Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1025 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

.UPDATE...

No major changes needed for going forecast. A shortwave trough
rounding the ridge of high pressure today should enhance lift across
the region and aid in thunderstorm development during afternoon
heating. Dangerous heat conditions will develop again today as temps
and humidity combine to produce heat index values in the 105 to 110
degree and above range. Peak values around 110 to 115 degrees are
expected across the Delta, where an Excessive Heat Warning is in
effect until 8 PM. Model forecast soundings and modified 12Z
soundings indicate around 3000-3500 J/kg of SBCAPE will be possible
across the area this afternoon. Modest mid-level lapse rates may help
to limit widespread severe weather chances, but drier air in the mid
levels and good mixing in the low levels will promote the chance for
strong to severe wind gusts with the stronger storms once again
today. Weak steering flow should push storms generally to the south,
with some convergence along the sea breeze expected to enhance precip
chances along and south of the Highway 84 corridor through southern
MS. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...Visible satellite imagery showed clear skies over the
region at 14Z. VFR conditions were being observed at all TAF sites
at mid morning. VFR conds will continue until isolated to scattered
TSRA development occurs this aftn and mainly over the eastern half of
MS. Light northwest winds are expected away from widely scattered
afternoon/early evening TSRA. VFR conditions are expected tonight
with only a brief period 10-12Z Sat of MVFR vsby restrictions. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 455 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016/

..OPPRESSIVE HEAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night...A weak disturbance
dropping south down the backside of the persistent upper level
"heat" ridge centered to our west was responsible for a fair amount
of thunderstorm activity late yesterday (especially across central
and eastern Mississippi). Analysis early this morning suggests
another one or two weak disturbances will probably pivot south into
our region through today, one of which being a remnant MCV emanating
from a decaying convective complex in the Middle Mississippi Valley
in the past few hours. Moisture, instability, and heat across the
region will remain quite highs through the at least the first half
of the day and this will do two things: Allow heat index values to
peak at dangerous levels and yield plenty of fuel for some locally
robust thunderstorm activity this afternoon. We have kept the
excessive heat warning going in western zones through this afternoon
with a heat advisory elsewhere and this heat advisory has been
extended for all areas through Saturday. We will defer to the day
shift to make a decision on whether a targeted limited risk should
be mentioned in the HWO after they do a morning post-sounding
assessment because the overall synoptic situation suggests that
while many strong storms will be possible, any truly severe storms
should likely be very isolated in nature.

Most of the convection should die off this evening with tomorrow the
bulk of daytime convection probably shifting toward the coast and
also north toward a frontal boundary heading into the Mid South.
This may allow temperatures to heat up a little more than today in
some areas, although increased mixing may limit late-day dewpoints
slightly and keep all areas from getting to excessive heat warning
criteria. The mentioned cold front will be slowly approaching
northern zones tomorrow evening through overnight and could keep
some shower and storm chances going for locations near the Highway
82 corridor well into the night. Elsewhere, anticipate most of the
activity to diminish in the evening. /BB/

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday night...The global models
continue to suggest that a weak frontal boundary will drop down into
the area on Sunday, along with PWATS climbing to 2.3-2.5 inches
across most of the area. Due to these factors, expect increased
thunderstorm activity across the area and slightly cooler high temps
in the low/mid 90s. Due to the very humid air over the area on
Sunday, heat indices will continue to climb above 105 for much of
the area once again.

On Monday the global models develop A Hybrid cut-off a low over the
southeast and also have varying solutions for the movement of this
low. The ECMWF is the strongest with this feature and slowly drifts
the low west over Alabama and keeps it almost stationary through
Thursday. The GFS is not as strong and drifts the low further west
over the area. The movement of this feature will dictate our weather
Monday through Thursday. Either way the models suggest plenty of
moisture with PWATS above 2.0 inches through the end of the period,
with scattered showers and thunderstorms each day in the extended.
With the increased moisture, clouds and diurnal thunderstorm
activity, expect slightly cooler temperatures for most of next week
with highs generally low/mid 90s./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       97  76  98  76 /  33  19  27  26
Meridian      98  75  99  76 /  31  20  27  30
Vicksburg     98  75  98  77 /  31  17  22  24
Hattiesburg   96  74  96  75 /  45  21  40  24
Natchez       95  75  96  76 /  36  18  36  22
Greenville    98  76  99  77 /  22  14  19  22
Greenwood     98  75  98  76 /  22  16  17  26

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ026>033-036>039-
     042>046-048>066-072>074.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-
     019-025-034-035-040-041-047.

     Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for
     MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-047.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

     Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-
     075.

     Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for
     ARZ074-075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
249 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-
041-047-062000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-WARREN-
249 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY

THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
PEAKING BETWEEN 110 AND 115 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 8 PM. AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS UNTIL 8 PM.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

ELEVATED HEAT ISSUES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS DELTA
THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL LEVEL OF HEAT STRESS MAY TEND TO
VERY GRADUALLY IMPROVE. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 110 DEGREES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

MSZ026>033-036>039-042>046-048>066-072>074-062000-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
249 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY

THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
PEAKING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 8
PM THIS EVENING. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS
UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY EVENING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

ELEVATED HEAT ISSUES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS DELTA
THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL LEVEL OF HEAT STRESS MAY TEND TO
VERY GRADUALLY IMPROVE. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 110 DEGREES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
EXTREME...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES FOR 3 OR
 MORE DAYS IN A ROW AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 107
 DEGREES.
SIGNIFICANT...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES
 AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES.
ELEVATED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 105 TO 110 DEGREES AND/OR AIR
 TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 103 DEGREES.
LIMITED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX NEAR 105 DEGREES AND/OR AIR
 TEMPERATURES 100 TO 103 DEGREES.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
329 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

MSZ029-032-033-052115-
OKTIBBEHA MS-CHOCTAW MS-WEBSTER MS-
329 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WEBSTER...
NORTHWESTERN OKTIBBEHA AND NORTHEASTERN CHOCTAW COUNTIES THROUGH 415
PM CDT...

AT 328 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER CUMBERLAND...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONTPELIER...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MABEN...MATHISTON...SHERWOOD...CUMBERLAND AND CLARKSON.

LAT...LON 3360 8902 3356 8902 3356 8899 3344 8907
      3354 8927 3367 8918
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 030DEG 6KT 3359 8912

LAMB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
351 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

MSZ043-052115-
MADISON MS-
351 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 351 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER CANTON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GLUCKSTADT AROUND 415 PM CDT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3249 8996 3250 8998 3248 8999 3249 9000
      3247 9002 3251 9018 3270 8999 3258 8988
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 037DEG 8KT 3259 9002

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
354 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

MSZ026>028-052115-
CARROLL MS-GRENADA MS-MONTGOMERY MS-
354 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...SOUTH
CENTRAL GRENADA AND NORTH CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM
CDT...

AT 353 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER ELLIOTT...OR NEAR GRENADA...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  JEFFERSON AND DUCK HILL AROUND 405 PM CDT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3376 8988 3377 8966 3354 8962 3356 8993
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 356DEG 22KT 3370 8977

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
413 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

MSZ050-051-052145-
NEWTON MS-SCOTT MS-
413 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 413 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LAWRENCE...OR 7 MILES EAST OF FOREST...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON
AND SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS:
LAKE.

LAT...LON 3242 8944 3241 8923 3224 8926 3227 8947
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 005DEG 11KT 3235 8935

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
420 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

MSZ032-033-038-052145-
OKTIBBEHA MS-WINSTON MS-CHOCTAW MS-
420 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN OKTIBBEHA...
SOUTHEASTERN CHOCTAW AND NORTHWESTERN WINSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM
CDT...

AT 420 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER ACKERMAN...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOUISVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT
15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ACKERMAN...CHESTER AND STURGIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

&&

LAT...LON 3339 8924 3339 8899 3317 8905 3320 8931
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 022DEG 11KT 3329 8918

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
428 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

MSZ049-052200-
RANKIN MS-
428 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL RANKIN COUNTY
UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 427 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR FANNIN...OR NEAR MADISON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSON...FANNIN...GOSHEN SPRINGS AND PISGAH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF ON OR NEAR ROSS BARNETT RESERVOIR...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO
10 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER
NOW! DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3232 8993 3235 9011 3239 9008 3240 9007
      3241 9007 3249 9000 3248 8999 3250 8998
      3248 8986
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 025DEG 14KT 3245 9000

CME