Small Craft Advisory 34, NWS Lake Charles, LA

533 
WHUS74 KLCH 272030
MWWLCH

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
330 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...

.STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL ALLOW STRONG AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS.

GMZ450-470-280200-
/O.EXT.KLCH.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-160528T0200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
330 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

* WAVES/SEAS...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

RUA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
955 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Earlier complex of thunderstorms continues to weaken over the
forecast area...and the remnant activity should not make much more
progress to the east and continue to weaken. Will keep decent pops
in the forecast for upper southeast Texas and west central
Louisiana for the remainder of the day...as once airmass
recovers...daytime heating should allow for redevelopment of
showers and storms...with numerous left over meso scale boundaries
serving as a focus. Pops will taper off the further to the
east...with just a slight chance for lower Acadiana. Remainder of
the forecast is unchanged at this time.

Rua

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 655 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
For the 05/27/16 1200 UTC TAF package.

AVIATION...
Line of convection currently pushing through E TX this morning
just moving into the KBPT area at this time. Inserted a tempo TSRA
here for the next few HRS, though that duration may prove too
long. Effects on downstream sites becomes increasingly uncertain,
and for that reason have only used VCTS at KAEX and KLCH, with no
mention at all for the Acadiana terminals. Doppler velocityestimates
in the stronger convection have been around 50KT at near 3K FT,
but gusts at the surface thus far have been closer to 20-25KT.
Will continue to monitor trends for possible AMDS, as it appears
the convection will reach KLCH sooner than indicated in the TAF.
Away from the convection, a mix of MVFR and VFR CIGS are expected
with south winds increasing and becoming gusty with daytime
mixing.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Short Term...Today through Saturday.
Main forecast issues will be POPs especially over western parts of
the forecast area today and intensity of storms as they move
through southeast Texas this morning. Based on satellite and
radar...overall thunderstorm activity had weakened across
southeast Texas overnight as convection has increased and
intensified westward into central Texas. However...intense
convective line is beginning to organize northwest of Houston and
will likely move into southeast Texas later this morning. SPC has
issued a watch until 10 AM for southeast Texas as strong winds
and hail will be possible. Will maintain current fotrecast of
high POPs similar to ongoing forecast. Focus of stronger storms
and heavy appears to shifting further west in time. Also total QPF
through 12Z Saturday is forecasted under 1 inch so no FFA for now.
While upper trough axis will shift NE of area...rich thte air will
remain over the area so taper POPs to chance category for
Saturday. Highest POPs will remain over the north.

04

Long Term...Saturday night through Thursday
A fairly persistent weak upper ridge pattern is expected through
at least the middle of next week. With rich moisture still in
place...will continue with low-end diurnal rain chances through
Wednesday. Upper trough will begin to move into the southern
Plains by late next week. Both GFS and ECMWF are showing
impressive upper diffluent flow east of the trough which would
denote potential for more heavy rain events. Temperatures should
remain near normal through late next week.

04

MARINE...
Persistent high pressure will continue over the eastern U.S. through
Saturday. This will keep a modest gradient over the area through
Saturday.  Gradient should weaken by Sunday as high pressure builds
westward. This should bring a weak wind regime for the northern Gulf
and coastal areas for early next week.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  71  87  70 /  60  20  40  10
LCH  83  74  85  72 /  40  20  30  10
LFT  85  72  87  71 /  30  10  20  10
BPT  83  75  86  73 /  50  40  30  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for GMZ450-452-
     455-470-472-475.

&&

PUBLIC...07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
407 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
280915-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
407 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. A STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR AS WELL BUT AT
THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT
THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAINFALL
THREATS ARE ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-280915-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
407 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WATERS TODAY. SOME STORMS MAY HAVE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25
TO 30 KNOTS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ONSHORE FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS MAY
OCCUR. AT THIS TIME...FORECASTED WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HAZARDOUS. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
629 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

LAZ027-030-041-TXZ201-216-259>262-271230-
BEAUREGARD LA-VERNON LA-CALCASIEU LA-NORTHERN JASPER TX-
SOUTHERN JASPER TX-SOUTHERN NEWTON TX-ORANGE TX-NORTHERN NEWTON TX-
HARDIN TX-
629 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN VERNON...BEAUREGARD
AND WESTERN CALCASIEU PARISHES...NORTHERN ORANGE...EAST CENTRAL
HARDIN...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM CDT...

AT 628 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BROWNDELL TO NEAR BUNA TO LAKEVIEW.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEAUMONT...JASPER...LEESVILLE...VINTON...NEWTON...KIRBYVILLE...ROSEPINE...
MERRYVILLE...DEWEYVILLE...BON WEIR...BURKEVILLE...EVADALE...CALL...DE
QUINCY...SINGER...MAURICEVILLE...DE RIDDER...STARKS...BUNA AND FIELDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3121 9328 3052 9325 3011 9345 3014 9410
      3017 9412 3017 9417 3019 9418 3018 9421
      3048 9407 3062 9408 3063 9406 3064 9405
      3067 9408 3110 9410
TIME...MOT...LOC 1128Z 267DEG 30KT 3104 9401 3049 9398 3022 9412

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
905 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WILDWOOD                30.52N 94.44W
05/27/2016                   HARDIN             TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED TREES DOWN NEAR WILDWOOD

&&

HUMPHREY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
947 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW WOODVILLE          30.72N 94.48W
05/27/2016                   TYLER              TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COOP OBSERVER REPORTS TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

HUMPHREY