Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Jackson, KY

August 15, 2016Harlan County, Letcher County, Perry County, Kentucky

NWS Jackson, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 15, 2016, 3:13 PM EDT for Harlan County, Letcher County, Perry County, Kentucky. It was in force for 32 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Aug 15, 2016, 3:13 PM EDT (19:13 UTC)
Expired
Aug 15, 2016, 3:45 PM EDT
In force
32 min
Issued by
NWS Jackson, KY
Area
Storm-based polygon
Hail
0.75 in
Wind
60.0 mph

Counties Harlan County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Perry County, KY

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 269 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2016-08-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 45 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2016-08-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -111 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
45 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-154 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1003 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-111 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-81 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 15, 3:04 PM EDT, 9 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 15, 3:04 PM EDT, 9 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
304 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 302 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

...This Afternoon and Evening...

Convection has broken out across the area this afternoon. The main
driver behind the convection is a piece of upper level energy
pushing north along the edge of an upper level ridge axis. The
convection should continue to progress northward throughout the
remainder of the afternoon and evening, with locally heavy rainfall
possible. Gusty winds and frequent lightning are also possible with
any of the stronger storms through this evening. Storms should begin
weakening with loss of daytime heating. However, some storms could
linger in the north into the early overnight hours.

...Tuesday and Tuesday Night...

The overall pattern in the short term has not changed much over the
past few days with a frontal boundary off to the northwest and a
ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean. This frontal boundary is
expected to shift to the east-southeast through the short term
period, getting closer to East Kentucky. Though, the front is
expected to weaken and become less organized as it makes this
gradual move. After a lull in precipitation Tuesday morning, precip
chances will increase with peak heating Tuesday afternoon and
continue through Tuesday night as the boundary approaches the
region.

Temperatures will also be status quo with mild morning lows, in the
low 70s, and afternoon highs near 90 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

A cold front will be in the process of working southeastward
across the region on Wednesday spawning numerous showers and
thunderstorms as it moves through. Forecast models remain
consistent today in pushing this boundary and deeper moisture to
our south by late Thursday and Friday, but just barely, and not
far enough to our south to completely remove rain chances. Another
stronger front then moves into the area over the weekend with
another uptick in shower and thunderstorm chances Saturday into at
least Sunday morning. It continues to look like that this front
pushes cleanly through the area leaving a slightly cooler and
drier air mass in place by Monday of next week. Until that
happens, expect a continuation of warm and humid conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

Some thunderstorms have developed across the area this afternoon.
Expect additional thunderstorm development throughout the
remainder of the afternoon and early evening. Some of these storms
could produce periods of lower visibilities along with gusty
winds. Outside of thunderstorms, conditions should remain VFR.
Depending on where the rain falls today, fog may be an issue
tonight, but will leave it out of the TAFS until we see where the
rain falls this afternoon.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JVM
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 15, 3:54 AM EDT, 11 hours 19 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, KY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 14, 8:56 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLPike34 min
Aug 14, 11:45 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLPulaski30 min
Aug 15, 12:07 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLPulaski23 min
Aug 15, 12:28 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLRockcastle32 min
Aug 15, 2:53 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryJKLKnox, McCreary, Whitley3 hr
Aug 15, 3:17 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLKnox43 min
Aug 15, 4:16 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLPerry29 min
Aug 15, 4:21 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLEstill, Jackson, Lee, Owsley24 min
Aug 15, 4:30 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLEstill30 min
Aug 15, 4:36 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLBreathitt, Floyd, Knott, Magoffin39 min
Aug 15, 4:47 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLEstill, Lee, Powell, Wolfe28 min
Aug 15, 4:55 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryJKLBreathitt, Knott, Magoffin, Perry3 hr
Aug 15, 5:06 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLFloyd, Martin, Pike39 min
Aug 15, 5:10 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLBreathitt, Johnson, Magoffin, Morgan, Wolfe35 min
Aug 15, 5:15 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLEstill, Lee, Menifee, Montgomery, Powell, Wolfe30 min
Aug 15, 5:45 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLBath, Elliott, Menifee, Montgomery, Morgan, Rowan30 min
Aug 15, 6:17 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJKLBath, Elliott, Fleming, Rowan43 min
Aug 15, 6:30 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryJKLElliott, Morgan, Rowan3 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2016Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.