Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
302 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2016

At H5 upper ridge has shifted east over Mississippi valley with
500mb wave underneath centered over Arkalatex. Closed low over
the Northeast conus. Closed low over west central Canada followed
by Gulf of Alaska closed low. Deep trough extending into southwest
conus.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2016

The main forecast challenges over the next 24 hours are thunder
chances associated with a cold front passage. As of 19z, some
development is underway across the northern Sandhills and far
southwest Nebraska.

This evening and tonight... Expecting further convective development
along the front as it progresses east through the CWA. The bulk of
the thunderstorm activity this evening should occur roughly along
Hwy 83 with continued showers and embedded storms overnight across
central Nebraska. Kept the mention of heavy rain due to PWAT around
140 percent of normal per the 12z KLBF raob and storm motion
parallel to the front, which is favorable for training storms.
Decided against a Flash Flood Watch as guidance suggests around 2
inches in 3 hours for Chase/Hayes/Frontier and projected rainfall
tonight is lower. However, the storms will be capable of isolated
severe hail and wind before sundown. Sufficient instability exists
ahead of the front where temperatures reached the upper 80s to lower
90s with dew points in the mid 60s. Deep layer shear is lacking,
which will be a limiting factor in well-organized upscale growth.
Albeit weaker than Saturday night, the LLJ should help maintain
activity from KBBW to KANW and east. Made little change to min
temps, which keep upper 50s in northwest Neb behind the front and
mid 60s ahead where cloud cover and precipitation will help keep it
mild.

Monday... Likely a lull in the activity mid to late morning before
the next round of storms kicks off in the panhandle. Low level flow
turns southeast during the day, helping to draw in good moisture.
Model consensus results in dew points generally in the mid 60s for
the eastern half of the CWA. Deep shear is much more impressive with
this system, on the scale of 40+ kts in the NAM. Coexisting with
MUCAPE of at least 2000j/kg, mid level lapse rates near 7c/km and LI
near -6, severe hail and wind potential appear greater. Depending on
Sunday evening/night observed rainfall, flash flood potential will
need to be reevaluated as heavy rain threat continues. Likely pops
may be a bit too east from 21-00z as hi-res ensembles suggest
initiation in the western Neb panhandle toward 22z.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2016

Models in fair agreement with mid and long term solutions. Will
use a blend for the forecast. Thunderstorms will continue through
Monday evening with the Boundary just to the west being the main
focus as lee side low and surface high to the east combine for
upslope flow. Difluence aloft and low level jet with an upper wave
moving through with main area of concern southwest Nebraska south
of Interstate 80. Some areas of moderate to heavy precipitation
expected. Excessive rainfall a possibility and will have to be
watched for highlights with Sunday nights rainfall factored in.
Much cooler on Tuesday with highs in the 80s residual showers and
thunderstorms to the east over north central Nebraska. Ridge
begins to build back in through the end of the week with some
northern stream systems well into Canada that my brush northern
Nebraska with some light precip. Highs around 90 Wednesday and in
the lower to mid 90s through the weekend and basically dry under
the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2016

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop along a cold
front this afternoon and evening across western Nebraska. Erratic
gusty winds and very heavy rain will be likely with the
thunderstorms. As the cold front moves east across the region, a
large wind shift from south to northwest will occur. After the
cold front, showers with embedded thunderstorms will likely
continue overnight for central Nebraska, mainly from KLBF to KVTN
and points east. Winds will transition to northeast and then east
by late Monday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2016

Minor flooding continues along the North Platte River near
Lewellen and upstream of Lake McConaughy. The gauge at North Platte
continues to read moderate flood stage. Flooding is a result of
increased releases from reservoirs in Wyoming...as well as increased
releases from Lake McConaughy. Flooding is expected to continue
through June. Elevated levels are present on the South Platte River
at Roscoe and North Platte, and the Platte River near Brady. The
South Platte River at Roscoe continues to slowly fall and is now
below action stage.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Power
SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Power
AVIATION...Snively
HYDROLOGY...Snively

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