Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1025 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

.UPDATE...

No major changes needed for going forecast. A shortwave trough
rounding the ridge of high pressure today should enhance lift across
the region and aid in thunderstorm development during afternoon
heating. Dangerous heat conditions will develop again today as temps
and humidity combine to produce heat index values in the 105 to 110
degree and above range. Peak values around 110 to 115 degrees are
expected across the Delta, where an Excessive Heat Warning is in
effect until 8 PM. Model forecast soundings and modified 12Z
soundings indicate around 3000-3500 J/kg of SBCAPE will be possible
across the area this afternoon. Modest mid-level lapse rates may help
to limit widespread severe weather chances, but drier air in the mid
levels and good mixing in the low levels will promote the chance for
strong to severe wind gusts with the stronger storms once again
today. Weak steering flow should push storms generally to the south,
with some convergence along the sea breeze expected to enhance precip
chances along and south of the Highway 84 corridor through southern
MS. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...Visible satellite imagery showed clear skies over the
region at 14Z. VFR conditions were being observed at all TAF sites
at mid morning. VFR conds will continue until isolated to scattered
TSRA development occurs this aftn and mainly over the eastern half of
MS. Light northwest winds are expected away from widely scattered
afternoon/early evening TSRA. VFR conditions are expected tonight
with only a brief period 10-12Z Sat of MVFR vsby restrictions. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 455 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016/

..OPPRESSIVE HEAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night...A weak disturbance
dropping south down the backside of the persistent upper level
"heat" ridge centered to our west was responsible for a fair amount
of thunderstorm activity late yesterday (especially across central
and eastern Mississippi). Analysis early this morning suggests
another one or two weak disturbances will probably pivot south into
our region through today, one of which being a remnant MCV emanating
from a decaying convective complex in the Middle Mississippi Valley
in the past few hours. Moisture, instability, and heat across the
region will remain quite highs through the at least the first half
of the day and this will do two things: Allow heat index values to
peak at dangerous levels and yield plenty of fuel for some locally
robust thunderstorm activity this afternoon. We have kept the
excessive heat warning going in western zones through this afternoon
with a heat advisory elsewhere and this heat advisory has been
extended for all areas through Saturday. We will defer to the day
shift to make a decision on whether a targeted limited risk should
be mentioned in the HWO after they do a morning post-sounding
assessment because the overall synoptic situation suggests that
while many strong storms will be possible, any truly severe storms
should likely be very isolated in nature.

Most of the convection should die off this evening with tomorrow the
bulk of daytime convection probably shifting toward the coast and
also north toward a frontal boundary heading into the Mid South.
This may allow temperatures to heat up a little more than today in
some areas, although increased mixing may limit late-day dewpoints
slightly and keep all areas from getting to excessive heat warning
criteria. The mentioned cold front will be slowly approaching
northern zones tomorrow evening through overnight and could keep
some shower and storm chances going for locations near the Highway
82 corridor well into the night. Elsewhere, anticipate most of the
activity to diminish in the evening. /BB/

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday night...The global models
continue to suggest that a weak frontal boundary will drop down into
the area on Sunday, along with PWATS climbing to 2.3-2.5 inches
across most of the area. Due to these factors, expect increased
thunderstorm activity across the area and slightly cooler high temps
in the low/mid 90s. Due to the very humid air over the area on
Sunday, heat indices will continue to climb above 105 for much of
the area once again.

On Monday the global models develop A Hybrid cut-off a low over the
southeast and also have varying solutions for the movement of this
low. The ECMWF is the strongest with this feature and slowly drifts
the low west over Alabama and keeps it almost stationary through
Thursday. The GFS is not as strong and drifts the low further west
over the area. The movement of this feature will dictate our weather
Monday through Thursday. Either way the models suggest plenty of
moisture with PWATS above 2.0 inches through the end of the period,
with scattered showers and thunderstorms each day in the extended.
With the increased moisture, clouds and diurnal thunderstorm
activity, expect slightly cooler temperatures for most of next week
with highs generally low/mid 90s./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       97  76  98  76 /  33  19  27  26
Meridian      98  75  99  76 /  31  20  27  30
Vicksburg     98  75  98  77 /  31  17  22  24
Hattiesburg   96  74  96  75 /  45  21  40  24
Natchez       95  75  96  76 /  36  18  36  22
Greenville    98  76  99  77 /  22  14  19  22
Greenwood     98  75  98  76 /  22  16  17  26

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ026>033-036>039-
     042>046-048>066-072>074.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-
     019-025-034-035-040-041-047.

     Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for
     MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-047.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

     Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-
     075.

     Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for
     ARZ074-075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
249 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-
041-047-062000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-WARREN-
249 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY

THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
PEAKING BETWEEN 110 AND 115 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 8 PM. AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS UNTIL 8 PM.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

ELEVATED HEAT ISSUES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS DELTA
THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL LEVEL OF HEAT STRESS MAY TEND TO
VERY GRADUALLY IMPROVE. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 110 DEGREES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

MSZ026>033-036>039-042>046-048>066-072>074-062000-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
249 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY

THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
PEAKING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 8
PM THIS EVENING. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS
UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY EVENING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

ELEVATED HEAT ISSUES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS DELTA
THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL LEVEL OF HEAT STRESS MAY TEND TO
VERY GRADUALLY IMPROVE. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 110 DEGREES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
EXTREME...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES FOR 3 OR
 MORE DAYS IN A ROW AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 107
 DEGREES.
SIGNIFICANT...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES
 AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES.
ELEVATED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 105 TO 110 DEGREES AND/OR AIR
 TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 103 DEGREES.
LIMITED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX NEAR 105 DEGREES AND/OR AIR
 TEMPERATURES 100 TO 103 DEGREES.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
316 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

MSZ040-047-052030-
ISSAQUENA MS-WARREN MS-
316 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WARREN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ISSAQUENA COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 316 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR VALLEY PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OAK RIDGE AROUND 330 PM CDT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3265 9089 3266 9073 3264 9071 3264 9069
      3263 9070 3262 9072 3262 9069 3259 9069
      3259 9066 3255 9065 3254 9065 3244 9060
      3244 9088
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 336DEG 13KT 3263 9076

CME