Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
304 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 302 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

...This Afternoon and Evening...

Convection has broken out across the area this afternoon. The main
driver behind the convection is a piece of upper level energy
pushing north along the edge of an upper level ridge axis. The
convection should continue to progress northward throughout the
remainder of the afternoon and evening, with locally heavy rainfall
possible. Gusty winds and frequent lightning are also possible with
any of the stronger storms through this evening. Storms should begin
weakening with loss of daytime heating. However, some storms could
linger in the north into the early overnight hours.

...Tuesday and Tuesday Night...

The overall pattern in the short term has not changed much over the
past few days with a frontal boundary off to the northwest and a
ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean. This frontal boundary is
expected to shift to the east-southeast through the short term
period, getting closer to East Kentucky. Though, the front is
expected to weaken and become less organized as it makes this
gradual move. After a lull in precipitation Tuesday morning, precip
chances will increase with peak heating Tuesday afternoon and
continue through Tuesday night as the boundary approaches the
region.

Temperatures will also be status quo with mild morning lows, in the
low 70s, and afternoon highs near 90 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

A cold front will be in the process of working southeastward
across the region on Wednesday spawning numerous showers and
thunderstorms as it moves through. Forecast models remain
consistent today in pushing this boundary and deeper moisture to
our south by late Thursday and Friday, but just barely, and not
far enough to our south to completely remove rain chances. Another
stronger front then moves into the area over the weekend with
another uptick in shower and thunderstorm chances Saturday into at
least Sunday morning. It continues to look like that this front
pushes cleanly through the area leaving a slightly cooler and
drier air mass in place by Monday of next week. Until that
happens, expect a continuation of warm and humid conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

Some thunderstorms have developed across the area this afternoon.
Expect additional thunderstorm development throughout the
remainder of the afternoon and early evening. Some of these storms
could produce periods of lower visibilities along with gusty
winds. Outside of thunderstorms, conditions should remain VFR.
Depending on where the rain falls today, fog may be an issue
tonight, but will leave it out of the TAFS until we see where the
rain falls this afternoon.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JVM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
327 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-162230-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BROADHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...
JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY...
PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
327 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD...
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JVM/ABE

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