Special Weather Statement, NWS St. Louis, MO

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
642 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

Ongoing MCS to our north with its eastern section moving thru
northern IL dropping to the south-southeast.  Current indications
are that this should hold together long enough to impact our far
northern CWA and much of the CWA in Illinois during the early to mid
morning hours.  Severe threat should be minimal with this but will
continue to monitor.

Another MCS over in KS also bears watching, with the MCV from this
activity expected to track eastward into our region later this
morning and thru the afternoon. HRRR and our local WRF models
picked up on this feature the best and supports likely PoPs or
greater for much of our region from late morning thru much of the
afternoon as it tracks west to east.

Temperatures will be very conditional on the rain and become
increasingly uncertain with time but should peak in the eastern CWA
around midday or early afternoon with dropping temps with the
increasing clouds and approaching rain, while will be stunted in the
west this morning with some recovery in the mid to late afternoon.
Favored max temps on the cool side of MOS.  Heat index values look
to edge around 100F for many areas near and south of Interstate 70 at
some point today but not enough for an Advisory given what looks to
be the very brief likelihood of the attainment of these heat index
values and uncertainty.

TES

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

Tonight - Thu

Precip assoc with MCV should exit sthrn IL this evng with much
of the overnight prd dry. Subtle short wave embedded in the zonal
flow will move out of the nthrn Plains this aftn and into IA/MN
this evng. This should initiate TSTM dvlpmnt to our NW. This
activity will drop SE overnight and may approach the nthrn FA well
after midnight. The eventual sthrn extent of this activity and
assoc outflow bndry will determine convective trends on Thu since
the area will be largely void of any other forcing mechanisms. Any
activity that does dvlp is expected to be sparse due to a substantial
cap with 700mb temps of +13C to +15C. A dvlpng short wave across
the Dakotas will be our next WX maker for the end of the week.

Thu should be the hottest day of the week. 850mb temps of +22C to
+25C support high temps in the mid 90s to near 100. I think plenty
of BL moisture will help keep temps from getting out of hand and
am expecting highs in the low/mid 90s...though there is the
potential for temps to be a category higher. Regardless...highs in
the 90s and Dps in the mid 70s will produce HIs above 100 across
the entire area and possibly 105+. A headline may very well be
needed.

Thu Night - Fri Night

Any convection that was able to dvlp drng the aftn should fade after
00Z. The aforementioned short wave will track from the Dakotas on
Thu to the wrn Grt Lks Thu night into Fri mrng. This feature will
lift a SFC low from IA Thu night to the Grt Lks by Fri night. A cold
front assoc with the SFC low will drag thru the FA from Thu night
thru Fri. There are timing differences...but the general scenario is
for convection to fire along the front to our N/NW drng the late
aftn and evng and then sink S/SE along with the front or at least
what will become the effective front. Expect this activity to move
into the wrn/nthrn CWA around midnight. Convection should continue
to move SE drng the early mrng and then should slowly fade away
towards 12Z. Front should progress to the I44 corridor in MO and I70
in IL by 18Z before addntl convection dvlps drng the aftn. Front is
expected to clear the far sthrn zones across SE MO Fri evng...tho
precip chances will continue for SE MO due to proximity to the bndry.
SFC high centered across Hudson Bay builds into the region
overnight.

Temps on Fri could be tricky depending on evolution of mrng
convection. Residual cloud cover...outflow bndrys and frontal timing
will play an important roles.

Sat - Sat night

Fri's FROPA will introduce a cooler and drier air mass for the wknd.
Upper heights begin to rise as a ridge progresses E from the Plains.
This will cause the front to stall along the AR/MO border over the
wknd so shtrn zones will continue to have diurnally driven precip
chances. Guidance has come into better agreement depicting what
appears to be an MCV traversing sthrn MO Sat. There is still some
discontinuity on exact track of vort max but it appears to have
shifted S/SW some.

Potential clouds and precip may limit high temps...esp across the
far sthrn CWA on Sat.

Sun -  Tue

Upper ridge will be well established early next week. Sthrly flow
will begin by Sun. This will allow normal summer time conditions to
return as the air mass slowly modifies with limited chances for
diurnally driven convection.

2%

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

First batch of storms from the north edging UIN currently and
ability to edge the STL metro sites looking more doubtful with
western edge eroding as it pushes south. Will need to be monitored
but due to it being in doubt currently, have no mention for this.

Second batch of storms from the west are filling in a bit more of
late and are still on track to move thru COU between 15-18z and
STL metro sites between 17-20z, with UIN again being on the
northern edge.

After this, storm chances look small, small enough to preclude
mention in the TAFs, but indications continue to favor another
storm complex dropping from the northwest at the very end of the
valid period or just beyond.

Otherwise, southerly surface winds and mainly VFR conditions will
prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid period.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
454 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-071000-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-SAINT CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-SAINT CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
SAINT LOUIS MO-SAINT LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-SAINT FRANCOIS MO-SAINTE GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
454 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. THE
GREATEST THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE NEAR 105 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

2%

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1051 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

MOZ041-042-050-051-061630-
BOONE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-CALLAWAY MO-AUDRAIN MO-
1051 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CALLAWAY...NORTHWESTERN
MONTGOMERY...CENTRAL AUDRAIN AND BOONE COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM CDT...

AT 1051 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF MIDWAY TO 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ASHLAND. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLUMBIA...FULTON...MEXICO...CENTRALIA...MONTGOMERY CITY...
HALLSVILLE...AUXVASSE...STURGEON...MARTINSBURG...SHAMROCK...MURRY...
MIDWAY...WILLIAMSBURG...HARRISBURG...KINGDOM CITY...BENTON CITY...
VANDIVER...HATTON AND THOMPSON.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN EXITS 121 AND 155.

THIS ALSO INCLUDES  FINGER LAKES STATE PARK AND JEWELL CEMETERY
HISTORIC SITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3915 9249 3934 9209 3934 9199 3898 9145
      3879 9216 3903 9254
TIME...MOT...LOC 1551Z 244DEG 28KT 3907 9247 3887 9216

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1052 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1051 AM     HAIL             COLUMBIA                38.95N  92.33W
07/06/2016  M0.70 INCH       BOONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WALSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1129 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

MOZ026-027-034-035-042-050-051-060-061715-
RALLS MO-MONTGOMERY MO-MARION MO-CALLAWAY MO-SHELBY MO-WARREN MO-
MONROE MO-AUDRAIN MO-
1129 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONROE...NORTHEASTERN CALLAWAY...
MONTGOMERY...SHELBY...AUDRAIN...WESTERN RALLS...SOUTHWESTERN MARION
AND NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM CDT...

AT 1128 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CLARENCE TO NEAR CHAMOIS. MOVEMENT
WAS EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MEXICO...VANDALIA...MONTGOMERY CITY...MONROE CITY...HERMANN...
SHELBINA...PARIS...WELLSVILLE...SANTA FE...WARREN...AUXVASSE...
CLARENCE...NEW FLORENCE...JONESBURG...PERRY...MADISON...
SHELBYVILLE...LADDONIA...BELLFLOWER AND FARBER.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN EXITS 148 AND 188.

THIS ALSO INCLUDES  DEUTSCHHEIM HISTORIC SITE...UNION COVERED BRIDGE
HISTORIC SITE...GRAHAM CAVE STATE PARK...AND MARK TWAIN LAKE
RECREATIONAL AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3993 9187 3921 9142 3914 9141 3914 9138
      3871 9111 3870 9179 3918 9211 3924 9210
      3924 9215 3948 9231 3995 9229
TIME...MOT...LOC 1628Z 275DEG 22KT 3978 9236 3876 9176

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1154 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MEXICO                  39.17N  91.87W
07/06/2016  M1.10 INCH       AUDRAIN            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            30 MINUTE TOTAL

&&

WALSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1157 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CALEDONIA               37.76N  90.77W
07/06/2016                   WASHINGTON         MO   STORM CHASER

            POWER POLE SNAPPED

&&

WALSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1213 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

ILZ095>097-MOZ019-026-027-034>036-042-051-061800-
BROWN IL-PIKE IL-ADAMS IL-RALLS MO-MONTGOMERY MO-MARION MO-SHELBY MO-
MONROE MO-LEWIS MO-AUDRAIN MO-PIKE MO-
1213 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PIKE...ADAMS AND WESTERN BROWN
COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...PIKE AND NORTHEASTERN MONROE
COUNTIES IN NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...NORTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY
IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN
MISSOURI...NORTHEASTERN AUDRAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...LEWIS...
RALLS AND MARION COUNTIES IN NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI UNTIL 100 PM
CDT...

AT 1212 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR PHILADELPHIA TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF VANDALIA. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
QUINCY...HANNIBAL...BOWLING GREEN...PITTSFIELD...VANDALIA...
PALMYRA...LOUISIANA...MONROE CITY...CANTON...WARREN...BARRY...
GRIGGSVILLE...CAMP POINT...PAYSON...NEW LONDON...MENDON...
LA GRANGE...CLAYTON...PERRY AND GOLDEN.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 172 BETWEEN EXITS 2 AND 19.
 INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN EXITS 4 AND 35.

THIS ALSO INCLUDES  WAKONDA STATE PARK...MARK TWAIN LAKE RECREATIONAL
AREA...AND SILOAM SPRINGS STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 9150 4020 9150 4019 9096 4012 9091
      4011 9092 4010 9090 3965 9062 3906 9154
      3986 9193 4025 9167
TIME...MOT...LOC 1712Z 204DEG 56KT 3987 9171 3922 9142

CVKING