Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Jackson, KY
NWS Jackson, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 15, 2016, 3:13 PM EDT for Harlan County, Letcher County, Perry County, Kentucky. It was in force for 32 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 15, 2016, 3:13 PM EDT (19:13 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 15, 2016, 3:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 32 min
- Issued by
- NWS Jackson, KY
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Hail
- 0.75 in
- Wind
- 60.0 mph
Counties Harlan County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Perry County, KY
The radar
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 269 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 45 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -154 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1003 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 44 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -111 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -81 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 15, 3:04 PM EDT, 9 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 15, 3:04 PM EDT, 9 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 304 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 302 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016 ...This Afternoon and Evening... Convection has broken out across the area this afternoon. The main driver behind the convection is a piece of upper level energy pushing north along the edge of an upper level ridge axis. The convection should continue to progress northward throughout the remainder of the afternoon and evening, with locally heavy rainfall possible. Gusty winds and frequent lightning are also possible with any of the stronger storms through this evening. Storms should begin weakening with loss of daytime heating. However, some storms could linger in the north into the early overnight hours. ...Tuesday and Tuesday Night... The overall pattern in the short term has not changed much over the past few days with a frontal boundary off to the northwest and a ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean. This frontal boundary is expected to shift to the east-southeast through the short term period, getting closer to East Kentucky. Though, the front is expected to weaken and become less organized as it makes this gradual move. After a lull in precipitation Tuesday morning, precip chances will increase with peak heating Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night as the boundary approaches the region. Temperatures will also be status quo with mild morning lows, in the low 70s, and afternoon highs near 90 degrees. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 300 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016 A cold front will be in the process of working southeastward across the region on Wednesday spawning numerous showers and thunderstorms as it moves through. Forecast models remain consistent today in pushing this boundary and deeper moisture to our south by late Thursday and Friday, but just barely, and not far enough to our south to completely remove rain chances. Another stronger front then moves into the area over the weekend with another uptick in shower and thunderstorm chances Saturday into at least Sunday morning. It continues to look like that this front pushes cleanly through the area leaving a slightly cooler and drier air mass in place by Monday of next week. Until that happens, expect a continuation of warm and humid conditions. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016 Some thunderstorms have developed across the area this afternoon. Expect additional thunderstorm development throughout the remainder of the afternoon and early evening. Some of these storms could produce periods of lower visibilities along with gusty winds. Outside of thunderstorms, conditions should remain VFR. Depending on where the rain falls today, fog may be an issue tonight, but will leave it out of the TAFS until we see where the rain falls this afternoon. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...JVM
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 15, 3:54 AM EDT, 11 hours 19 minutes before
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</html>The office that day
Everything else NWS Jackson, KY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 8:56 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | Pike | 34 min |
| Aug 14, 11:45 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | Pulaski | 30 min |
| Aug 15, 12:07 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | Pulaski | 23 min |
| Aug 15, 12:28 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | Rockcastle | 32 min |
| Aug 15, 2:53 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Knox, McCreary, Whitley | 3 hr |
| Aug 15, 3:17 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | Knox | 43 min |
| Aug 15, 4:16 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | Perry | 29 min |
| Aug 15, 4:21 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | Estill, Jackson, Lee, Owsley | 24 min |
| Aug 15, 4:30 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | Estill | 30 min |
| Aug 15, 4:36 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | Breathitt, Floyd, Knott, Magoffin | 39 min |
| Aug 15, 4:47 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | Estill, Lee, Powell, Wolfe | 28 min |
| Aug 15, 4:55 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Breathitt, Knott, Magoffin, Perry | 3 hr |
| Aug 15, 5:06 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | Floyd, Martin, Pike | 39 min |
| Aug 15, 5:10 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | Breathitt, Johnson, Magoffin, Morgan, Wolfe | 35 min |
| Aug 15, 5:15 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | Estill, Lee, Menifee, Montgomery, Powell, Wolfe | 30 min |
| Aug 15, 5:45 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | Bath, Elliott, Menifee, Montgomery, Morgan, Rowan | 30 min |
| Aug 15, 6:17 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | Bath, Elliott, Fleming, Rowan | 43 min |
| Aug 15, 6:30 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Elliott, Morgan, Rowan | 3 hr |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2016Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.