Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
423 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

This afternoon through Thursday night...

Scattered storms have developed late this afternoon over the
southeast half of the ArkLaMiss and these will continue to pose a
limited threat for severe weather for the next couple of hours.
Expect the severe threat and precipitation coverage to diminish
quickly as we go into the early evening.

A building subtropical ridge will help to intensify the low level
thermal ridge (H850 temps ~ 21 to 22 C) over the forecast over the
next 24 to 48 hours. Above normal heat will prevail as a result over
the next few days with rather sparse afternoon and evening convective
precipitation coverage. After coordination with neighboring WFOs, we
have gone ahead and issued a heat advisory for the western half of
the area for the next couple of days with heat indices expected to
reach the 106-110. At least a limited threat for dangerous heat
stress is expected to continue over eastern MS. /EC/

LONG TERM...Thursday through next Monday...

The long term period is still looking quite hot, but there is
potential for at least subtle relief for portions of the region this
weekend into the start of next week.

First off, local weather should be dominated by vast subtropical
ridging over the south-central to southeastern CONUS Friday. Decent
low level southerly flow vectors these days could be enough to bring
at least isolated thunderstorms to far southern zones in the
afternoon hours, as a result of inland-cascading seabreeze
penetration. Otherwise, the air mass should remain rather capped to
convection with highs in the mid to upper 90s while heat index values
border on oppressive (peaking near 105 degrees).

By this weekend the previously-mentioned vast subtropical ridge
stretching latitudinally across the vicinity is showing signs in
model consensus of breaking down a bit, with perhaps the biggest
weakness extending down into the Lower Mississippi Valley (if the
latest operational European model is to be believed). Important to
point that model consensus does not suggest an impact of a large
disturbance or front in our region but enough lessening of
subsidence and capping to activate what should likely be high
diurnally-driven instability. Probability of precipitation in these
periods kept at tame levels (20-40 percent) owing to lack of major
inclement features, but confidence is increasing that there may be
enough afternoon storms about to blunt heat a bit late in the day.
However, before storms break out these days the combination of heat
and humidity could still easily push heat index values above 100
degrees at least briefly. If storms only achieve isolated coverage
these days then heat could be a larger concern. There also may be
some opportunity for some potent pulse storms considering lapse
rates could border on impressive.

For now there is enough uncertainty for this weekend into early next
week to refrain from mentioning anything in the HWO/graphics for
those time periods at this juncture. However, we will continue with
the limited heat mention in the HWO for Thursday and Friday, when
convective coverage is not such as question mark. Still can't rule
out that a heat advisory might not be needed for portions of the
area on one or both of these days. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...Afternoon activity is evolving as expected and will
continue to focus flight restrictions based off radar trends and
storm progression. Look for VFR conditions to prevail in the wake of
this activity for much of the evening with a trend to some MVFR
ceilings with the most likely window for that being between 11-14z.
/CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       76  95  76  96 /  17  22   8   5
Meridian      76  95  75  97 /  24  22   7   7
Vicksburg     77  95  77  96 /  11  17   6   6
Hattiesburg   77  94  76  96 /  30  28   6  13
Natchez       77  93  76  94 /  14  23   5  12
Greenville    77  95  77  97 /  11  16   5   5
Greenwood     75  94  75  95 /  16  14   5   5

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
     MSZ018-019-025-027-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>062.

LA...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
     ARZ074-075.

&&

/EC/BB/CME/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
246 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-027-034>036-
040>043-047>049-053-059>061-062000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-CARROLL-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
246 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...WEDNESDAY

DANGEROUS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK
HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 106 AND 110 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

DANGEROUS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY WITH
PEAK HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 106 AND 110 DEGREES. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. LINGERING HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND
POSSIBLY THE WEEKEND.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

MSZ026-028>033-037>039-044>046-050-062000-
GRENADA-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-
246 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK HEAT
INDICES TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 102 AND 105 DEGREES.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY WITH PEAK HEAT
INDICES TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 102 AND 105 DEGREES. LINGERING HEAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY THE WEEKEND.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

MSZ051-052-056>058-063>066-072>074-062000-
NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
246 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 6
PM. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTING ARE THE MAIN
THREATS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK HEAT
INDICES TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 102 AND 105 DEGREES.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY WITH PEAK HEAT
INDICES TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 102 AND 105 DEGREES. LINGERING HEAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY THE WEEKEND.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

MSZ054-055-062-062000-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-LINCOLN-
246 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...WEDNESDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 6
PM. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTING ARE THE MAIN
THREATS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK HEAT
INDICES TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 102 AND 105 DEGREES.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

DANGEROUS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY WITH
PEAK HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 106 AND 110 DEGREES. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. LINGERING HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND
POSSIBLY THE WEEKEND.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

CME

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
EXTREME...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES FOR 3 OR
 MORE DAYS IN A ROW AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 107
 DEGREES.
SIGNIFICANT...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES
 AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES.
ELEVATED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 105 TO 110 DEGREES AND/OR AIR
 TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 103 DEGREES.
LIMITED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX NEAR 105 DEGREES AND/OR AIR
 TEMPERATURES 100 TO 103 DEGREES.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
625 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PHILADELPHIA            32.77N 89.11W
07/05/2016                   NESHOBA            MS   PUBLIC

            TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ACROSS GOLF COURSE ROAD. A VEHICLE
            STRUCK THE TREE BUT NO INJURIES OCCURRED. TREE WAS ALSO
            DOWNED ON FROG LEVEL ROAD. A TREE WAS DOWNED NEAR HOLY
            CROSS CATHOLIC CHURCH...TAKING DOWN THREE POWER POLES
            CAUSING POWER OUTAGES.

&&

DCOX

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