Special Weather Statement, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
334 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Upper level pattern shows one high pressure situated west of the
CWA across central Texas and another in the western Atlantic Ocean.
The weakness in between these highs will be a focus region for daily
convective activity. The closer proximity of the ridge to the west
will have some influence of rain chances across the CWA. Increased
subsidence near to the high pressure will reduce coverage closer to
the Atchafalaya Basin vs points farther east. Latest radar imagery
shows this taking place today. Quite a bit of convective activity
has developed over southern Mississippi and is spreading
southwestward. Some cells may move in across the eastern Baton Rouge
Metro area but thinking most will stay east of I-55 corridor. The
HRRR does show a complex moving into BR but think its off spatially
by about 100 miles.  Will have to watch for a couple storms becoming
severe with such high sfc temps which will increase the chances for
downbursts.

Heat advisory remains in effect with heat indicies running 108 to
114 at locations outside of convection. Dewpoints will remain high,
upper 70s to 80 and highs in the lower to mid 90s the next couple
days. The challenge going into Friday and Saturday is timing the
initiation and coverage of convection. Yesterday a complex moved
through early in the morning and limited warming. That didn't happen
until afternoon today. Models will likely continue to struggle with
non-diurnally driven convection. Thus will likely be last minute
decisions on deciding yay or nay for heat advisories.

MEFFER
&&

LONG TERM... The upper level ridge to the west will for all intents
and purposed remain in place situated west of the area throughout
the  weekend. This will keep the local area in a shear zone between
that ridge and the Bermuda ridge. Daily afternoon thunderstorm
chances are thus expected to be around 50 percent. Not expecting
much change in temperatures as well with highs in the low to mid 90s
and lows mainly in the upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
TSRA development from KHDC to KGPT will impact those terminals for a
few more hours. KMSY and KNEW will likely see this activity in an
hour or so as the convection moves southeastward. At the least a
gust front will bring winds up to 25kts as it passes. Other
terminals should remain VFR this afternoon and then all TAF sites
VFR the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Two weak but broad upper level highs located over Texas and off the
east coast of Florida will be strong enough to keep a generally
static pattern over the northern gulf. These two high centers will
eventually merge by the weekend and eventually anchor over the
southeast CONUS.

A broad ridge of sfc high pressure will remain over the coastal
waters through the weekend. This will keep a general southeast wind
direction of 5 to 10 knots in place. The nocturnal lakes/sounds jet
will develop each night producing winds in the 10-15kt range. This
will weaken during the daylight hours to around 5-10kt. Expect this
to occur each night of the fcst. Will keep this out of the fcst
for now.

Otherwise, will have to watch for swell train from what was
Hurricane Earl. Some models show a 3-5 foot jump in waves coming in
tomorrow and others do not. Will have to monitor buoys further
offshore.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  94  75  94 /  20  40  20  40
BTR  77  94  77  95 /  20  40  20  40
ASD  78  94  77  94 /  30  40  30  50
MSY  80  93  80  94 /  30  50  20  50
GPT  78  94  78  94 /  30  40  30  40
PQL  77  93  77  93 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-040-
     046>050-056>072.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1116 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-050430-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND
LOUISIANA OUT 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-
WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-
ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-
UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1116 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TODAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE TO 108 TO 112 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS
BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POORLY
DRAINED AREAS. COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE STRONG...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING STRONG WIND
GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.
WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
454 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

LAZ060-061-042230-
UPPER JEFFERSON-ST. CHARLES-
454 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES AND
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON PARISHES...

AT 453 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER HARAHAN...OR
OVER AVONDALE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARRERO...AVONDALE...METAIRIE...JEFFERSON...HARAHAN...WESTWEGO...
ELMWOOD...ST. ROSE...RIVER RIDGE...WAGGAMAN...ESTELLE...
BRIDGE CITY...AMA...LULING...
DESTREHAN AND NEW ORLEANS ARMSTRONG AIRPORT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 2980 9034 3005 9034 3006 9031 3005 9028
      3005 9026 3004 9025 3003 9020 3002 9014
      2996 9013 2995 9014 2992 9013 2991 9012
      2984 9010
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 321DEG 12KT 2992 9022

AK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
513 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

LAZ039-MSZ070-071-042315-
WASHINGTON-PIKE-WALTHALL-
513 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON
PARISH...SOUTHWESTERN WALTHALL AND CENTRAL PIKE COUNTIES...

AT 512 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MAGNOLIA TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
FRANKLINTON. THE STORMS ARE NEARLY STATIONARY.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MCCOMB...FRANKLINTON...MAGNOLIA...TYLERTOWN AND MCCOMB AIRPORT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3117 9053 3086 9014 3098 8996 3129 9038
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 120DEG 1KT 3118 9039 3096 9008

24/RR

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
522 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE SLIDELL AIRPORT   30.31N 89.80W
08/04/2016                   ST. TAMMANY        LA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREE DOWN AT JAY ST

&&

AK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
522 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

LAZ059-061-065>068-042245-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER JEFFERSON-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-UPPER
TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-
522 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LAFOURCHE...
NORTHEASTERN TERREBONNE AND CENTRAL JEFFERSON PARISHES...

AT 521 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF RACELAND TO 9 MILES
NORTHEAST OF CUT OFF. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOUMA...THIBODAUX...GALLIANO...LAROSE...CUT OFF...LOCKPORT...
GOLDEN MEADOW...MONTEGUT...MATHEWS...SCHRIEVER...GRAY...BAYOU CANE...
RACELAND...CHAUVIN...DES ALLEMANDS AND CHACKBAY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 2963 9093 2989 9069 2974 9036 2969 9035
      2969 9027 2961 9009 2928 9018
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 025DEG 15KT 2980 9065 2959 9020

24/RR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
534 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

LAZ037-050-071-072-042300-
LIVINGSTON-SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-ST. HELENA-
534 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL TANGIPAHOA...
NORTHERN LIVINGSTON AND SOUTHEASTERN ST. HELENA PARISHES...

AT 534 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MONTPELIER...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AMITE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AMITE CITY...LIVINGSTON...INDEPENDENCE...ALBANY AND MONTPELIER.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3045 9053 3052 9088 3070 9085 3071 9085
      3072 9048
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 278DEG 10KT 3062 9071

24/RR