Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
413 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...Scattered convection has developed across the area this
afternoon, but focused a bit farther south than earlier anticipated.
The mid/high cloud blowoff from overnight convection to the west may
have helped limit activity farther northwest in the CWA, while
outflow from it helped spark new activity over LA (which has since
spread into MS). As anticipated several of these storms have been
gusty, with downed trees already reported. Outside of rain-cooled
areas, temps are in the mid to upper 90s. Dewpoints remain in the
70s, and have spiked as high as 80 at TVR shortly after a shower
moved through. This has allowed heat indices to top out in the
105-107 range across NE Louisiana and SW Mississippi. Through the
remainder of the afternoon, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
continue to push NE across the area, with potential for scattered
damaging wind gusts due to increased low level flow. A bit of a break
in the action is anticipated by the early evening/sunset time frame
continuing into the first half of the night.

Additional convection is developing south of a stalled surface front
from the Mid South through the upper Tennessee Valley, with more
development expected later tonight farther west toward the ArkLaTex.
Through the overnight, models have consistently been showing some of
this activity developing south and eastward into parts of north
Mississippi, with decent potential for showers and thunderstorms
along the Hwy 82 corridor late overnight into Tuesday morning. Based
on the anticipated orientation/movement of this convection, locally
heavy rainfall is possible and localized flooding can't be ruled out.
We don't have enough confidence to pin down a particular area for a
mention of flooding risk in the HWO at this point, but this is
something we'll be keeping an eye on later tonight. With considerable
low level moisture pooling, it is expected to be rather warm
overnight, with low temps in the upper 70s at many locations -
possibly near record high minimums.

The weak trough responsible for today's uptick in precip will
continue rather slowly eastward, so residual scattered convection
will remain into both Tuesday and Wednesday. With temps remaining in
the mid 90s and dewpoints still in the 70s, we will continue to flirt
with Heat Advisory criteria. Given uncertainty with respect to the
impact precip/clouds may play on temps tomorrow, we have opted not to
expand the advisory at this point. Instead we will maintain a limited
threat for dangerous heat in the HWO/graphics and allow the midnight
shift to decide on any further action. /DL/

Thursday through the Weekend...The main story for the extended is
the continuation of above normal heat as subtropical ridging holds
quite firm across the southern half of the CONUS. One slight positive
is that more typical Bermuda Ridge positioning should favor a decent
amount of southerly low level flow throughout the period, with
lighter and "more offshore" flow focused well to our east. It is in
the latter areas where heat may be most atypical (although, as
stated, it will be quite hot across the Lower Mississippi Valley as
well).

Rain chances Thursday and Friday should be pretty meager and mainly
confined to a few afternoon showers and storms in southern zones. By
next weekend models are coming around more to the idea of another
disturbance or two dropping down the backside of the reorganizing
upper ridge and perhaps provide at least some low-end chances of
tstorms for many areas.

Through the extended heat indices could be an issue and the current
forecast is advertising heat index values peaking in the 100 to 105
degree range in most areas each day. Certainly not out of the realm
of possibility that a heat advisory or two may be necessary for some
spots as we hone in on specific periods, but considering how
continuous the hot weather has been (and looks to continue to be) it
may be wise to hold off on issuing advisories in very marginal
situations. For now we will advertise a limited heat risk in the
HWO/graphics through the end of the work week./BB

&&

.AVIATION...The threat for TSRA will continue through early evening,
with a lesser threat generally continuing overnight and persisting
into Tuesday. Lower ceilings, primarily MVFR, are expected to
redevelop late tonight in the southwesterly low level flow. The lower
ceilings should break and mix up to VFR category by late Tuesday
morning. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       78  94  76  95 /  28  31  11  24
Meridian      78  96  76  96 /  29  36  18  29
Vicksburg     79  94  78  94 /  30  27   8  22
Hattiesburg   77  95  77  93 /  25  32   9  30
Natchez       78  92  76  92 /  14  27   7  26
Greenville    77  93  77  95 /  47  44  10  12
Greenwood     75  91  74  93 /  53  55  14  16

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ040-047-053>055-
     059>064-072.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...None.
&&

DL/EC/BB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
254 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
052000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
254 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...EAST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TUESDAY

A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OF UP TO 60 MPH BETWEEN NOW AND 900 PM. A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO
REACH NEAR 105 FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

ABOVE NORMAL HEAT WILL PERSIST DURING THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 105 DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
EXTREME...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES FOR 3 OR
 MORE DAYS IN A ROW AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 107
 DEGREES.
SIGNIFICANT...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES
 AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES.
ELEVATED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 105 TO 110 DEGREES AND/OR AIR
 TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 103 DEGREES.
LIMITED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX NEAR 105 DEGREES AND/OR AIR
 TEMPERATURES 100 TO 103 DEGREES.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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