Heat Advisory 7, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
341 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Generally only small changes made to the forecast with this
package. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected each day.
Carrying POPs in the 30 to 50 percent range today with lower
POPs in the west where some influence of the upper ridge can still
be felt. Lower convective coverage in the west will also allow
temperatures to rise a bit higher than areas that see higher
coverage. Expect mid 90s west to lower 90s east. Afternoon heat
index values should top out around 105 most places, which is a few
degrees shy of heat advisory criteria. A few places could briefly
touch the 108 degree threshold, but with scattered convection,
have very little confidence in any specific locations.

Moving into the weekend, rain chances should be on the increase as
the upper ridge shifts westward. Am carrying high end chance to
likely POPs Sunday through the end of the forecast period. The
higher convective coverage should help keep afternoon temperatures
closer to normal in the lower 90s. Overnight lows will continue to
run above normal, in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR conditions expected through 12z Friday. The exception
will be due to TSRA reducing the visibility down to IFR at terminals
mainly south of the interstate 10/12 corridor once again today. Will
use VCTS for terminals located in these areas again. Sites that do
get rain today could have some patchy fog develop overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
The 850mb trough is located roughly along the coast this morning.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to fire along this boundary and
move west along the trough interface. Another round of nocturnal
showers and thunderstorms will move into the coastal waters this
morning and weaken by afternoon. Yet another round will once again
fire and move into the area again tonight and Friday morning. Most
of this activity should stay along and east of the Atchafalaya
River with the majority even east of the Mississippi River over
the next several days.

Thanks to Earl, we will begin to pick up a long period swell by late
tonight and Friday. This should continue through at least Saturday.
An additional 3 to 5 feet of sea can be added to any wind wave
during this period causing a total sea contribution of 4 to 7 feet
Friday and Saturday for open gulf waters. Even though light wind
speeds are expected, advisories may be issued for seas if they reach
the 7 foot height. Winds and seas will be higher in and around sh/ts
for the next several days. With thunderstorms moving through the
area Friday and Saturday, the additional swell combined with ts
wind speeds could cause very dangerous conditions especially to
small craft operators.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  96  74  93  74 /  40  30  50  20
BTR  96  76  93  76 /  40  30  50  20
ASD  95  77  93  76 /  50  40  50  30
MSY  94  79  92  78 /  40  30  50  30
GPT  93  77  93  77 /  50  40  50  40
PQL  91  76  92  76 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Aviation/Marine...17
Rest of Discussion...95/DM

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