convergent zone along a stalling frontal
boundary and weak dryline from near Post eastward through Stonewall
County. Temperatures near 90F and dewpoints in the mid 50s
underneath moderate mid-level lapse rates are yielding MLCAPE values
around 2000 J/KG in this area per SPC/RAP analysis. Water vapor
imagery shows an upper-level disturbance passing through the
Southern Rockies. Large-scale ascent associated with this wave will
likely begin to spread over West Texas late this afternoon and
evening. although deep-layer wind shear is likely to remain on the
modest side through evening. As a result, isolated to scattered t-
storm development is expected during the next several hours. These
storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging outflow
wind gusts. The storms will generally move to the east, but
increasingly easterly component to the low-level flow may allow for
some redevelopment back to the west through the evening. Tonight,
thunderstorm activity originating in northeast New Mexico is
expected to track through much of the Panhandles. After midnight, a
cold front, possibly enhanced by t-storm outflow, will move south
through our forecast area. T-storm activity may spread southward
into portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains in conjunction
with this front, although confidence in the details remains low as
short-term guidance shows a wide variety of solutions. The best
chances appear to focus on the Rolling Plains where the deeper
moisture will reside. Some severe weather will also be possible in
that area overnight although the threat should be more isolated. Low
clouds and possibly some areas of drizzle will also accompany the
front, with skies gradually clearing out from the north to south
during the day. Some showers may linger across our southern Counties
through about mid-day but cool temperatures will keep any activity
on the weak side and spotty. Thursday's highs should only reach the
lower to middle 70s for most locations. The northeasterly winds will
be breezy through early morning, and then diminish while shifting to
the east in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...
12Z guidance is still on track favoring unsettled conditions this
weekend in the vicinity of a decaying upper ridge. One change worth
noting is that the ECMWF and CMC have fallen in line with the GFS in
depicting a more progressive and flatter trough upstream of said
ridge by Sunday night, so this would likely restore drier westerlies
much sooner than originally forecast.

Thursday evening begins with stable surface ridging wedging farther
south toward the I-20 corridor. This feature will depart east
through Friday morning ahead of increasingly moist southerlies,
although isentropic ascent appears very weak and not supportive of
elevated convection. This moisture should support deep convection
beginning Friday night or early Saturday in our northeast zones as a
cold front edges south under weak northwest flow. GFS remains the
most bullish with an MCS signal straddling the baroclinic zone
Friday night, however the progged low level jet is not particularly
impressive which raises some concern for MCS development. Depending
on early morning convection and any aggressive cold pools, the
baroclinic zone could be shoved south of the CWA by Saturday
afternoon similar to the CMC's depiction. Such a scenario in not
that uncommon here, but until we see enough evidence for this we
continue to favor the front residing in the area all day Saturday.
Highest POPs remain in stock for Saturday night under continued weak
northwest flow with another modest low level jet unfolding. If late
day convection can develop upstream in the upslope regime of eastern
NM, then prospects for a nocturnal MCS and a broader coverage of
precip over the South Plains would be improved.

With the front stalling out south and west of the region on Sunday,
unseasonably cool conditions seem more likely as moist upslope winds
prolong stratus and keep high temperatures a good 15-20 degrees
below normal. Continued flattening of the shallow upper ridge as it
shifts over the region will open the door to more impulses preceding
a trough in the Great Basin, so broad POPs remain in order. This
trough is now progged to shift east more aggressively beginning
Sunday night ahead of deepening and drying southwest flow, so precip
chances were dried out accordingly on Monday and Tuesday while also
raising high temps by several degrees.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

33/93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1139 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

TXZ021>044-121645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1139 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM LAKE ALAN HENRY TO GUTHRIE. HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND
WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>