Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
635 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.AVIATION...
Storms north of HGX continue to march towards southeast Texas
this evening. These storms look to lower vsby...ceilings...
and produce hail along with strong and gusty winds. Storms
expected to move through BPT in about one to two hours. Conds
to go ifr... LCH getting a bit of light rain although clouds
remain vfr.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Clouds thickening up across the area now thanks to a combination
of scattered low level clouds and mid to upper level clouds from
thunderstorm blowoff. This thunderstorm activity was occurring
over the piney woods...prairies and lakes region of Texas...and
had edged into interior southeast Texas this afternoon.

Temperatures warmed into the upper 80s to near 90 in most of
southwest...central and south central Louisiana. However...thick
clouds and some rain cooled air had southeast Texas temperatures
reeling back into the lowers 80s south to the uppers 70s interior
southeast Texas.

The upper flow was southwesterly aloft ahead of a broad trough
which covered much of the southwest United States. A disturbance
ejected out of the main trough was now moving into the Houston
region. showers and thunderstorms...some severe...were beginning
to pick up steam. Most of this activity looked to be headed more
into the Piney Woods and northeast Texas this afternoon and
evening. However...no doubt some of the edge will eventually get
into southwest Texas and western Louisiana overnight. Have upped
the pops to account for current HRRR and MOS guidance which
appeared to bring this activity into our area...albeit...the
highest pops looks to be across interior southeast Texas. I did
not go as high as guidance this time around as some of this will
weaken with loss of daytime heating and the trajectory of the rain
indicates most will stay west of a Alexandria Lake Charles line.

Better rain chances, along with a risk of severe thunderstorms,
will come Friday and on into Saturday as the main trof with a
negatively tilted axis emerges east of the Rockies then
subsequently lifts out to the NE. Large hail/damaging winds appear
to be the primary hazards at this time. Convection will also be
quite efficient at rainfall production given progged PWATs near 2
inches.

The upper ridge will build back in a bit in the wake of the trof,
with rain chances decreasing back to a small diurnal PoP from
Sunday through early week. Disparity appears in the guidance by
mid week with the ECMWF breaking the ridge down again while the
GFS holds it firm. Capped PoPs at a low end chance.

06

MARINE... Onshore flow will prevail through the week as high
pressure remains established over the Southeast coast. The onshore
winds will increase tonight into Friday as a series of low
pressure systems develops over the Plains. Small craft should
exercise caution over the Gulf waters tonight through Friday
night.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  84  70  86 /  70  50  30  50
LCH  75  83  73  84 /  80  40  30  40
LFT  74  85  72  86 /  30  20  20  30
BPT  76  83  74  85 /  80  50  40  40

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION through late Friday night for
     GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

AVIATION...19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
544 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
271100-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
544 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED AND MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. NO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-271100-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
544 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOUTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MODEST SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE GULF WATERS. SOUTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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