Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday...Showers and thunderstorms
now increasing over ne Fl and se GA this afternoon. Filtered
sunshine has resulted in temperatures reaching the mid 80s
allowing enough instability for numerous showers and scattered
storms. Marginal vertical shear and instability may produce
a few strong storms with strong gusty winds and small hail
possible. Upper impulse will move from the eastern Gulf across ne
Fl/se Ga tonight which will keep pops high through the evening
hours before gradually tapering off overnight. MCS now over
eastern Gulf likely to weaken as it encounters stabilizing airmass
over n central Fl this evening. Stationary front over central Ga
will drift back south into s Ga on Wednesday as weak surface wave
goes by to the north. This boundary along with seabreezes will
result in scattered to numerous storms during the afternoon with
PWATS staying up in the 1.75-2.00" range. Warm and humid conditions
will continue with lows tonight in the upper 60s/lower 70s and
highs Wednesday in the mid 80s.

Wed night...Weak low level trough will extend across central
portions of the area while a frontal boundary will be over portions
of SE GA and the Carolinas. Mid and upper level trough over the ern
U.S. will dig slightly swd helping to push the trough and sfc
front southward over the SE states.  Would expect mainly diurnal
scattered showers and storms Wed night to decrease in coverage
overnight. There may be weak impulses in near zonal flow that could
produce briefly higher coverage after midnight. Lows in the upper
60s to around 70.

Thursday...a weak pressure pattern expected initially with perhaps
weak low pres forming along sfc trough in our area in the aftn. Weak
cool front will be nearly stationary around the Altamaha River
Basin by late afternoon and evening. Models show elevated moisture
levels again with mean rh levels at or above 70 percent. Will
continue with elevated rain chances due to aftn heating/
instability and sea breeze boundaries generally in the 40-60 percent
range...mainly favored inland and nrn zones in the aftn. Highs in
the lower 80s north to upper 80s south zones. Thursday
night...diurnal-driven convection should wind down overnight from
scattered coverage to isolated...with frontal boundary stalling over
srn GA.

.Long Term (Saturday through Tuesday)...Frontal boundary over GA
lifts northward while a mid/upper level shortwave moves into the
central CONUS. This shortwave system will generate sfc cyclogenesis
over the MS Valley while moving newd...with a trailing cold front
extending SW into TX. Expect sct to numerous showers and storms
Saturday ahead of the front...some of which could be on the strong
side. The front is forecast to move south of the area Sunday
morning...while drier air works in from the W-NW flow aloft. We have
likely pops advertised for Saturday...dropping to 30 percent or less
on Sunday. As the front slides south of the area Sunday...temps will
moderate...slightly under recent high temps in the lower to mid 80s.
For Monday and Tuesday...we should be looking at dry conditions and
warming temps with mid and upper level ridge building in from the
west. Highs will begin to warm up to the upper 80s by Tuesday with
lows comfortable in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...Current MVFR/IFR conditions will become IFR as cigs
and vsbys lower with increasing shra/tsra this afternoon. Expect
shower activity to gradually weaken this evening with vcsh
persisting after 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...Frontal boundary will sink south and stall near the Fl-
Ga border the next few days. Winds and seas will remain below
headline criteria with increased shower and thunderstorm activity.

RIP CURRENTS: Moderate risk...becoming low risk on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  84  68  86 /  50  50  30  60
SSI  69  81  71  81 /  60  60  30  50
JAX  70  84  70  86 /  60  60  30  50
SGJ  68  80  71  83 /  70  60  30  40
GNV  70  84  70  89 /  60  60  20  50
OCF  70  84  70  89 /  60  50  20  50

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Zibura/Shashy/Walker

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
917 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-180745-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
917 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST FLORIDA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND STREET FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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