Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday...Showers and thunderstorms
now increasing over ne Fl and se GA this afternoon. Filtered
sunshine has resulted in temperatures reaching the mid 80s
allowing enough instability for numerous showers and scattered
storms. Marginal vertical shear and instability may produce
a few strong storms with strong gusty winds and small hail
possible. Upper impulse will move from the eastern Gulf across ne
Fl/se Ga tonight which will keep pops high through the evening
hours before gradually tapering off overnight. MCS now over
eastern Gulf likely to weaken as it encounters stabilizing airmass
over n central Fl this evening. Stationary front over central Ga
will drift back south into s Ga on Wednesday as weak surface wave
goes by to the north. This boundary along with seabreezes will
result in scattered to numerous storms during the afternoon with
PWATS staying up in the 1.75-2.00" range. Warm and humid conditions
will continue with lows tonight in the upper 60s/lower 70s and
highs Wednesday in the mid 80s.

Wed night...Weak low level trough will extend across central
portions of the area while a frontal boundary will be over portions
of SE GA and the Carolinas. Mid and upper level trough over the ern
U.S. will dig slightly swd helping to push the trough and sfc
front southward over the SE states.  Would expect mainly diurnal
scattered showers and storms Wed night to decrease in coverage
overnight. There may be weak impulses in near zonal flow that could
produce briefly higher coverage after midnight. Lows in the upper
60s to around 70.

Thursday...a weak pressure pattern expected initially with perhaps
weak low pres forming along sfc trough in our area in the aftn. Weak
cool front will be nearly stationary around the Altamaha River
Basin by late afternoon and evening. Models show elevated moisture
levels again with mean rh levels at or above 70 percent. Will
continue with elevated rain chances due to aftn heating/
instability and sea breeze boundaries generally in the 40-60 percent
range...mainly favored inland and nrn zones in the aftn. Highs in
the lower 80s north to upper 80s south zones. Thursday
night...diurnal-driven convection should wind down overnight from
scattered coverage to isolated...with frontal boundary stalling over
srn GA.

.Long Term (Saturday through Tuesday)...Frontal boundary over GA
lifts northward while a mid/upper level shortwave moves into the
central CONUS. This shortwave system will generate sfc cyclogenesis
over the MS Valley while moving newd...with a trailing cold front
extending SW into TX. Expect sct to numerous showers and storms
Saturday ahead of the front...some of which could be on the strong
side. The front is forecast to move south of the area Sunday
morning...while drier air works in from the W-NW flow aloft. We have
likely pops advertised for Saturday...dropping to 30 percent or less
on Sunday. As the front slides south of the area Sunday...temps will
moderate...slightly under recent high temps in the lower to mid 80s.
For Monday and Tuesday...we should be looking at dry conditions and
warming temps with mid and upper level ridge building in from the
west. Highs will begin to warm up to the upper 80s by Tuesday with
lows comfortable in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...Current MVFR/IFR conditions will become IFR as cigs
and vsbys lower with increasing shra/tsra this afternoon. Expect
shower activity to gradually weaken this evening with vcsh
persisting after 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...Frontal boundary will sink south and stall near the Fl-
Ga border the next few days. Winds and seas will remain below
headline criteria with increased shower and thunderstorm activity.

RIP CURRENTS: Moderate risk...becoming low risk on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  84  68  86 /  50  50  30  60
SSI  69  81  71  81 /  60  60  30  50
JAX  70  84  70  86 /  60  60  30  50
SGJ  68  80  71  83 /  70  60  30  40
GNV  70  84  70  89 /  60  60  20  50
OCF  70  84  70  89 /  60  50  20  50

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Zibura/Shashy/Walker

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
917 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-180745-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
917 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST FLORIDA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND STREET FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
326 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

FLZ040-172015-
MARION FL-
326 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARION COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 326 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SANTOS...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OCALA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OCALA...RAINBOW LAKES ESTATES...FORT MCCOY...CITRA...LYNNE...OCALA
AIRPORT...ANTHONY...SILVER SPRINGS SHORES...SPARR...SANTOS...BELLEVIEW...
DUNNELLON...REDDICK...LOWELL...FLEMINGTON AND BURBANK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2906 8251 2922 8242 2922 8240 2925 8240
      2943 8230 2943 8221 2942 8215 2943 8214
      2944 8187 2922 8169 2896 8212 2896 8221
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 234DEG 26KT 2909 8218

HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
333 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

FLZ033-172000-
ST. JOHNS FL-
333 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTY
UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 333 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CRESCENT BEACH...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF SAINT AUGUSTINE...MOVING NORTH AT
20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAINT AUGUSTINE...SAINT AUGUSTINE BEACH...BUTLER BEACH...CRESCENT BEACH...
VILANO BEACH...SAINT AUGUSTINE SHORES...SAINT AUGUSTINE SOUTH...DUPONT
CENTER AND ANASTASIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2967 8135 2995 8147 2999 8126 2970 8116
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 167DEG 15KT 2976 8127

HESS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
347 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE KINGSLAND         30.76N 81.65W
05/17/2016                   CAMDEN             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED A TREE DOWNED ON A POWERLINE
            OFF OF SCRUBBY BLUFF ROAD.

&&

KGUILLET

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
353 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW BRUNSWICK         31.16N 81.54W
05/17/2016                   GLYNN              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMEREGENCY MANAGER REPORTED POWER LINES DOWNED ON BLYTHE
            ISLAND.

&&

KGUILLET

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
402 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

GAZ132>134-172045-
JEFF DAVIS GA-BACON GA-COFFEE GA-
402 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BACON...JEFF DAVIS
AND NORTHERN COFFEE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 402 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PRIDGEN...OR NEAR AMBROSE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAZLEHURST...BROXTON...AMBROSE...WEST GREEN...SNIPESVILLE...PRIDGEN AND
DENTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3176 8252 3175 8255 3174 8255 3174 8252
      3171 8252 3171 8250 3164 8247 3156 8305
      3160 8306 3162 8304 3164 8301 3166 8301
      3166 8300 3177 8300 3179 8290 3178 8287
      3182 8284 3184 8278 3185 8279 3193 8259
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 252DEG 25KT 3168 8300

HESS