Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
338 pm cdt Wed Jul 6 2016

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night.
Latest Rap analysis and satellite imagery showed the ArkLaMiss under
flat upper ridging which was centered over the Southern Plains. Area
radars were picking up scattered convection across our southern
counties. Mid afternoon temps were running into the lower to middle
90s with heat indexes from 102 to 107.

For this afternoon expect the scattered convection across the
southeast to dissipate by early this evening. This will give way to
dry muggy conditions for the overnight hours. Flat upper ridging will
rebuild during the short term. Hi-Res and models shows that the best
limited chance of convection will be restricted to our southern
counties. However on Friday night our chances of convection will
slowly build into the northwest delta region ahead of a short wave.
Once again soundings shows that there will be good instability. So
any isolated storms that do develop will have the potential to become
strong to severe with some gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall.
As far as temperatures are concern heat advisory criteria looks to
continue through Thursday afternoon. There continues to be that
potential as we push into Friday and Friday night. Daily highs will
be generally in the middle 90s with dewpoints in the middle 70s./17/

LONG TERM...Saturday through next Wednesday
For the period expect warm and muggy conditions to continue.
Saturday will be the start of the subtle break-down of the overhead
subtropical ridge in our vicinity. This should open the door for at
least weak disturbances to migrate southeast into portions of the
region into early next week, although any actual frontal boundaries
should likely remain stalled out north of the forecast area. The
influence of these disturbances should be highest over northern and
eastern zones generally where PoPs range from 30 to 50 percent each
afternoon from Saturday through Tuesday. In these areas even some
overnight thunderstorm activity cannot be rule out. Elsewhere, the
overall coverage of showers and storms should be less and this could
still open the door for some heat concerns there. However, the
prospect of decent convective coverage yields too much uncertainty
of temp details at this juncture to consider heat threats extending
into the weekend in the current HWO/Graphics. /17/BB/

AVIATION...

The primary storm threat area late this afternoon will be in the HBG
area. A similar low level moisture and flow pattern should lead to
another round of primarily MVFR category ceilings early Thursday
morning, mixing up into VFR range by late morning with VFR
conditions prevailing thereafter. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       76  96  76  97 /   8  12   3  10
Meridian      75  96  76  97 /   7  17   4   8
Vicksburg     76  96  76  97 /   6   6   3  10
Hattiesburg   76  97  76  96 /   6  17   4  19
Natchez       77  95  76  95 /   5  12   3  18
Greenville    77  96  77  97 /   5   5   3   6
Greenwood     77  95  77  96 /   5   6   3   7

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ018-019-025-027-
     034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>062.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ074-075.

17/BB/EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
235 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-027-034>036-
040>043-047>049-053>055-059>062-071945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-CARROLL-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
235 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THURSDAY

DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THURSDAY WITH PEAK
HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 106 AND 110 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON HOURS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE
FIFTY-FIVE CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES RANGING FROM 102 TO 105 DEGREES.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

MSZ026-028>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-063>066-072>074-
071945-
GRENADA-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
235 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THURSDAY

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THURSDAY WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 102 AND 105 DEGREES IN THE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON
HOURS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE INTERSTATE FIFTY-FIVE
CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES RANGING FROM 102 TO 105 DEGREES.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
EXTREME...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES FOR 3 OR
 MORE DAYS IN A ROW AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 107
 DEGREES.
SIGNIFICANT...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES
 AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES.
ELEVATED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 105 TO 110 DEGREES AND/OR AIR
 TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 103 DEGREES.
LIMITED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX NEAR 105 DEGREES AND/OR AIR
 TEMPERATURES 100 TO 103 DEGREES.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
320 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

MSZ062-062100-
LINCOLN MS-
320 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL 400
PM CDT...

AT 320 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR WEST LINCOLN...OR NEAR BROOKHAVEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ENTERPRISE AROUND 340 PM CDT.
  BROOKHAVEN AROUND 350 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3153 9063 3170 9041 3169 9041 3169 9038
      3170 9038 3170 9029 3164 9024 3149 9024
      3135 9058
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 235DEG 13KT 3150 9050

19

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