River Flood Warning 39, NWS New Orleans, LA

917 
WGUS84 KLIX 110420
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
1020 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...
 
  West Hobolochitto Creek Near McNeill affecting Pearl River County 
  
  East Hobolochitto Creek Near Caesar affecting Pearl River County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC109-121020-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0039.160312T0350Z-160314T1530Z/
/MNLM6.2.ER.160312T0350Z.160313T0000Z.160314T0930Z.NO/
1020 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The West Hobolochitto Creek Near McNeill.
* from Friday evening to Monday morning.
* At  9:45 PM Thursday the stage was 6.7 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow late evening and 
  continue to rise to near 19.5 feet by Saturday evening.the river 
  will fall below flood stage by Monday morning.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Some roads in the county inundated but 
  passable. Homes in Westchester Subdivision, Picayune will be 
  threatened. Water over a few roads in the city of Picayune will 
  cause traffic problems. School bus traffic may need alternate 
  routes. Beech Street and Westchester Subdivision below the 
  confluence of the east and west branches will be subject to 
  flooding in low places.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Some secondary roads near the stream north 
  of Picayune will be inundated. Beech Street and Westchester 
  Subdivision below the confluence of the east and west branches will
  be subject to flooding in low places.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Minor agricultural and forestry flooding 
  will develop in rural areas.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Bank full with minor over bank flow will 
  occur at low spots just below gage.

&&

LAT...LON 3066 8959 3080 8961 3079 8966 3071 8968




$$

MSC109-121020-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0040.160312T0843Z-160313T2351Z/
/CREM6.2.ER.160312T0843Z.160313T0000Z.160313T1751Z.NO/
1020 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The East Hobolochitto Creek Near Caesar.
* from late Friday night to Sunday evening.
* At  9:45 PM Thursday the stage was 4.9 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early Saturday morning and 
  continue to rise to near 17.0 feet by Saturday evening.the river 
  will fall below flood stage by Sunday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Moderate flooding in areas near the stream 
  in Picayune. Water will be in garages of several homes between MS 
  Highway 43 and Beech Street bridge. Northwood Drive will be 
  impassable with some homes flooded.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Water over a few roads in the city of 
  Picayune will cause traffic problems. School bus traffic may need 
  alternate routes. A few homes on Northwood Drive will be 
  threatened. Beech Street and Westchester Subdivision below the 
  confluence of the east and west branches is subject to flooding in 
  low places.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Water will pool on isolated low areas of 
  unimproved roads near the creek. Minor overflow will occur in 
  agricultural areas near stream.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Bankfull at gage. Some minor overflow will 
  occur in flood plain downstream of gage.

&&

LAT...LON 3082 8951 3082 8960 3053 8971 3049 8959




$$

090 
WGUS44 KLIX 111212
FLWLIX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
612 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

...Forecast Flooding Changed from Moderate to Major Severity for the 
following rivers in Mississippi...

  West Hobolochitto Creek Near McNeill affecting Pearl River County
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC109-121812-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0039.160311T1402Z-160314T1128Z/
/MNLM6.3.ER.160311T1402Z.160312T1200Z.160314T0528Z.NO/
612 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

...Forecast flooding increased from Moderate to Major severity...
The Flood Warning continues for 
 The West Hobolochitto Creek Near McNeill.
* until Monday morning.
* At 5:45 AM Friday the stage was 12.3 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this morning and continue to 
  rise to near 22.0 feet by tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...North Beech Road and Palestine Road in 
  Picayune will be impassable. Several homes will be flooded in 
  vicinity of the stream. Flooding threatens structures along MS 
  Highway 43 near the bridge and fills culverts and ditches along 
  bridge approach.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Some roads in the county inundated but 
  passable. Homes in Westchester Subdivision, Picayune will be 
  threatened. Water over a few roads in the city of Picayune will 
  cause traffic problems. School bus traffic may need alternate 
  routes. Beech Street and Westchester Subdivision below the 
  confluence of the east and west branches will be subject to 
  flooding in low places.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Some secondary roads near the stream north 
  of Picayune will be inundated. Beech Street and Westchester 
  Subdivision below the confluence of the east and west branches will
  be subject to flooding in low places.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Minor agricultural and forestry flooding 
  will develop in rural areas.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3066 8959 3080 8961 3079 8966 3071 8968

&&

LAT...LON 3066 8959 3080 8961 3079 8966 3071 8968

$$

561 
WGUS84 KLIX 120040
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
640 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...
 
  West Hobolochitto Creek Near McNeill affecting Pearl River County 
  
  East Hobolochitto Creek Near Caesar affecting Pearl River County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC109-130640-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-160315T0636Z/
/MNLM6.3.ER.000000T0000Z.160313T1700Z.160315T0036Z.NO/
640 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

...Flood Warning extended until late Monday night...The Flood Warning
continues for
  
  The West Hobolochitto Creek Near McNeill.
* until late Monday night.
* At  5:45 PM Friday the stage was 19.7 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 22.0 feet by 
  Sunday early afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Monday evening.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...North Beech Road and Palestine Road in 
  Picayune will be impassable. Several homes will be flooded in 
  vicinity of the stream. Flooding threatens structures along MS 
  Highway 43 near the bridge and fills culverts and ditches along 
  bridge approach.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Some roads in the county inundated but 
  passable. Homes in Westchester Subdivision, Picayune will be 
  threatened. Water over a few roads in the city of Picayune will 
  cause traffic problems. School bus traffic may need alternate 
  routes. Beech Street and Westchester Subdivision below the 
  confluence of the east and west branches will be subject to 
  flooding in low places.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Some secondary roads near the stream north 
  of Picayune will be inundated. Beech Street and Westchester 
  Subdivision below the confluence of the east and west branches will
  be subject to flooding in low places.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Minor agricultural and forestry flooding 
  will develop in rural areas.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Bank full with minor over bank flow will 
  occur at low spots just below gage.


&&

LAT...LON 3066 8959 3080 8961 3079 8966 3071 8968




$$

MSC109-130639-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0040.160312T1800Z-160313T2300Z/
/CREM6.1.ER.160312T1800Z.160313T0600Z.160313T1700Z.NO/
640 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The East Hobolochitto Creek Near Caesar.
* from Saturday afternoon to Sunday evening.
* At  5:45 PM Friday the stage was 10.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 15.5 feet by early Sunday morning.the 
  river will fall below flood stage by Sunday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Moderate flooding in areas near the stream 
  in Picayune. Water will be in garages of several homes between MS 
  Highway 43 and Beech Street bridge. Northwood Drive will be 
  impassable with some homes flooded.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Water over a few roads in the city of 
  Picayune will cause traffic problems. School bus traffic may need 
  alternate routes. A few homes on Northwood Drive will be 
  threatened. Beech Street and Westchester Subdivision below the 
  confluence of the east and west branches is subject to flooding in 
  low places.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Water will pool on isolated low areas of 
  unimproved roads near the creek. Minor overflow will occur in 
  agricultural areas near stream.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Bankfull at gage. Some minor overflow will 
  occur in flood plain downstream of gage.

&&

LAT...LON 3082 8951 3082 8960 3053 8971 3049 8959




$$

900 
WGUS84 KLIX 120656
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
1256 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...
 
  West Hobolochitto Creek Near McNeill affecting Pearl River County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC109-131256-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-160315T1215Z/
/MNLM6.3.ER.000000T0000Z.160313T1100Z.160315T0615Z.NO/
1256 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The West Hobolochitto Creek Near McNeill.
* Until Tuesday morning.
* At 12:45 AM Saturday the stage was 21.4 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to continue rising to near 
  22.0 feet by tomorrow morning. 
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...North Beech Road and Palestine Road in 
  Picayune will be impassable. Several homes will be flooded in 
  vicinity of the stream. Flooding threatens structures along MS 
  Highway 43 near the bridge and fills culverts and ditches along 
  bridge approach.

&&

LAT...LON 3066 8959 3080 8961 3079 8966 3071 8968

$$

98/SO

384 
WGUS84 KLIX 121135
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
535 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  West Hobolochitto Creek Near McNeill affecting Pearl River County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC109-131735-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-160315T1215Z/
/MNLM6.3.ER.000000T0000Z.160313T0000Z.160315T0615Z.NO/
535 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The West Hobolochitto Creek Near McNeill.
* Until Tuesday morning.
* At 4:45 AM Saturday the stage was 22.4 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to continue rising to near 
  23.0 feet by after midnight tomorrow. 
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...North Beech Road and Palestine Road in 
  Picayune will be impassable. Several homes will be flooded in 
  vicinity of the stream. Flooding threatens structures along MS 
  Highway 43 near the bridge and fills culverts and ditches along 
  bridge approach.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Some roads in the county inundated but 
  passable. Homes in Westchester Subdivision, Picayune will be 
  threatened. Water over a few roads in the city of Picayune will 
  cause traffic problems. School bus traffic may need alternate 
  routes. Beech Street and Westchester Subdivision below the 
  confluence of the east and west branches will be subject to 
  flooding in low places.

&&

LAT...LON 3066 8959 3080 8961 3079 8966 3071 8968

$$

98/SO

235 
WGUS84 KLIX 121837
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
1237 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...
 
The West Hobolochitto Creek Near McNeill affecting Pearl River County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC109-140037-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-160315T2356Z/
/MNLM6.3.ER.000000T0000Z.160313T0600Z.160315T1756Z.NO/
1237 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday evening...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The West Hobolochitto Creek Near McNeill.
* until Tuesday evening.
* At 11:45 AM Saturday the stage was 22.3 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to continue rising until cresting
  at around 22.7 feet by Sunday morning. The river is expected to fall
  below flood stage Tuesday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...North Beech Road and Palestine Road in 
  Picayune will be impassable. Several homes will be flooded in 
  vicinity of the stream. Flooding threatens structures along MS 
  Highway 43 near the bridge and fills culverts and ditches along 
  bridge approach.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Some roads in the county inundated but 
  passable. Homes in Westchester Subdivision, Picayune will be 
  threatened. Water over a few roads in the city of Picayune will 
  cause traffic problems. School bus traffic may need alternate 
  routes. Beech Street and Westchester Subdivision below the 
  confluence of the east and west branches will be subject to 
  flooding in low places.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Some secondary roads near the stream north 
  of Picayune will be inundated. Beech Street and Westchester 
  Subdivision below the confluence of the east and west branches will
  be subject to flooding in low places.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Minor agricultural and forestry flooding 
  will develop in rural areas.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Bank full with minor over bank flow will 
  occur at low spots just below gage.


&&

LAT...LON 3066 8959 3080 8961 3079 8966 3071 8968




$$

666 
WGUS84 KLIX 131556
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
1056 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...
 
The West Hobolochitto Creek Near McNeill affecting Pearl River County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC109-141736-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-160314T1736Z/
/MNLM6.3.ER.000000T0000Z.160312T1915Z.160314T1136Z.NO/
1056 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The West Hobolochitto Creek Near McNeill.
* until Monday afternoon.
* At 9:45 AM Sunday the stage was 19.4 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river has already crested and is expected to
  fall below flood stage by Monday morning.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...North Beech Road and Palestine Road in 
  Picayune will be impassable. Several homes will be flooded in 
  vicinity of the stream. Flooding threatens structures along MS 
  Highway 43 near the bridge and fills culverts and ditches along 
  bridge approach.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Some roads in the county inundated but 
  passable. Homes in Westchester Subdivision, Picayune will be 
  threatened. Water over a few roads in the city of Picayune will 
  cause traffic problems. School bus traffic may need alternate 
  routes. Beech Street and Westchester Subdivision below the 
  confluence of the east and west branches will be subject to 
  flooding in low places.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Some secondary roads near the stream north 
  of Picayune will be inundated. Beech Street and Westchester 
  Subdivision below the confluence of the east and west branches will
  be subject to flooding in low places.
.


&&

LAT...LON 3066 8959 3080 8961 3079 8966 3071 8968




$$

085 
WGUS44 KLIX 140200
FLWLIX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
900 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

...Observed Flooding Changed from Major to Minor Severity for the 
following rivers in Mississippi...

...Forecast Flooding Changed from Major to Moderate Severity for the 
following rivers in Mississippi...

West Hobolochitto Creek Near McNeill affecting Pearl River County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC109-142320-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-160314T2320Z/
/MNLM6.3.ER.000000T0000Z.160312T1915Z.160314T1720Z.NO/
900 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

The Flood Warning continues for the West Hobolochitto Creek Near McNeill.
* until Monday evening.
* At  8:45 PM Sunday the stage was 17.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Some roads in the county inundated but 
  passable. Homes in Westchester Subdivision, Picayune will be 
  threatened. Water over a few roads in the city of Picayune will 
  cause traffic problems. School bus traffic may need alternate 
  routes. Beech Street and Westchester Subdivision below the 
  confluence of the east and west branches will be subject to 
  flooding in low places.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Some secondary roads near the stream north 
  of Picayune will be inundated. Beech Street and Westchester 
  Subdivision below the confluence of the east and west branches will
  be subject to flooding in low places.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Minor agricultural and forestry flooding 
  will develop in rural areas.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Bank full with minor over bank flow will 
  occur at low spots just below gage.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3066 8959 3080 8961 3079 8966 3071 8968

&&

LAT...LON 3066 8959 3080 8961 3079 8966 3071 8968




$$

681 
WGUS84 KLIX 141107
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
607 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...
 
  West Hobolochitto Creek Near McNeill affecting Pearl River County
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC109-141137-
/O.CAN.KLIX.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-160314T2320Z/
/MNLM6.3.ER.000000T0000Z.160312T1915Z.160314T0904Z.NO/
607 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The West Hobolochitto Creek Near McNeill.
* At  5:45 AM Monday the stage was 14.4 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at  4:04 AM Monday.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 9.7 feet by tomorrow 
  morning.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Some secondary roads near the stream north 
  of Picayune will be inundated. Beech Street and Westchester 
  Subdivision below the confluence of the east and west branches will
  be subject to flooding in low places.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Minor agricultural and forestry flooding 
  will develop in rural areas.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Bank full with minor over bank flow will 
  occur at low spots just below gage.

&&

LAT...LON 3066 8959 3080 8961 3079 8966 3071 8968

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
746 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN WITH A RECORD
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE FOR THIS DATE/TIME OF 1.76 INCHES. THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BEING HELPED BY AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET
WITH A 925 MB WIND OF 52 KNOTS AND A 850 MB WIND OF 49 KNOTS
/BOTH RECORD VALUES FOR THIS DATE/TIME/. THIS IS PRIMING THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

WHILE THE LOWER LEVELS ARE MOIST...THERE IS A QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THIS HAS LED TO A DOWNDRAFT CAPE
VALUE OF 925 J/KG...WHICH IF ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CAN ENTRAIN THOSE LOW LEVEL WINDS INTO DOWNDRAFTS WOULD
RESULT IN SEVERE WIND GUSTS REACHING THE SURFACE. IF WE GET
MIXING UP TO 925MB *OUTSIDE* OF RAIN/CONVECTION...WHICH ISN'T OUT
OF THE QUESTION...WE COULD GET 50 KNOTS GUSTS MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS WELL. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXISTS WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
NEAR THE SURFACE ROTATING AROUND TO BLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THE
UPPER LEVELS. WINDS INCREASE FROM ABOUT 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE TO
50 KNOTS AT 925MB AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS HAS YIELDED VERY
IMPRESSIVE 0-1KM AND 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 500 M2/S2. WHILE A FEW
TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE...LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW AND MIDLEVELS
ARE NOT STEEP AND THERE IS A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING OR FORCING
MECHANISM. THIS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE AGAINST A LARGER TORNADO
THREAT.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT REACHING A HEIGHT OF 21.1 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND AFTER ASCENDING FOR 97 MINUTES. THE BALLOON
BURST NEAR CARNES 50 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016/

SHORT TERM...

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THINKING CONCERNS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINS TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. ALL
OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG FORCING AND HIGH MEAN W
VALUES OF 14 TO 15 G/KG IN PLACE FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE DURATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTING THE REGION BEGINNING
LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THINKING HAS OCCURRED FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW. TODAY...THE HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR OVER
THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
SHOULD THEN SET UP FOR TONIGHT GENERALLY BETWEEN THE ATCHAFALAYA
AND PEARL RIVERS. THIS BAND OF RAIN SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD IMPACT AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
55...BRINGING RAIN TOTALS OT 7 TO 10 INCHES. FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
I-55 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING
METRO NEW ORLEANS...HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 8 INCHES COULD OCCUR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...THERE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE
A SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO THE STRONG WIND SHEAR
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WIND SHEAR WILL BE DRIVEN BY A
STRONG 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET PARKED OVER THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...TOTAL SHEAR WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS AND HELICITY
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 300 M2/S2 THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONE NEGATIVE
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND
OVERALL LOWER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE HIGHLY
SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE. GIVEN THE LACK OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRY TO DEVELOP TODAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...AND THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH
SUBSTANTIALLY.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT IN THINKING FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIVING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS TO LIFT OUT OF MEXICO SLOWER THAN
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...A HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIRMASS
AND STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
AREAS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE FROM METRO NEW ORLEANS
AND THE NORTHSHORE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
OVER 6 INCHES COULD IMPACT METRO NEW ORLEANS AND NORTHSHORE. THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST COULD EASILY SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN AS WELL
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA COULD VARY FROM 7 TO 10 INCHES FOR THE
BATON ROUGE AREA AND MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST TO A BULLSEYE OF 10
TO 14 INCHES FOR METRO NEW ORLEANS AND THE NORTHSHORE BY THE TIME
THE EVENT IS OVER. ALL OF THESE TOTALS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN BAND DEVELOPS...AND IF MULTIPLE AREAS
OF HEAVIER RAIN TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATION. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
ISSUES COULD ARISE WITH THIS EVENT GIVEN THE HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS
EXPECTED. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...OVERNIGHTS LOWS WILL ONLY
COOL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER DUE TO THE EXPECTED
RAINS...AND ONLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...

ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
FINALLY PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR DRIER AIR AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO ADVECT IN.
RAINFALL SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SKIES CLEARING AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPING...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT NO REAL IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND ONLY EXPECT TO SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS
AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS COMBINED
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES COULD FURTHER WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MONDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS AND THE FORMATION OF A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARMING
FURTHER INTO THE MIDDLE 80S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN
TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...AS A BROAD AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION OVERSPREAD THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN FORCING ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY...AND THIS COULD SERVE AS FOCUS FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA...OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RAIN COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH HEAVIER RAIN BANDS STARTING TO
COME IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL DUE TO LOW CEILINGS...BUT PERIODS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. EXPECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE NORTHERN
GULF WATER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
WHICH WILL YIELD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
AREAS. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
THRESHOLDS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS AND SEAS...COASTAL FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER LATER TODAY...LOOKS LIKE
WARNING CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. HOWEVER...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT
WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING AT RED RIVER LANDING AND MONITORING FOR HEAVY
             RAIN THREAT THROUGH SATURDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  67  71  64 / 100 100 100  90
BTR  76  68  72  64 / 100 100 100  90
ASD  75  68  71  66 /  80 100 100 100
MSY  76  68  71  66 /  90 100 100 100
GPT  74  68  71  67 /  70  80 100 100
PQL  74  67  72  66 /  60  70  80  80

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ040-058>070-072.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ040-
     049-050-057-058-060>064-066>070-072.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ080>082.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     MSZ080>082.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
554 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-110000-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND
LOUISIANA OUT 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-
WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-
ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-
UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
554 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN FOR WATERS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WILL INCLUDE ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 AND 12 CORRIDOR. SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL
LOCATIONS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO THE
MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA STATE LINE. THESE LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE TIDES UP TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WITH
TIDES POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 3 TO 3.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY
HANCOCK COUNTY AND THE NORTHSHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS HEAVY RAINFALL AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO
11 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 13 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY STARTING TODAY MAINLY FOR
FLOOD REPORTING.