Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS North Platte, NE

692 
WWUS53 KLBF 090231
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
931 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

NEC089-090240-
/O.EXP.KLBF.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-160509T0230Z/
HOLT NE-
931 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN HOLT COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND HAVE EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH
THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4276 9906 4248 9892 4245 9918 4252 9924
      4274 9924
TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 151DEG 19KT 4259 9913 

$$

ROBERG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
647 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

SOME CLEARING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
HOWEVER...THE WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH WILL
TAKE THE FOCUS OF LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AWAY FROM WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO AREAS OF KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA EAST OF
THE DRY LINE AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...A
SECONDARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LIES WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. SOME
STORMS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO FIRE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THESE ARE
THE STORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THEY WILL BE ENTERING A
RECEPITIVE ENVORONMENT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO REMAIN
FAILRY STEEP AND THE SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY WILL ASSIST LOWER AND
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. CAPE AND SHEAR IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR HAIL...ESPECIALLY AFTER 22Z SO ANY STORMS THAT ARE
ALLOWED TO TAKE OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COULD
CONCEVIABLY PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL.

HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AS STORMS CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS ONCE THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE AND AT TIMES
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM NORTH PLATTE TO VALENTINE.

THE WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF ANY SHOWERS
TRYING TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FROM OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW IN WYOMING FUJIWHARAS ITS WAY
AROUND THE BASE OF THE NORTH DAKOTA LOW DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR HEIGHTS LOW AND OUR WEATHER SHOWERY AND
UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES
MOVES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD NRN NEB TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SECOND
UPPER LOW ACROSS SRN ALBERTA WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
AND ABSORB THE FIRST DISTURBANCE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEW UPPER
LOW WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY AND PULL COLD AIR INTO
THE FCST AREA WEDNESDAY. A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR TUESDAY NIGHT
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS SWRN AND NCNTL NEB. OTHERWISE RAIN
CHANCES ARE ISOLATED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY RISE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH WEAK WARMING.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. COLD AIR ALOFT
MAY STEEPEN LAPSE RATES FOR AFTN SHOWERS ACROSS NRN NEB. FROST IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WRN SANDHILLS AND ERN
PANHANDLE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. OTHERWISE 40S ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
WILL PULL CANADIAN AIR INTO THE FCST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HEIGHTS ALOFT INDICATE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT THE AIR APPEARS TO BE TOO
COOL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT...K INDICES ARE LESS THAN 30C. THE GFS20
AND ECM ARE SIGNALING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SUPPORTING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. LOWS
FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH FROST POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS WRN NEB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS EVENING.
WHILE MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORCAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

...FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE NORTH PLATTE AT LEWELLEN...

ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER
UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY...AS WELL AS THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER...BASED ON FLOWS UPSTREAM IN WYOMING
AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...INDICATIONS ARE THAT RIVER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE FOR LISCO AND LEWELLEN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY...THE RIVER STAGE AT LEWELLEN IS 8.1 FEET
...WHICH IS 0.6 FEET ABOVE THE FLOOD STAGE OF 7.5 FEET. THIS STAGE
IS EXPECTED TO GO TO 8.3 FEET TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE IS 8.5 FEET.

THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LISCO IS CURRENTLY AT 3.49 FEET AND THE
LATEST FORECAST IS FOR IT TO RISE TO 4.8 FEET BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. FLOOD STAGE IS 4.0 FEET AND MODERATE FLOOD STAGE IS AT 5.0
FEET. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS THEN IT COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE
BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND RECENT CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST...A HYROLOGIC OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED BUT THAT MAY BE REPLACED
BY A FLOOD WATCH IF FORECAST CERTAINTY INCREASES.

ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER...RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THIS WEEK AND MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT ROSCOE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...ALLEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
540 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-092245-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
540 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 /440 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CURTIS TO BREWSTER TO
BARTLETT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.
OVERNIGHT...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT... ESPECIALLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM NORTH PLATTE TO VALENTINE.

RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM OF LAKE
MCCONAUGHY...AS WELL AS THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER...WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED. MINOR FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER
NEAR LEWELLEN AS IT IS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RISE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.

HIGH RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG
THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER...AS WELL AS THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER
UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY. MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LEWELLEN...AND
MAY BEGIN REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT LISCO LATE IN THE WEEK.
RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE AT ROSCOE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL BUT THEY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING MAINLY IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

ROBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
743 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             2 W AMELIA              42.23N 99.00W
05/08/2016  E1.00 INCH       HOLT               NE   PUBLIC

&&

BTAYLOR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
745 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     HAIL             4 SW AMELIA             42.19N 99.02W
05/08/2016  M1.25 INCH       HOLT               NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

SNIVELY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
755 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND GST     13 NW TAYLOR            41.90N 99.56W
05/08/2016  E60 MPH          LOUP               NE   PUBLIC

&&

BTAYLOR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
820 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     HAIL             10 NW AMELIA            42.33N 99.10W
05/08/2016  M1.00 INCH       HOLT               NE   PUBLIC

&&

BTAYLOR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
830 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             5 N BURWELL             41.85N 99.13W
05/08/2016  E1.00 INCH       GARFIELD           NE   PUBLIC

&&

SNIVELY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
853 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 PM     HAIL             4 NNE MASON CITY        41.28N 99.27W
05/08/2016  E1.00 INCH       CUSTER             NE   PUBLIC

&&

BTAYLOR