Flash Flood Warning 90, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
921 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.UPDATE...Showers and storms continue to stream into LA from the
gulf, however guidance indicates that the convection will decrease
through midnight and the early morning hours much like last night
and this past morning. Pops were adjusted accordingly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016/

DISCUSSION...
For the 17/00Z TAF issuance.

AVIATION...
A very moist air mass and instability from daytime heating has
initiated another round of scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms. For the remainder of the evening there will be a
chance of seeing this convection at the KAEX/KBPT/KLCH sites with
brief MVFR/IFR conditions. Activity seems to be diurnally driven
and consensus of short term guidance is to have activity diminish
by 17/04Z, and will go with this scenario for the TAF package.
After 17/04Z, mainly VFR conditions expected for the remainder of
the night.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Short Term...Tonight and Tomorrow...
MRMS regional reflectivity shows showers ongoing across the CWA
with a line of embedded stronger extending from roughly Sabine
Pass to Marksville moving northward. SPC mesoanalysis shows PW
values remain above 2.1 inches, which corresponds to the 90th
percentile for August, across all of our CWA. Despite abundant
moisture across the whole area, afternoon model guidance indicates
the highest POPs this evening across SE Texas. Additionally,
guidance shows a relative minimum in convective activity across
Acadiana which should minimize the threat for additional localized
flooding tonight.

The axis of highest PW values will continue to shift westward
tomorrow. Highest QPF values will continue to be across SE Texas,
but the entire CWA will remain in chance to likely categorical POPs.

Long Term...Thursday through Tuesday...
Overall, mainly minor adjustments were made to the previous long
term forecast package. An upper level ridge will continue to build
into the northern Gulf through the second half of the week and
into the weekend. This will result in the tongue of tropical
moisture finally exiting the region. Ensemble guidance shows PW
values finally return to near the climatological average of 1.5 to
2.0 inches by the weekend and remaining through next week.
Therefore, kept POPs limited to a chance and Superblend
temperatures for the long term period.

MARINE...
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD AND WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE
LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LOW TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEAS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE FIVE DAY FORECAST.
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND THE STRONGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  87  74  90 /  60  50  30  50
LCH  75  87  75  89 /  70  60  30  50
LFT  75  89  75  89 /  60  50  20  50
BPT  76  87  76  90 /  60  60  30  50

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

PUBLIC...05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
353 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
170900-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
353 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
LOOKING FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CREATE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND IN URBAN AREAS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
RAINS LOOK TO BEGIN TAPERING BACK A BIT TOMORROW AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE RAINFALL PATTERN LOOKING MORE LIKE A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME REGIME FOR THIS AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-170900-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
353 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BE HIGHER NEAR STORM ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF JUST
LIKE THE ACTIVITY OVER LAND AREAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

K. KUYPER