Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1227 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2016

Today and Tonight...the RAP and HRRR models were the basis for
todays rain forecast. The HRRR CR version was the only model to
correctly forecast the thunderstorms underway early this morning and
it is holding back on the eastward progression of storm development
unlike the GFS and NAM model which are very fast. Thus rain chances
are highest across the Sandhills and the eastern Panhandle today and
North Central Nebraska tonight.

Precipitable water increases to 1.5 inches in all models supporting
the forecast for locally heavy rainfall both today and tonight. WPC
has been circling parts of the fcst area for excessive rainfall and
their new forecast will be available this morning.

The temperature forecast uses a blend of 4 guidance data sets plus
bias correction which produces a temperature forecast of 80s west of
the developing sfc boundary across the Sandhills and eastern
Panhandle with lower 90s east of the boundary.

What is supposed to happen is the convection early this morning
should dissipate leaving a rain cooled boundary which becomes the
focus for locally heavy rainfall this afternoon and tonight.
The thunderstorm activity should become numerous late this afternoon
and propagate east tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2016

Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms stick around through Monday
as the front slowly moves eastward. Cooler temperatures return to
the region with highs only rising up into the low 80s on Monday. A
strong upper-level shortwave will then move out of the Rockies on
Monday afternoon and evening, bringing another round of showers and
thunderstorms to central Nebraska. This system has the potential to
bring significant heavy rainfall to the region. With an 1-2 inches
of new precipitation forecasted for the Monday night timeframe,
localized flooding could be possible as well as a possible rise in
water levels along the already flooding North Platte River. However,
with this system still a few days off, it's a bit uncertain on the
location of heaviest rainfall which will play a big part in how the
rivers respond and whether any new flooding occurs. While the
heaviest rainfall is expected to be done by Tuesday, lingering rain
and thunderstorm chances stick around throughout the day. High
temperatures rise up into the low 80s again for Tuesday.

A strong upper level ridge builds across the central US resulting in
surface high pressure to return to the region for Wednesday through
Friday. Dry conditions and temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s
are expected to prevail through the end of the week and into the
weekend. A slight chance of thunderstorms return on Friday night as
a weak front moves across the northern plains. Right now confidence
is low in the development of these storms due to how far out this
system is and nothing more than a mention is needed at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2016

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop along a cold
front this afternoon and evening across western Nebraska. Erratic
gusty winds and very heavy rain will be likely with the
thunderstorms. As the cold front moves east across the region, a
large wind shift from south to northwest will occur. After the
cold front, showers with embedded thunderstorms will likely
continue overnight for central Nebraska, mainly from KLBF to KVTN
and points east. Winds will transition to northeast and then east
by late Monday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2016

Minor flooding continues along the North Platte River near
Lewellen and upstream of Lake McConaughy. The gauge at North
Platte continues to read moderate flood stage. Flooding is a
result of increased releases from reservoirs in Wyoming...as well
as increased releases from Lake McConaughy. Flooding is expected
to continue through June. Elevated levels are present on the
North Platte River near Lisco, the South Platte River at Roscoe
and North Platte, and the Platte River near Brady.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Snively
HYDROLOGY...Snively

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
808 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-131315-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
808 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016 /708 AM MDT SUN JUN 12 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLOODING IN SELECT
AREAS. SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL BUT STORMS THROUGHOUT WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LIGHT WINDS AND VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION.

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE
RIVER FROM LEWELLEN TO NORTH PLATTE. ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS REMAIN
ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR LISCO... THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
FROM ROSCOE TO NORTH PLATTE... AND THE PLATTE RIVER NEAR BRADY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS GENERALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM STOCKVILLE TO GORDON. LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE IS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ONCE AGAIN...SOME STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE MOST
LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OGALLALA TO BARTLETT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW.

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE
RIVER FROM LEWELLEN TO NORTH PLATTE. ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS REMAIN
ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR LISCO... THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
FROM ROSCOE TO NORTH PLATTE... AND THE PLATTE RIVER NEAR BRADY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

POWER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1213 PM MDT SUN JUN 12 2016

NEZ069-121845-
CHASE NE-
1213 PM MDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHASE COUNTY UNTIL 1245
PM MDT...

AT 1213 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LAMAR...OR 17 MILES WEST OF IMPERIAL...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAMAR...CRETE AND CHASE.

LAT...LON 4042 10205 4057 10206 4065 10205 4065 10177
      4041 10187
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 191DEG 16KT 4048 10198

SNIVELY