Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS St. Louis, MO

Adams County, IL, Bond County, IL, Brown County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Greene County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Madison County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Pike County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Washington County, IL, City of Saint Louis, MO, Franklin County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Lewis County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Marion County, MO, Pike County, MO, Ralls County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Warren County, MO

627 
WGUS63 KLSX 030952
FFALSX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
452 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

ILZ058-059-064-069-074-079-095>102-MOZ019-027-035-036-052-060>065-
075-031100-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-160803T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-BOND IL-CLINTON IL-WASHINGTON IL-
RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-
MADISON IL-SAINT CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-LEWIS MO-MARION MO-RALLS MO-
PIKE MO-LINCOLN MO-WARREN MO-SAINT CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
SAINT LOUIS MO-SAINT LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-
SAINTE GENEVIEVE MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHESTER...SPARTA...QUINCY...
MOUNT STERLING...PITTSFIELD...ALTON...EDWARDSVILLE...BELLEVILLE...
CAHOKIA...HANNIBAL...BOWLING GREEN...SAINT CHARLES...WASHINGTON...
UNION...SULLIVAN...SAINT LOUIS
452 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

$$

CVKING

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1249 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2016

Will be allowing the flash flood watch to expire at noon as areal
extent of showers and few thunderstorms continues to slowly
decrease as does intensity. Should continue to see some isolated
or scattered showers and thunderstorms into the afternoon and
evening. Will continue to monitor the potential for additional
heavy rainfall later this evening and overnight over eastern
Missouri and southwest Illinois as similar conditions will set up
as they did last night.

Have lowered temperatures today where rain has persisted and
debris cloudiness is expected to keep the sun from raising
temperatures today.

Britt

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2016

Convection has blossomed within the last several hours within the
elongated region of moisture convergence associated with the west
southwest component of the LLJ. The initial activity formed near
Mexico and has since continued to develop/expand and move south-
southeast aided by a decent cold pool, while persistent
convergence and lift has resulted in continuous back-building into
north central MO. Overall the growing MCS has a good elongated structure
aligned with the weak north-northwest cloud layer flow, favoring
training echos/repeat convection. The high moisture content with
PWs of 2+ inches and relatively deep warm cloud depths are
favoring good precipitation efficiency and high rainfall rates
with estimated MRMS rainfall rates of 3+ in/hr. Radar already has
some storm total estimates near 4 inches, thus we could see some
localized totals in the 6-7 inch range to the west/northwest of
St. Louis where the greatest flood threat resides. The current
flash flood watch looks on target. However I may make a few tweeks
to the counties - the eastern extent may be overdone and I will
probably need to expand it a tad west and south. In time this
morning I think the axis of convection will shift towards the MS
River in conjunction with the LLJ becoming increasingly
anticyclonic and the convergence shifting eastward. We will also
have to watch carefully the upstream MCS in southeast Nebraska
which has shown a more southeastward component of motion than
progged and appears to be tracking along the instability gradient.
It could move into north central-northeast MO later this morning
and add another burst of heavy rain. I would expect by midday the
coverage and intensity of showers and storms would have diminished
due to weakening forcing/low level convergence.

Glass

.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Aug 2 2016

There is a lot of uncertainty during this period. The models
continue to be slower and slower decidedly moving the
precipitation threat to the east of the CWA. There is never a
strong signal the warm front and a south-southwest wind shift will
occur until Thursday. There are also suggestions by both the ECMWF
and new 06z NAM that another MCS will impact parts of central and
eastern MO late tonight into Wednesday. This more westward trend
seems to be a common theme the last few nights. Accordingly I have
increased pops to the west. Needless to say the MCS potential adds
another huge caveat to the dangerous heat we have been
anticipating, at least for Wednesday. I think by Thursday the warm
front will in fact finally shift to the east and we will see
fairly widespread dangerous heat with a more south-southwest
component to the low level flow and a prominent thermal ridge.

At this time I will cancel the excessive heat watch for metro St.
Louis region for today, but leave it in effect beginning Wednesday
afternoon into Friday. This is not optimal but I don't have enough
confidence to convert it to an advisory just yet.

The cold front is still on track to push into the area on Friday
and slowly move southward stalling across southern MO and southern
IL by late Saturday evening. Eventually the front will then waver
northward Sunday into Monday keeping a threat of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2016

There will still be some areas of MVFR ceilings through early
afternoon with light showers. VFR and dry conditions are expected
at all of the terminals by late this afternoon and early this
evening. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop later
this evening and overnight at KUIN and the St. Louis area
terminals with MVFR and possible IFR ceilings and visibilities.
These thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Expect mainly dry and VFR conditions through
late evening. Then showers and thunderstorms are expected to move
into the area with MVFR and possible IFR ceilings and visibilities.
These conditions are expected to last into the mid morning hours
before moving out of the terminal. Mainly dry and VFR conditions
are expected from mid-morning and Wednesday afternoon.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for Saint Charles MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint
     Louis MO.

IL...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for Madison IL-Saint Clair IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
1208 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-031130-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-SAINT CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-SAINT CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
SAINT LOUIS MO-SAINT LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-SAINT FRANCOIS MO-SAINTE GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
1208 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY RETURN TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY...AND IS LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST
ANTICIPATED HEAT INDEX VALUES...FROM 105 TO 110 EACH DAY...ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SAINT LOUIS METRO AREA...WHERE AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING AS WELL AS
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 INCHES AND GREATER.

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1016 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 AM     FLOOD            MEXICO                  39.17N  91.87W
08/02/2016                   AUDRAIN            MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BUSINESS HIGHWAY 54 DOWN TO ONE LANE AT THE UNDERPASS
            DUE TO WATER OVER THE ROADWAY.

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1017 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SE MEXICO             39.11N  91.79W
08/02/2016  M3.75 INCH       AUDRAIN            MO   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

WALSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1018 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNW KINGDOM CITY      38.99N  91.96W
08/02/2016  M3.38 INCH       CALLAWAY           MO   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

WALSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1020 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 S HERMANN             38.66N  91.43W
08/02/2016  M5.20 INCH       GASCONADE          MO   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

WALSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1136 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N COLUMBIA            38.98N  92.33W
08/02/2016  M3.61 INCH       BOONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL SINCE MIDNIGHT

&&

WALSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1236 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1234 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PERSHING                38.58N  91.61W
08/02/2016  M3.90 INCH       GASCONADE          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GOSSELIN