Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
454 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...No big changes to the forecast this run. The surface
ridge holds through the week, but a few upper level disturbances will
skirt across the west and north. Looks like seabreeze development and
old boundaries will also push up into south just about every
afternoon. Went with the guidance for the most part pops and temps
seemed good. Periods of clouds and rain will likely keep the heat
index values down for the next couple days. After clouds cleared, a
few locations briefly reached 105 in the west, could see more of the
same through mid week.

Around Thursday, a cold front moves through the mid south and sweeps
across the northern zones. Rain chances were not great but models
show some lift and lapse rates were pretty good for the northwest
zones. Another disturbance approaches on Friday. Moisture transport
was much better with that system, but the strong upper ridge in the
west and ridging to the southeast, may steer the system away from
the area. Again the northern zones may seem some storm development as
the complex passes. A few more boundaries and disturbances come close
to the area through the weekend, maintaining a good chance of rain
for much of the area. It looks the system for Saturday and Sunday may
dip as far south as central mississippi, with a few weak disturbances
moving from the Gulf. The HWO was clear for now.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon and
evening. Isolated to scattered TSRA will continue and pose a risk of
brief lowering of ceilings and visibility to IFR/MVFR at the
impacted TAF sites. These conditions should last until 12/02Z with
MVFR ceilings and visibilities in stratus and fog developing after
12/06Z./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  93  74  94 /  19  19  11  19
Meridian      71  92  72  93 /  17  17  13  22
Vicksburg     73  94  74  94 /  20  18   7  17
Hattiesburg   74  93  74  93 /  19  33  13  43
Natchez       74  93  74  93 /  19  26   9  29
Greenville    74  95  74  95 /  18   9   6   7
Greenwood     73  94  73  94 /  18  10   7  10

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

7/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
101 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
121815-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
101 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...EAST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

26

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
200 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MSZ029>031-033-038-039-111945-
OKTIBBEHA MS-NOXUBEE MS-WINSTON MS-WEBSTER MS-LOWNDES MS-CLAY MS-
200 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
WEBSTER...OKTIBBEHA...WESTERN NOXUBEE...SOUTHWESTERN
LOWNDES...NORTHEASTERN WINSTON AND CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 159 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTH OF PYLAND TO NEAR LONGVIEW
TO MILLCREEK. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MILLCREEK AND BETHEDEN AROUND 205 PM CDT.
  LONGVIEW AROUND 210 PM CDT.
  STARKVILLE AND CRAIG SPRINGS AROUND 215 PM CDT.
  MASHULAVILLE AROUND 230 PM CDT.
  OKTOC AND SESSUMS AROUND 235 PM CDT.
  GRIFFITH AROUND 240 PM CDT.
  WEST POINT...CRAWFORD AND PALA ALTO AROUND 245 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE ARTESIA AND MANTEE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 8862 3309 8903 3344 8904 3374 8915
      3374 8904 3375 8903 3376 8893 3381 8893
      3379 8874 3374 8872 3368 8872 3368 8869
      3334 8854
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 290DEG 21KT 3376 8910 3342 8897 3314 8896

GRG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
322 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MSZ030-031-039-112045-
NOXUBEE MS-LOWNDES MS-CLAY MS-
322 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN NOXUBEE...LOWNDES
AND SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 321 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR KOLOLA SPRINGS TO NEAR DEERBROOK.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  PRAIRIE POINT AROUND 330 PM CDT.
  CALEDONIA AND BIGBEE VALLEY AROUND 335 PM CDT.
  PICKENSVILLE AROUND 345 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3305 8833 3307 8860 3368 8860 3367 8849
      3366 8852 3365 8851 3369 8837 3374 8833
      3374 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 274DEG 18KT 3369 8841 3322 8844

DC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
347 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MSZ031-039-112100-
NOXUBEE MS-LOWNDES MS-
347 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN NOXUBEE
AND SOUTHEASTERN LOWNDES COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 346 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR STEENS TO NEAR PRAIRIE POINT.
MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  COLUMBUS AND STEENS AROUND 350 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3311 8832 3307 8841 3356 8837 3366 8826
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 229DEG 14KT 3353 8832 3319 8835

EEC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
452 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MSZ053-054-059-112230-
CLAIBORNE MS-JEFFERSON MS-COPIAH MS-
452 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL COPIAH...
SOUTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE AND EASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM
CDT...

AT 451 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER BLUE HILL...OR 27 MILES WEST OF BROOKHAVEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  UNION CHURCH AROUND 455 PM CDT.
  BLUE HILL AROUND 500 PM CDT.
  MCBRIDE AND PLEASANT HILL AROUND 510 PM CDT.
  PEYTON AND PATTISON AROUND 525 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3171 9103 3198 9099 3179 9064 3161 9084
      3161 9089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 214DEG 14KT 3173 9088

DC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
602 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

LAZ007-008-112345-
MOREHOUSE LA-WEST CARROLL LA-
602 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL WEST CARROLL AND
NORTHEASTERN MOREHOUSE PARISHES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 602 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER GOODWILL...OR 19 MILES WEST OF LAKE PROVIDENCE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OAK GROVE AROUND 640 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE FOREST AND PIONEER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3295 9156 3286 9134 3282 9135 3282 9134
      3276 9134 3264 9146 3274 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 204DEG 14KT 3276 9152

DC