River Flood Warning 34, NWS New Orleans, LA

534 
WGUS84 KLIX 110257
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
857 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...
 
  Wolf River Above Gulfport affecting Harrison County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC047-120857-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0034.160312T0330Z-160314T1400Z/
/GLFM6.1.ER.160312T0330Z.160312T0600Z.160314T0800Z.NO/
857 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

...Flood Warning extended until Monday morning...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Wolf River Above Gulfport.
* from Friday evening to Monday morning.
* At  4:00 PM Thursday the stage was 3.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow late evening and 
  continue to rise to near 8.5 feet by early Saturday morning.the 
  river will fall below flood stage by Monday morning.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Bells Ferry Road will begin to flood. There 
  will be water over the access road just upstream of the bridge and 
  the road will become impassable very quickly.

&&

LAT...LON 3042 8919 3041 8922 3037 8922 3039 8917




$$

059 
WGUS84 KLIX 111501
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
901 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...
 
  Wolf River Above Gulfport affecting Harrison County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local TV and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC047-122101-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0034.160312T1424Z-160315T1600Z/
/GLFM6.1.ER.160312T1424Z.160313T2300Z.160315T1000Z.NO/
901 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Wolf River Above Gulfport.
* from Saturday morning to Tuesday morning.
* At 8:00 AM Friday the stage was 4.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by 
  tomorrow morning and continue to rise to near 11.0 feet by 
  Sunday evening. The river is then expected to fall back below\
  flood stage by Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Bells Ferry Road will be closed within a 
  mile of the bridge as the road will be covered by swift moving 
  river current.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Bells Ferry Road will be impassable with deep
  water on the east bridge approach.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Bells Ferry Road will begin to flood. There 
  will be water over the access road just upstream of the bridge and 
  the road will become impassable very quickly.

&&

LAT...LON 3042 8919 3041 8922 3037 8922 3039 8917

$$

98/SO

287 
WGUS84 KLIX 120314
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
914 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...
 
  Wolf River Above Gulfport affecting Harrison County 
  
  Biloxi River Near Lyman affecting Harrison County 
  
  Tchoutacabouffa River Above D'Iberville affecting Harrison County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC047-130914-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0034.160312T2120Z-160315T0236Z/
/GLFM6.1.ER.160312T2120Z.160313T1700Z.160314T2036Z.NO/
914 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Wolf River Above Gulfport.
* from Saturday afternoon to Monday evening.
* At  7:00 PM Friday the stage was 4.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 9.5 feet by Sunday early afternoon.the 
  river will fall below flood stage by Monday afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Bells Ferry Road will be impassable with deep
  water on the east bridge approach.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Bells Ferry Road will begin to flood. There 
  will be water over the access road just upstream of the bridge and 
  the road will become impassable very quickly.

&&

LAT...LON 3042 8919 3041 8922 3037 8922 3039 8917




$$

MSC047-130913-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0049.160312T0312Z-160314T0944Z/
/LYMM6.1.ER.160311T2237Z.160313T0000Z.160314T0344Z.NO/
914 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Biloxi River Near Lyman.
* from this evening to late Sunday night.
* At  7:00 PM Friday the stage was 13.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.5 feet by 
  tomorrow evening. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday 
  before midnight.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...At 14 feet homes on lower Fisherman Trail 
  will begin to flood and lower River Road will be impassable. 
  Driving on Loraine Road will be hazardous due to the high water.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Loraine Road will begin to flood at 13 feet 
  making driving hazardous. River Road near Three Rivers Road bridge 
  will begin to flood.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...River Road near Three Rivers Road bridge 
  will begin to flood.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...The river will be bankfull at the Three 
  Rivers Road bridge.

&&

LAT...LON 3055 8912 3055 8917 3048 8914 3048 8909




$$

MSC047-130913-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0050.160312T0808Z-160313T1030Z/
/DIBM6.1.ER.160312T0808Z.160312T1800Z.160313T0430Z.NO/
914 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tchoutacabouffa River Above D'Iberville.
* from late tonight to late Saturday night.
* At  8:30 PM Friday the stage was 6.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by after midnight tomorrow and 
  continue to rise to near 9.5 feet by tomorrow early afternoon.the 
  river will fall below flood stage by tomorrow late evening.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Roads along the river will be impassable. A 
  few homes will be isolated.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...The banks will overflow a short distance 
  upstream and downstream of Lamey Bridge.

&&

LAT...LON 3067 8896 3067 8903 3045 8892 3046 8889




$$

043 
WGUS84 KLIX 121848
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
1248 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...
 
The Wolf River Above Gulfport affecting Harrison County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC047-140048-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0034.160312T2034Z-160315T0000Z/
/GLFM6.1.ER.160312T2034Z.160313T1700Z.160314T1800Z.NO/
1248 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Wolf River Above Gulfport.
* until Monday evening.
* At 6:00 AM Saturday the stage was 6.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by this 
  afternoon and then continue to rise until cresting at around 9.5 
  feet by tomorrow early afternoon.  The river is expected to fall 
  below flood stage by Monday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Bells Ferry Road will be impassable with deep
  water on the east bridge approach.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Bells Ferry Road will begin to flood. There 
  will be water over the access road just upstream of the bridge and 
  the road will become impassable very quickly.

&&

LAT...LON 3042 8919 3041 8922 3037 8922 3039 8917




$$

339 
WGUS84 KLIX 130253
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
853 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...
 
  Wolf River Above Gulfport affecting Harrison County 

  Biloxi River Near Lyman affecting Harrison County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC047-140853-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-160315T0300Z/
/GLFM6.1.ER.160313T0512Z.160314T0000Z.160314T2100Z.NO/
853 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

...Flood Warning extended until Monday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for the Wolf River Above Gulfport.
* until Monday evening.
* At  8:00 PM Saturday the stage was 7.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tonight and continue to rise 
  to near 9.5 feet by tomorrow evening.the river will fall below 
  flood stage by Monday afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Bells Ferry Road will be impassable with deep
  water on the east bridge approach.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Bells Ferry Road will begin to flood. There 
  will be water over the access road just upstream of the bridge and 
  the road will become impassable very quickly.

&&

LAT...LON 3042 8919 3041 8922 3037 8922 3039 8917




$$

MSC047-130855-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-160313T0855Z/
/LYMM6.1.ER.160311T2237Z.160312T2000Z.160313T0255Z.NO/
853 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

The Flood Warning continues for the Biloxi River Near Lyman.
* until late tonight.
* At  8:00 PM Saturday the stage was 12.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  this evening.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...River Road near Three Rivers Road bridge 
  will begin to flood.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...The river will be bankfull at the Three 
  Rivers Road bridge.

&&

LAT...LON 3055 8912 3055 8917 3048 8914 3048 8909




$$

153 
WGUS84 KLIX 131513
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
1013 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...
 
  Wolf River Above Gulfport affecting Harrison County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC047-142113-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-160315T0815Z/
/GLFM6.1.ER.000000T0000Z.160314T0600Z.160315T0215Z.NO/
1013 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

...Flood Warning extended until late Monday night...The Flood Warning
continues for
  The Wolf River Above Gulfport.
* until late Monday night.
* At  6:00 AM Sunday the stage was 8.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 9.0 feet late tonight 
  around midnight. The river will fall below flood stage Monday evening.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Bells Ferry Road will be impassable with deep
  water on the east bridge approach.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Bells Ferry Road will begin to flood. There 
  will be water over the access road just upstream of the bridge and 
  the road will become impassable very quickly.

&&

LAT...LON 3042 8919 3041 8922 3037 8922 3039 8917

$$

126 
WGUS84 KLIX 140221
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
921 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...
 
  Wolf River Above Gulfport affecting Harrison County 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC047-150700-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-160315T0700Z/
/GLFM6.1.ER.000000T0000Z.160314T0600Z.160315T0100Z.NO/
921 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

The Flood Warning continues for the Wolf River Above Gulfport.
* until late Monday night.
* At 9:15 PM Sunday the river was estimated to be near crest.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is estimated to be cresting and is expected to 
  begin falling later tonight.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Bells Ferry Road will begin to flood. There 
  will be water over the access road just upstream of the bridge and 
  the road will become impassable very quickly.

&&

LAT...LON 3042 8919 3041 8922 3037 8922 3039 8917




$$

911 
WGUS84 KLIX 141513
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
1013 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...
 
  Wolf River Above Gulfport affecting Harrison County 
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC047-151000-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-160315T1000Z/
/GLFM6.1.ER.000000T0000Z.160314T1800Z.160315T0400Z.NO/
1013 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016

...Flood Warning extended until late tonight...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Wolf River Above Gulfport.
* until late tonight.
* At 6:00 AM Monday the stage was 8.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to rising to near 8.8 feet this
  afternoon   and then begin falling.  The river will fall below flood
  stage by   late tonight. 
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Bells Ferry Road will begin to flood. There 
  will be water over the access road just upstream of the bridge and 
  the road will become impassable very quickly.

&&

LAT...LON 3042 8919 3041 8922 3037 8922 3039 8917




$$

317 
WGUS84 KLIX 150223
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
923 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...
 
The Wolf River Above Gulfport affecting Harrison County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC047-150700-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-160315T0700Z/
/GLFM6.1.ER.000000T0000Z.160314T1900Z.160315T0100Z.NO/
923 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Wolf River Above Gulfport.
* until late tonight.
* At 8:00 PM Monday the stage was 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river has already crested and is expected to fall 
  below flood stage by around 11 pm tonight.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Bells Ferry Road will begin to flood. There 
  will be water over the access road just upstream of the bridge and 
  the road will become impassable very quickly.

&&

LAT...LON 3042 8919 3041 8922 3037 8922 3039 8917




$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
746 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN WITH A RECORD
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE FOR THIS DATE/TIME OF 1.76 INCHES. THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BEING HELPED BY AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET
WITH A 925 MB WIND OF 52 KNOTS AND A 850 MB WIND OF 49 KNOTS
/BOTH RECORD VALUES FOR THIS DATE/TIME/. THIS IS PRIMING THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

WHILE THE LOWER LEVELS ARE MOIST...THERE IS A QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THIS HAS LED TO A DOWNDRAFT CAPE
VALUE OF 925 J/KG...WHICH IF ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CAN ENTRAIN THOSE LOW LEVEL WINDS INTO DOWNDRAFTS WOULD
RESULT IN SEVERE WIND GUSTS REACHING THE SURFACE. IF WE GET
MIXING UP TO 925MB *OUTSIDE* OF RAIN/CONVECTION...WHICH ISN'T OUT
OF THE QUESTION...WE COULD GET 50 KNOTS GUSTS MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS WELL. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXISTS WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
NEAR THE SURFACE ROTATING AROUND TO BLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THE
UPPER LEVELS. WINDS INCREASE FROM ABOUT 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO
50 KNOTS AT 925MB AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS HAS YIELDED VERY
IMPRESSIVE 0-1KM AND 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 500 M2/S2. WHILE A FEW
TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE...LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW AND MIDLEVELS
ARE NOT STEEP AND THERE IS A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING OR FORCING
MECHANISM. THIS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE AGAINST A LARGER TORNADO
THREAT.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT REACHING A HEIGHT OF 21.1 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND AFTER ASCENDING FOR 97 MINUTES. THE BALLOON
BURST NEAR CARNES 50 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016/

SHORT TERM...

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THINKING CONCERNS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINS TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. ALL
OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG FORCING AND HIGH MEAN W
VALUES OF 14 TO 15 G/KG IN PLACE FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE DURATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTING THE REGION BEGINNING
LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THINKING HAS OCCURRED FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW. TODAY...THE HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR OVER
THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
SHOULD THEN SET UP FOR TONIGHT GENERALLY BETWEEN THE ATCHAFALAYA
AND PEARL RIVERS. THIS BAND OF RAIN SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD IMPACT AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
55...BRINGING RAIN TOTALS OT 7 TO 10 INCHES. FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
I-55 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING
METRO NEW ORLEANS...HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 8 INCHES COULD OCCUR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...THERE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE
A SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO THE STRONG WIND SHEAR
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WIND SHEAR WILL BE DRIVEN BY A
STRONG 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET PARKED OVER THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...TOTAL SHEAR WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS AND HELICITY
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 300 M2/S2 THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONE NEGATIVE
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND
OVERALL LOWER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE HIGHLY
SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE. GIVEN THE LACK OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRY TO DEVELOP TODAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AND THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH
SUBSTANTIALLY.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT IN THINKING FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIVING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS TO LIFT OUT OF MEXICO SLOWER THAN
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...A HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIRMASS
AND STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
AREAS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE FROM METRO NEW ORLEANS
AND THE NORTHSHORE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
OVER 6 INCHES COULD IMPACT METRO NEW ORLEANS AND NORTHSHORE. THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST COULD EASILY SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN AS WELL
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA COULD VARY FROM 7 TO 10 INCHES FOR THE
BATON ROUGE AREA AND MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST TO A BULLSEYE OF 10
TO 14 INCHES FOR METRO NEW ORLEANS AND THE NORTHSHORE BY THE TIME
THE EVENT IS OVER. ALL OF THESE TOTALS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN BAND DEVELOPS...AND IF MULTIPLE AREAS
OF HEAVIER RAIN TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATION. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
ISSUES COULD ARISE WITH THIS EVENT GIVEN THE HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS
EXPECTED. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...OVERNIGHTS LOWS WILL ONLY
COOL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER DUE TO THE EXPECTED
RAINS...AND ONLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...

ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
FINALLY PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR DRIER AIR AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO ADVECT IN.
RAINFALL SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SKIES CLEARING AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT NO REAL IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND ONLY EXPECT TO SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS
AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS COMBINED
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES COULD FURTHER WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MONDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS AND THE FORMATION OF A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARMING
FURTHER INTO THE MIDDLE 80S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN
TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...AS A BROAD AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION OVERSPREAD THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN FORCING ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY...AND THIS COULD SERVE AS FOCUS FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA...OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RAIN COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH HEAVIER RAIN BANDS STARTING TO
COME IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CEILINGS...BUT PERIODS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. EXPECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE NORTHERN
GULF WATER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
WHICH WILL YIELD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
AREAS. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
THRESHOLDS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS AND SEAS...COASTAL FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER LATER TODAY...LOOKS LIKE
WARNING CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. HOWEVER...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT
WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING AT RED RIVER LANDING AND MONITORING FOR HEAVY
             RAIN THREAT THROUGH SATURDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  67  71  64 / 100 100 100  90
BTR  76  68  72  64 / 100 100 100  90
ASD  75  68  71  66 /  80 100 100 100
MSY  76  68  71  66 /  90 100 100 100
GPT  74  68  71  67 /  70  80 100 100
PQL  74  67  72  66 /  60  70  80  80

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ040-058>070-072.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ040-
     049-050-057-058-060>064-066>070-072.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ080>082.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     MSZ080>082.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
554 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-110000-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND
LOUISIANA OUT 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-
WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-
ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-
UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
554 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN FOR WATERS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WILL INCLUDE ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 AND 12 CORRIDOR. SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL
LOCATIONS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO THE
MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA STATE LINE. THESE LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE TIDES UP TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WITH
TIDES POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 3 TO 3.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY
HANCOCK COUNTY AND THE NORTHSHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS HEAVY RAINFALL AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO
11 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 13 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY STARTING TODAY MAINLY FOR
FLOOD REPORTING.