Small Craft Advisory 23, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISSCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
412 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...
BUSY DAY AT THE FORECAST OFFICE TODAY AS A HISTORIC RAIN EVENT IS
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HISTORIC RIVER
FLOODING IS ONGOING ON MANY RIVERS ON THE NORTHSHORE WHERE 12 PLUS INCHES
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF TANIGIPAHOA...ST TAMMANY
AND WASHINGTON PARISHES OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT TONIGHT WE SHOULD CATCH A BREAK. LATEST RADAR AND HI RES
MODEL TREND SUGGEST THAT RAINFALL IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST AND
IS COMING TO AN END...FOR NOW. POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
HIGH EVENTHOUGH A BREAK IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. I EXPECT FINAL ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PESKY UPPER LOW FINALLY MAKES ITS
FINAL PUSH NORTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR
TWO WITH THE FINAL PUSH TOMORROW. THE SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE WEST
COAST THAT WILL SERVE AS THE KICKER TO THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COMPARATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH IN OUR AREA BUT AREAS TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA COULD SEE
ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN. WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA
FOR SUNDAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE HELD TO THE 70 TO
75 RANGE...SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO RISE TO
NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK. 13MH

.LONG TERM...
BEYOND SUNDAY NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST AS SPRING
ARRIVES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 80S FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NO RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS STILL INDICATE
THE NEXT CHANCE OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL LOOKS TO MOVE IN AROUND THE
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. HAVE WENT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH IN THE LONG
RANGE AND KEEP POPS IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL BE UNSTABLE AND COULD BOUNCE
BETWEEN IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS BUT THEY HAVE RELAXED SOME AND THAT HAS ALLOWED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND TO BE REPLACED WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
FOR THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS. THE LOW WILL KICK TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY INCREASE SOME BUT THAT WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS CONDITIONS CALM DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....ORANGE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...COASTAL FLOODING
             FLASH FLOODING
             MAJOR RIVER FLOODING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  63  74  58  77 /  90  90  30  10
BTR  63  75  60  79 /  60  70  20  10
ASD  64  74  61  78 /  90  90  30  10
MSY  65  74  63  78 /  60  80  20  10
GPT  64  72  62  75 /  90  90  40  10
PQL  62  71  62  76 /  90  90  40  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR LAZ057-
     060>064-066>070.

     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR LAZ040-049-050-
     058-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR MSZ081-082.

     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR MSZ080.

GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
500 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-121400-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND
LOUISIANA OUT 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-
WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-
ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-
UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
500 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR
FLOOD REPORTING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
353 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     FLOOD            COVINGTON               30.48N 90.11W
03/11/2016                   ST. TAMMANY        LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HWY 437 NORTH OF RIVER ROAD CLOSED DUE TO RIVER FLOODING
            ON THE BOGUE FALAYA.

&&

CBANNAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
506 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N COVINGTON           30.54N 90.11W
03/11/2016                   ST. TAMMANY        LA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SHERIFFS OFFICE AND WILDLIFE AND FISHERIES CONDUCTED THE
            RESCUE OPERATIONS OF 86 KIDS AND A NUMBER COUSELORS FROM
            THE CAMP ABBEY RETREAT CENTER.

&&

CBANNAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
521 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LIVINGSTON              30.50N 90.75W
03/11/2016  M10.25 INCH      LIVINGSTON         LA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            10.25 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED BY THE LIVINGSTON CO-OP
            OBSERVER

&&

CBANNAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
811 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     FLOOD            ABITA SPRINGS           30.48N 90.03W
03/11/2016                   ST. TAMMANY        LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HWY 435 BY HILLCREST HAS BEEN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

CBANNAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
814 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     FLOOD            FOLSOM                  30.63N 90.20W
03/11/2016                   ST. TAMMANY        LA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ESTIMATES FROM ST TAMMANY FIRE DISTRIC 5 OF 100 PEOPLE
            RESCUED FROM PARK LANE AND 50-60 FROM ALBERT THOMPSON
            THROUGH THE DAY. REPORT RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

CBANNAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
850 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     FLOOD            3 NNE COVINGTON         30.52N 90.09W
03/11/2016                   ST. TAMMANY        LA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WATER BEGINNING TO ENTER HOMES IN MAGNOLIA GARDENS IN
            COVINGTON. RELATED TO BOGUE FALAYA RIVER.

&&

CBANNAN