Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Jackson, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1033 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1033 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

Complex of storms continues to propagate east toward central
Kentucky with additional showers/storms ongoing across northeast
Kentucky along a moisture gradient in the vicinity of steeper mid
level lapse rates. Partial clearing between these two features
across central Kentucky will allow for a period of diurnal heating
this morning, perhaps allowing storms to eventually build somewhat
south of Mountain Parkway.

Given the brunt of storms late this morning into early this
afternoon expected to reside near/north of Mountain Parkway before
moving east in conjunction with greater moisture advection, have
expanded the flash flood watch to encompass Powell through Elliott
Counties as well as south and east through Martin, Pike, and
Letcher Counties through this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

A boundary, more or less a warm front lingers from southern IL
east into Central KY and then arcs southeast toward sw VA and
Eastern TN. This boundary generally coincides with the leading
edge of the theta e gradient and a gradient in PW exists. PW has
already increased overnight from closer to 1.5 inches to nearer to
1.75 inches in the central CWA and nearing 2 inches in the
southwest CWA in the zonal flow in place across the conus. Within this
flow is a shortwave trough extending from the western great
Lakes/Upper MS Valley south toward eastern KS and western MO.
Other minor disturbances are also moving through the flow some of
them associated with ongoing or past convection. As the moisture
continues to be transported into the region, showers and a few
thunderstorms have moved across the area overnight though as the
PW gradient has lessened precipitation has been more isolated and
lighter and showery in nature. This also corresponds with a
departing disturbance extending from the lakes into the middle OH
Valley region.

Diffluent flow aloft, continued moisture transport into the
region along with steeper mid level lapse rates are advancing
toward the region. This should combine with daytime heating
increasing low level lapse rates as well as decent unidirectional shear
for showers and thunderstorms to be possible most of the day in
advance of the approaching mid level wave. Uncertainty remains in
the extent of cloud cover and its effect on daytime heating and
ultimately the degree of instability. This would not only affect
the chances for severe thunderstorms but also impact whether or
not heavy rain occurs with the storms as well.

However, an  approaching cold front along with the boundary currently
stretched out over the Ohio Valley could lead to training of
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates as they become
parallel or nearly parallel to the mid and upper level flow. The
cloud cover could also impact max t which has been lowered a bit
from previous forecasts, though less mixing might balance out any
affects of mixing on lowering dewpoints. Cape of at least the 1500
to 2500 range with li of at least the -4c to -6c range are
anticipated from midday into the evening as a couple hours of
heating should be able to take sfc temps into the 80s. This all
does depend on the evolution of upstream convection near the
confluence of the OH and MS River Valleys and whether it holds
together, sends debris clouds across the area, or sends an
outflow to focus redevelopment. The primary severe threat appears
to be damaging winds with marginally severe hail also possible in
the strongest storms. Locally heavy rain and the potential for
flash flooding also remains a threat.

PW is expected to increase on westerly to southwesterly flow
today further east into the region in advance of the approaching
cold front. The flash flood watch has been extended not only in
time into this evening...BUT Also further to the east to include
locations of higher soil moisture and most of where some short
term model runs produce the stronger convection. This generally
aligned with locations where the heavier rain has fallen in the
past 48 to 54 hours coinciding with areas of 3 hr FFG values near
or in some cases below 2.0 inches exist. Uncertainty does remain
if heavy rain will be more than localized as well as what
locations. It is possible that a further expansion of the watch
east or south could be needed later today pending convective
trends.

Drier and somewhat cooler air will move into the region behind
the cold front on saturday. A few showers could linger into the
day on saturday or even redevelop during peak heating nearer to
The VA and TV border where moisture will be highest. Capping
should keep cu on the shallower side and likely not deep enough
for any thunder, tHUS Precip type was kept at showers.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

Forecast remains confident on dry forecast for the second half of
the weekend.  Rain chances will return by Monday, but models remain
in poor agreement on exactly by what means rain chances return. The
GFS brings a warm front north across the area, while the ECMWF
brings a slow tracking low pressure system east across the area.
Outside of increasing rain chances, large uncertainty will remain in
the forecast beyond Monday due to the evolution.  It does appear a
more summerlike airmass may reside over the area through the week,
possibly leading to more diurnally focused shower/storm chances
through the week.  If the ECMWF solution were to verify, some
locally heavy rainfall may be a possibility on Monday. Temperatures
will continue to feel very summerlike through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

A cold front and mid level wave are approaching the region as well
as more mesoscale systems. Convection continues to have along a
boundary from southern Indiana that arcs southeast toward the VA
border. The remnants of an MCS are also moving across southern IL
and western KY. Plenty of uncertainty remains in the timing and
strength of thunderstorms as they move across the area through
this evening. Reductions of MVFR and IFR are anticipated as
showers and storms pass a location with this most likely at JKL,
SYM, and SJS during the first 3 to 6 hours of the period. Stratus
and fog should develop late tonight with reductions to IFR if not
approaching airport mins possible by the 6Z to 12Z period.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ058>060-068-069-
079-080-083>086-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1150 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

KYZ085-086-107-109-110-112-113-115>120-091900-
WHITLEY-KNOX-JOHNSON-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-BREATHITT-KNOTT-PERRY-CLAY-
LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...
PAINSVILLE...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...
JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY...
PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
1150 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH WIND GUSTS OF
UP TO 50 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...LEADING TO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.

ADDITIONALLY...WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY BRIEFLY REACHING HEAT INDICES OF 100 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY INTO THURSDAY...
MAINLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KYZ044-050>052-091900-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD
1150 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 355 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 60 MPH
POSSIBLE. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...LEADING TO
VERY ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.

ADDITIONALLY...WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY BRIEFLY REACHING HEAT INDICES OF 100 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY INTO THURSDAY...
MAINLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF WIND DAMAGE AND
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084-104-106-108-111-114-091900-
ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-
MCCREARY-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-WOLFE-LEE-OWSLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...
STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BROADHEAD...MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...
ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...STEARNS...
WHITLEY CITY...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...CAMPTON...
BEATTYVILLE...BOONEVILLE
1150 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 355 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 60 MPH
POSSIBLE. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...LEADING TO
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.

ADDITIONALLY...WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY BRIEFLY REACHING HEAT INDICES OF 100 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY INTO THURSDAY...
MAINLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF WIND DAMAGE...HEAVY
RAIN...AND FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KYZ087-088-091900-
BELL-HARLAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...
HARLAN
1150 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH WIND GUSTS OF
UP TO 50 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...LEADING TO VERY ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.

ADDITIONALLY...WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY BRIEFLY REACHING HEAT INDICES OF 100 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY INTO THURSDAY...
MAINLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF WIND DAMAGE OR HEAVY
RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

GUSEMAN

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