Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
728 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Dry line analyzed this afternoon across southwest Nebraska with a
stalled frontal boundary across the sandhills. A few storms starting
to fire along the frontal boundary and a decent CU field over
portions of the dry line. The stratus has broken for the most part
with the sun warming things nicely, with 3 pm obs in the upper 70s
to mid 80s. Also east of the dry line/frontal boundary, very muggy
with dew points well into the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Severe weather is the main focus this evening and will likely linger
somewhat after midnight. Afternoon special sounding showing
impressive cape and a weakening cap. Models struggling to determine
which boundary will be the focus for initial convection. Radar
already showing the line developing over cherry county with
satellite showing a nice line of towering CU across the dry line.
With the line in cherry expect that development to continue to
expand. The HRRR and the RAP favor the dry line to also iniation
over the next hour or two. Forecast will continue to include pops
for both lines, however the better upper level support arrives when
the mid level disturbance located across central Colorado lifts
across the area. Tomorrow storms should push to the east with some
clearing and temps rebounding into the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

The main surface front will remain southeast of the forecast area
Monday night with southwest flow aloft. kept near the 20-30 pops
across the south Monday night with a weak disturbance indicated
near the surface front.

Shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast Tuesday through
Sunday. A longwave trough extending from the west coast into the
Northern Rockies will eventually bring a closed low from Colorado
into the Central Plains Thursday night into Friday. Better chances
near 50 percent are forecast Tuesday night and again Thursday
night into Friday.

Highs mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday,
then cooler behind a cold front Friday in the upper 60s to lower
70s, then 75 to 80 Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 728 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Strong to severe storms will impact the KLBF and KVTN terminals
this evening and into the early overnight hours. Wind gusts to
40+ KTS are likely with any strong to severe storms. CIGS in
association with storms will fall as low as 2000 to 4000 FT AGL.
CIGS will increase to 25000 ft AGL overnight as the threat for
storms will end after 10Z Monday. Skies will clear by mid morning
Monday, continuing into the afternoon hours.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Little change with the North Platte River forecast. Could see a
little more rise, 0.1 feet at North Platte, otherwise minor to
moderate flooding continues both upstream and downstream of lake
McConaughy. A minor wave is causing the South Platte River gages to
see a little additional rises over the next few days, however all
sites remain below flood stage on the South Platte River. The Platte
River had a change today as the slight wave moving down the South
Platte River will cause the Platte River gage at Brady to reach
minor flood stage, 7.5 feet. A flood warning was issued due to the
gage site expecting to reach the minor flood stage, the current gage
reading was 7.4 feet. Also with the potential for some rainfall
across the basin, high confidence of reaching 7.5 feet and could
possible reach 7.6 feet.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Masek
SHORT TERM...Masek
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler
HYDROLOGY...Masek

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
402 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-232115-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
402 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 /302 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE AREA OF GREATEST
CONCERN IS GENERALLY FROM MERRIMAN AND IMPERIAL EAST WHERE VERY
LARGE HAIL COULD REACH 2 INCHES OR GREATER IN DIAMETER. WIND
DAMAGE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY FORM.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO LAST PAST MIDNIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY THROUGH LATE EVENING.

RESERVOIR RELEASES ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER WILL MAINTAIN
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING INTO JUNE FROM LISCO TO NORTH PLATTE.
A SLIGHT RISE ON THE PLATTE RIVER WILL CAUSE THE MAIN STEM OF THE
RIVER NEAR BRADY TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS
THIS WEEK. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR RIVER
FORECASTS. THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE THE
CONCERN.

SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY. THE AREA OF GREATEST
CONCERN COVERS CUSTER...LINCOLN AND FRONTIER COUNTIES WHERE A
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN.

RESERVOIR RELEASES ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER WILL MAINTAIN
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING INTO JUNE FROM LISCO TO NORTH PLATTE.
A SLIGHT RISE ON THE PLATTE RIVER WILL CAUSE THE MAIN STEM OF THE
RIVER NEAR BRADY TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS
THIS WEEK. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR RIVER
FORECASTS. THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

MASEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
813 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             4 W ARNOLD              41.42N 100.27W
05/22/2016  M1.75 INCH       LOGAN              NE   PUBLIC

&&

MOLDAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
730 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

NEZ004-230215-
SHERIDAN NE-
730 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY UNTIL
815 PM MDT...

AT 730 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
RUSHVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GORDON...RUSHVILLE...WHITE CLAY...CLINTON...PINE RIDGE...LONE BUTTE...
INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 87 AND LARABEE ROAD...METCALF STATE WILDLIFE
MANAGEMENT AREA...HOOVER LAKE...INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 87 AND CRAVEN
CREEK ROAD...MOUNT MARIA AND INTERSECTION OF BEAVER CREEK ROAD AND
WHITE CLAY CREEK ROAD.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 20 NEAR MILE MARKER 74...AND BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 83 AND 106.
 HIGHWAY 250 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 45 AND 48.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4300 10208 4296 10208 4263 10229 4272 10278
      4278 10277 4279 10279 4300 10279
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 223DEG 48KT 4278 10249

KULIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
753 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

NEZ004-230230-
SHERIDAN NE-
753 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY
UNTIL 830 PM MDT...

AT 752 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES EAST OF BOX BUTTE DAM...OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HAY SPRINGS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUSHVILLE...HAY SPRINGS...INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 87 AND ANTELOPE ROAD...
LONE BUTTE...WALGREN LAKE STATE RECREATION AREA...HIGHWAY 250 CROSSING
THE NIOBRARA RIVER AND INTERSECTION OF BEAVER CREEK ROAD AND WHITE
CLAY CREEK ROAD.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 74 AND 96.
 HIGHWAY 250 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 28 AND 48.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4282 10278 4272 10224 4240 10246 4234 10275
      4244 10275 4244 10277
TIME...MOT...LOC 0152Z 221DEG 45KT 4244 10284

KULIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
902 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 PM     HAIL             30 N MULLEN             42.48N 101.04W
05/22/2016  E1.75 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

            RESIDENTS LOST POWER AS STORM WENT THROUGH.

&&

MOLDAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
903 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     HAIL             30 N MULLEN             42.48N 101.04W
05/22/2016  E1.00 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

            RESIDENTS STILL WITHOUT POWER. GROUND IS TURNING WHITE
            FROM HAIL ACCUMULATION.

&&

MOLDAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
924 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     FLASH FLOOD      VALENTINE               42.87N 100.55W
05/22/2016                   CHERRY             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN THE CITY OF
            VALENTINE PER EMERGENCY MANAGER. COUNTY CREWS WILL BE
            DISPATCHED TOMORROW...MONDAY MORNING...TO ASSES FLOODING
            IN RURAL CHERRY COUNTY.

&&

MOLDAN