Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1112 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...The forecast for the remainder of the day was updated
to increase POP across much of the area, but especially across the
NW. So far this morning, it is mostly sunny across the region with
the exception of increased mid level clouds over the far NW. Temps
are already near 90 areawide, and dewpoints remain in the mid to
upper 70s over most of the area (parts of E MS have mixed to the
lower 70s). There's little in the way of isolated shower activity so
far. On a larger scale, discontinuous convection extends from East
TX where there's a dying MCS northeastward through AR. Outflow from
this convection was noted on recent satellite imagery moving into SW
Arkansas and NE Louisiana. Heading into this afternoon, GFS/NAM
progged PW increase to nearly 2.5" across parts of the Delta. Along
with increasing surface-based instability, a respectable (for the
summer) LLJ, and subtle upper troughing edging southward toward the
area, this should allow for decent convective coverage by this
afternoon particularly across the northwest half of the area.

Severe threat: Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows 30-40 kt 850mb flow
with 0-1 km bulk shear of around 20-25 kt. During the summer, this
is typically sufficient for some bowing segments with damaging wind
gusts. In fact, CAM guidance max hourly wind gust output is
indicating this type of activity this afternoon, by shortly after
18z. Will maintain current severe threat in the HWO/graphics, but we
did bump up timing a touch.

Heat concerns: With little mixing expected, dewpoints will likely
remain in at least the mid 70s through much of the day over the area
currently under a Heat Advisory. Updated hourly temp forecast
(slightly lower hourly values) resulted in somewhat more marginal
heat indices in these areas, but with max heat index still near 105
across most of the area. Thus, no changes will be made to the
advisory, especially given the number of people who will be
outdoors today. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...An abundance of low level moisture is leading to plenty
of MVFR category ceilings across the forecast area this morning.
With continued heating, the ceilings will mix upward into VFR
category, but there will be an increasing chance for TSRA,
particularly at GLH/GWO this afternoon.  The TSRA threat will be
slightly lower and later in time as you go farther east; generally
speaking, the threat will continue through the night into Tuesday
with the greatest threat for northern TAF sites.

Lower ceilings, MVFR to perhaps as low as IFR, are expected to
redevelop late tonight with continued southwest flow. The lower
ceilings should break and mix up to VFR category by late Tuesday
morning. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016/
SHORT TERM...Showers and storms will continue to be possible tonight
into Tuesday morning for much of the area with overnight lows only
falling into the mid 70s. The chances for showers and storms will
continue on Tuesday as another short wave moves across the area. The
low level flow will be weaker along with a little less moisture, but
with afternoon heating a strong storm or two will be possible
Tuesday afternoon. Another hot day is on tap with heat indices
ranging form 100 to 105, with the hottest temperatures in the west.
Overnight lows Tuesday night will only fall into the mid 70s once
again./15/

LONG TERM...Wednesday through the Weekend...The main story for the
extended is the continuation of above normal heat as subtropical
ridging holds quite firm across the southern half of the CONUS. One
slight positive is that more typical Bermuda Ridge positioning
should favor a decent amount of southerly low level flow throughout
the period, with lighter and "more offshore" flow focused well to
our east. It is in the latter areas where heat may be most atypical
(although, as stated, it will be quite hot across the
Lower Mississippi Valley as well).

On Wednesday the minor disturbance dropping into the ridge in our
vicinity in the short term could still have its influence linger, at
least in eastern zones. In these latter areas 10 to 30 percent
coverage of diurnally-driven convection should be achieved. Rain
chances Thursday and Friday should be pretty meager and mainly
confined to a few afternoon showers and storms in southern zones. By
next weekend models are coming around more to the idea of another
disturbance or two dropping down the backside of the reorganizing
upper ridge and perhaps provide at least some low-end chances of
tstorms for many areas.

Through the extended heat indices could be an issue and the current
forecast is advertising heat index values peaking in the 100 to 105
degree range in most areas each day. Certainly not out of the realm
of possibility that a heat advisory or two may be necessary for some
spots as we hone in on specific periods, but considering how
continuous the hot weather has been (and looks to continue to be) it
may be wise to hold off on issuing advisories in very marginal
situations. For now we will advertise a limited heat risk in the
HWO/graphics from Wednesday through the end of the work week./BB/

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ040-047-053>055-059>064-072.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...None.
&&

DL/EC/15/BB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
154 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

MSZ059>061-041945-
ADAMS MS-FRANKLIN MS-JEFFERSON MS-
154 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
FRANKLIN... NORTHEASTERN ADAMS AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM
CDT...

AT 153 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A CLUSSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CRANFIELD...OR 12 MILES EAST OF NATCHEZ...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  STAMPLEY AROUND 200 PM CDT.
  HAMBURG AROUND 205 PM CDT.
  MCNAIR AROUND 210 PM CDT.
  FAYETTE AROUND 215 PM CDT.
  RED LICK AROUND 230 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE ROXIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3164 9140 3164 9139 3166 9140 3186 9103
      3186 9101 3165 9074 3143 9108
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 230DEG 26KT 3158 9117

DC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
239 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

MSZ061-062-042015-
LINCOLN MS-FRANKLIN MS-
239 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND
CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 239 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR MCCALL CREEK...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROOKHAVEN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WEST LINCOLN AROUND 250 PM CDT.
  VAUGHN AROUND 255 PM CDT.
  LOYD STAR AROUND 300 PM CDT.
  BROOKHAVEN AROUND 310 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3154 9081 3170 9058 3170 9056 3145 9033
      3136 9066
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 234DEG 27KT 3146 9064

DC